Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

234 
WWUS52 KMLB 082007
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
407 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

FLC069-095-082030-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180608T2030Z/
Lake FL-Orange FL-
407 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE AND SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

At 407 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lake Louisa, or
9 miles northwest of Bay Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ocoee, Winter Garden, Windermere, Bay Lake and Clermont. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8151 2835 8149 2835 8179 2853 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 269DEG 22KT 2845 8170 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Rodriguez

510 
WWUS52 KMLB 082024
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

FLC069-095-082034-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180608T2030Z/
Lake FL-Orange FL-
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2860 8151 2835 8149 2835 8179 2853 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 269DEG 22KT 2845 8161 

$$

Rodriguez

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Current/Tonight...
Both east and west coast sea breezes have formed and were drifting
slowly inland as of mid aftn...west coast breeze further inland due
to the prevailing H100-H70 W/SW flow. Similar to Thu, sea breeze
merger should occur along the spine of the FL Peninsula, though the
strength of the mean H100-H70 flow has diminished to 5-10KTS. This
weaker flow suggests slower storm motion that will increase heavy
rain potential.

Early storm development north of the I-4 Corridor and along the
Treasure Coast will consume much of the available energy in those
regions by sunset. Will go with a mix of chc shra/slgt chc tsras in
these areas. Regions btwn the I-4 Corridor and SR-60 will see a
later seabreeze/mesoscale boundary collision, resulting in higher
evng storm potential...will paint this area with straight chc of
tsras. Convection ending by 04Z with partly cloudy skies afterwards.
Sfc dewpoints in the U60s/L70s suggest min temps on the same order.

Sat-Sun...
The mid-level closed low will lose its influence this weekend as it
drifts north and is absorbed by a secondary trof over the Midwest.
The Atlc ridge will respond by drifting north into south FL, though
the aforementioned trof merger will prevent the ridge axis from
moving north of the Jupiter Inlet/Lake-O region. Lcl pgrad will
slacken, causing W/SW steering flow to diminish and shift to the
S/SW.

Guidance indicates a slug of dry H85-H50 air over the NW GOMex
advecting into the I-4 Corridor over the weekend, while E/SE H100-
H70 flow around the base of the Atlc Ridge pulls a slug of low RH
air north of Hispaniola into the FL Peninsula. Guidance indicates
mean RH thru the H100-H70 lyr decreasing to less than 70pct on Sat,
and btwn 70-80pct on Sun...PWat values dropping to btwn 1.25"-1.50"
late Sat before recovering to 1.50"-1.75" Sun. Diminished moisture
supports a slightly drier fcst with PoPs AOB 40pct Sat, AOB 50pct
Sun. Southwest steering flow will continue to favor the eastern half
of the peninsula despite the lower coverage, as well as max temps in
the U80s/L90s...min temps in the L/M70s

Mon-Fri...(prev disc)
The Atlantic ridge axis will nudge northward into mid week with some
increase in southerly winds. Mean moisture levels will remain below
normal to start the week, particularly across northern sections,
with diurnal shower/thunderstorm chances generally in the 30-40
percent range. A slight increase in rain chances (40-50%) may occur
toward the middle of next week as deeper moisture rounds the
Atlantic ridge, favoring inland locales where sea breeze boundary
interaction is more likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Starting today with a similar patter to yesterday, as showers and
thunderstorms have developed early south along the Martin/St. Lucie
county costs, and north along a line from KLEE-KDAB. Expecting
additional showers/storms to develop across the interior mainly
along the east coast sea breeze, and then along any subsequent
outflow boundaries put out from the initial round of storms. Have
included TEMPO groups at all terminals indicating the most likely
time of strongest storms, however these may need to be adjusted
based on the interaction of outflow boundaries. Regardless,
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing IFR/MVFR
conditions. Strongest convection should be done by sunset, with
lingering stratiform rain with a few embedded lighting strikes
possible from KMCO to KDAB to KMLB. Rain should end by 09/02Z with
VFR conditions prevailing overnight into early Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight...Light to gentle SE wind arnd in the evening bcmg S/SW
overnight. Expect evening storms near the coast pushing offshore
into late evening and overnight...sfc gust potential 35-40KTS. Seas
2FT nearshore building to 2-3FT offshore.

