Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

...Beneficial rains today with a threat for strong storms...

.DISCUSSION...
A quasi-stationary front is analyzed just to the north of the
forecast area across Marion/Flagler counties. Up to this point,
the heaviest rain and accompanying thunderstorms have been
confined close to the front where surface convergence has aligned
with increasingly energetic flow (despite relatively weak surface
instability). Further to the south, its a different story where
moisture is a bit lower and the area is removed further from the
stronger mid/upper level dynamics; however, its this area that
will experience robust daytime heating. Expect convection over
the northeastern Gulf to spread across the peninsula through the
remainder of the day, with cold pool and outflow boundaries
enhancing the potential for strong thunderstorms as they coincide
with increasing surface instability, especially across
central/southern areas.

As noted in this morning's SPC update, unidirectional southwest
to west flow will support multicell clusters capable of producing
isolated hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening.

Clouds and precip should hold max temps to the mid and upper 70s
across the far north. Offshore flow and sfc heating should produce
upper 80s/near 90 over the Treasure coast counties with near
record highs possible.

Tonight (Previous)...Upper divergence increases this evening
underneath RR quadrant of 130 kt upper jet. This will maintain
likely rain chances across the area with rain ending from north to
south overnight as cold front finally makes a purposeful move
across the area. While rain chances will remain high into tonight,
the risk of strong storms should end with sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...
High coverage of showers and thunderstorms, currently across the
I-4 corridor, will spread south into this afternoon. Periods of
MVFR and isolated IFR conds will occur with the convection during
the day along with gusty winds near 35-40 knots in stronger storms
from MCO south. Prevailing winds will shift out of the northwest
late this afternoon at LEE/DAB behind the cold front which will
reach south of SUA early Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped
across central FL and the adjacent Atlantic. This boundary and
associated convection is producing a chaotic wind environment
early this morning but wind speeds are below 15 knots. Expect a
W/SW flow to resume across all the waters later this morning with
numerous showers and storms pushing offshore. Strong wind gusts of
35-40 knots will accompany a few storms especially from the Cape
southward. Winds will shift out of the north late this afternoon
across the northern waters behind the front. A surge of 20 knot
north winds is expected to overspread the northern waters after
midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  59  72  59 /  90  80  10   0
MCO  82  61  78  59 /  80  80  10   0
MLB  86  64  75  63 /  80  80  20  10
VRB  87  66  76  63 /  70  70  30  10
LEE  78  58  78  57 /  90  80  10   0
SFB  79  60  77  57 /  90  80  10   0
ORL  81  60  77  59 /  80  80  10   0
FPR  88  65  75  63 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

Ulrich/Johnson/Glitto/Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-110130-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A frontal boundary will combine with deep moisture and instability
to produce a high coverage of rain and lightning storms. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms ongoing across Lake and Volusia
counties this morning will shift southward across Seminole,
Orange, Osceola and Brevard counties later this morning and early
afternoon and the Treasure coast and Okeechobee county by late
afternoon. A few strong storms will occur mainly from the Cape and
Orlando southward containing wind gusts around 50 mph and small
hail. Cooler temperatures aloft may also produce more frequent
lightning strikes.

Isolated threat of damaging hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph this
afternoon.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Heavy rains will occur over Lake and Volusia counties where one
to two inches of rain fell overnight. Additional amounts of one to
two inches are expected with locally up to 4 inches possible.
Farther south across Orlando metro and the Space and Treasure
coasts, widespread rainfall amounts of one half to one inch are
expected with locally higher amounts near 2 inches. The torrential
rains will produce temporary flooding of some roads and poor
drainage areas especially in Lake and Volusia counties.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist at the beaches of east
central Florida. Always swim within sight of a lifeguard and
never swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous lightning storms are forecast to push
offshore around 20 knots, initially north of the Cape this morning
then shifting south of the Cape from mid day into the afternoon.
The primary threats to boaters on inland lakes, the intracoastal
and Atlantic waters will be wind gusts 35 to 45 knots and frequent
lightning strikes. Be aware of storms approaching from the west.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A surge of north winds will spread southward over the local
Atlantic waters overnight and Wednesday behind a cold front.
Boating conditions will become hazardous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Hazardous boating conditions will exist on Wednesday with seas 7
to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream.

A strong cold front is forecast to cross the area Sunday or Sunday
night and bring a risk of lightning storms containing gusty winds
and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Kelly/Smith

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