Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Melbourne, FL

255 
WWUS52 KMLB 241703
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
103 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

FLC111-241712-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180424T1715Z/
St. Lucie FL-
103 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has 
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2735 8022 2733 8039 2747 8044 2755 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 247DEG 19KT 2748 8023 

$$

DWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Well dvlpd storm system centered over the OH/TN river valleys has
push a cold front south of the I-4 Corridor.  Latest analysis shows
the front extending from Cape Canaveral to Ft. Myers, co-located
with a band of enhanced H100-H70 moisture with mean RH values btwn
80-90pct...tight moisture gradient behind the front with areas north
of I-4 dropping blo 50pct. Mrng RAOBs depict the moisture boundary
as well with PWat values btwn 1.25-1.50" at KXMR/KTBW/KMFL, and btwn
0.50"-0.75" at KJAX/KTAE.

RAP40 analysis shows the bulk of mid/upr lvl dynamic support pushing
off the Space/Treasure/Gold Coasts as of mid mrng, H85-H30 omega and
H30-H20 divergence bull's eyes over the Gulf Stream. There are
secondary maxima west of Ft. Myers and the FL Keys, but these are
embedded within deep westerly flow and appear poised to pass largely
south of Lake-O. Respectable thermodynamic instability ahead of the
front with H70 temps btwn 6C/7C and H50 temps btwn -10C/-11C,
yielding lapse rates arnd 6.5C/KM thru the lyr.

Mrng fcst package looks on target as precip will be confined to
areas south of I-4 this aftn, and increasingly south of Lake-K and
Sebastian Inlet as the front continues its slow march through
central FL.  Latest vsbl sat pics show "lumpy cu" confined to areas
south of Cape Canaveral/Lake-K, sct-bkn low stratocu to the north.
Will shave precip coverage back to Osceola/S Brevard based on this
trend. No other changes necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 25/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 25/02Z...W/SW 8-12KTS...N of KISM-KMLB ocnl sfc G18-
22KTS. Btwn 25/02Z-25/05Z...bcmg W/SW 5-8KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 24/17Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas BKN020-030/lcl
BKN010-020...S of KISM-KTIX areas BKN010-020/lcl BKN005-009. Btwn
24/17Z-24/24Z...S of KISM-KTIX nmrs MVFR shras/chc IFR tsras. Btwn
25/00Z-25/03Z...S of KVRB-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras. &&

.MARINE...
Storm system over the OH/TN valleys will push a cold front into the
Treasure Coast waters this aftn, then south of Jupiter Inlet thru
midnight. Gentle to moderate W/SW breeze will prevail thru late
aftn, bcmg light to gentle aft sunset. Seas 2-4FT nearshore and 3-
5FT offshore, mainly in an easterly swell. Shras likely/chc tsras
over the Treasure Coast waters, chc shras/slgt chc tsras over the
Space Coast waters.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Sharp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1121 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-250330-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1121 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
mainly south of Melbourne ahead of a cool front that will move
through east central Florida later today and this evening. The
main coverage area will include the Treasure Coast and locations
in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Localized heavy rain, gusty winds
up to 40 mph, and cloud to ground lightning strikes will occur
with a few stronger storms.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
An east swell will contribute to a moderate risk for rip currents
at east central Florida beaches today. Remember to always swim
within sight of lifeguard and do not swim alone.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few storms may produce wind gusts to around 34 knots across the
coastal waters adjacent to the Treasure Coast this afternoon, as
well as inland waterways and lakes.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Seas up to 5 to 6 feet offshore today north of Melbourne and
tonight across all of the offshore east central waters will make
conditions poor for small craft. Small craft should exercise
caution venturing well offshore today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
An east swell will bring an elevated risk of rip currents to east
central Florida beaches through late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

MRV/DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1201 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

FLZ059-064-241700-
St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
1201 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1158 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
12 miles west of Port Saint Lucie, moving northeast at 15 to 20 mph.
Another was moving offshore of Lake Okeechobee near J and S Fish
Camp.

Small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Stuart and Indiantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2697 8007 2697 8014 2696 8014 2696 8061
      2699 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2711 8067
      2731 8068 2755 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 239DEG 15KT 2729 8057

DWS