Sat-Tue...The Atlantic ridge axis will drift north into the Jupiter
Inlet/Lake-O region this weekend, where it will hold position into
early next week. Southerly sfc/bndry lyr winds will prevail, bcmg
S/SE thru the day and W/SW overnight with the diurnal sea/land
breeze circulation. Seas generally AOB 2FT, up to 3FT in the Gulf
Stream. Primary hazard for small craft operators will be sct
thunderstorms moving offshore during the aftn/evng hrs. Winds and
seas locally higher in vicinity of showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  88  71  88 /  50  50  30  30
MCO  72  92  72  91 /  50  50  30  40
MLB  71  88  73  88 /  40  40  30  40
VRB  71  89  72  89 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  73  91  72  91 /  50  50  30  40
SFB  72  91  72  91 /  50  50  30  40
ORL  73  91  72  91 /  50  50  30  40
FPR  70  89  71  88 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Short/Mid Term....Bragaw
Aviation/Radar....Rodriguez
Impact WX/Radar...Lascody

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1116 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-090000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1116 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A mid to upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will provide
cool and dry air aloft across the area today.  This will lead to
very unstable conditions during daytime heating, so scattered strong
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and extend into evening.

Short range models suggest scattered storms will form along the east
coast sea breeze early this afternoon, especially along the Space
and Treasure Coasts, while west coast sea breeze storms move inland
towards Lake county.  A merger of the east and west coast boundaries
should ignite the strongest storms near the Interstate 4 corridor
late in the afternoon or early in the evening.

The main hazard will be frequent lightning strikes with some of the
storms.  A few storms could become severe and produce large hail and
damaging winds.

Those with outside activities should seek shelter as skies darken to
the west or thunder is heard in the distance.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Quick 2 or 3 inch downpours are possible with stronger and slower
moving storms. This will produce considerable ponding of water on
roadways and other poorly drained surfaces.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered strong storms are forecast to develop as the east and west
coast boundaries collide near the Interstate 4 corridor late this
afternoon.  These storms could then push back to the east coast from
about Cape Canaveral northward.  Strong wind gusts in excess of 40
knots will be possible with these storms.

Mariners should seek safe harbor well in advance of storms expected
in the afternoon and evening hours. Motion of the stronger storms
should be to the east around 10 knots, but very gusty winds will
rush out well ahead of the heavy rain and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Scattered storms are expected well into the upcoming week.  A few
will produce locally heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning strikes each afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather this afternoon and
evening and self activate if needed.

If severe wind or hail is observed please relay your report to
the National Weather Service in Melbourne at 3 2 1 2 5 5 0 2 1 2.

Lascody

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

FLZ141-081945-
Coastal Volusia-
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

At 312 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Smyrna
Beach, moving southeast at around 5 to 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, South Daytona and Daytona
Beach Shores.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Funnel clouds can occasionally touch down and produce brief small
tornadoes. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

LAT...LON 2913 8091 2909 8090 2902 8085 2891 8095
      2903 8106 2907 8108 2908 8107 2917 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 316DEG 11KT 2906 8098

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

FLZ144-082000-
Southern Lake County FL-
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Groveland, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Groveland, Mascotte, Howey-In-the-hills, Ferndale and Clermont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2858 8195 2873 8182 2858 8165 2854 8166
      2844 8166 2835 8189 2843 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 228DEG 20KT 2851 8186

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

FLZ141-082030-
Coastal Volusia FL-
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Smyrna Beach, moving southeast at 10 mph. This storm has also
exhibited broad rotation from time to time.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Oak Hill and Daytona Beach
Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 8090 2890 8076 2890 8097 2913 8099
      2917 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 317DEG 11KT 2904 8091

Sedlock