Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Melbourne, FL

984 
WWUS52 KMLB 071939
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
339 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2018

FLC061-093-111-071949-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180407T2015Z/
St. Lucie FL-Okeechobee FL-Indian River FL-
339 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2748 8080 2754 8085 2776 8055 2754 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 244DEG 22KT 2756 8068 

$$

Bragaw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1009 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

.UPDATE...

...A few strong storms possible this afternoon-evening...

Today...We're not going to change anything from the previous
forecast.  Large pre-frontal convective complex along the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast from the western Florida Panhandle to the
Mississippi Delta is progged to push east/southeast and remain north
and west of the local area through sunset.  Therefore, the big
question is how much convection will get going out ahead of this
complex during max heating.  Morning soundings at Tampa and Cape
Canaveral showed precipitable water of about 1.2 inches.  The HRRR
model doesn't show much change in these values through early
afternoon, then starts to develop isolated convection mid-late
afternoon.  The focus for this convection will be a diffuse west
coast sea breeze which moves inland and across the peninsula quickly
due to an increasing southwest gradient wind. Larger inland lakes
will also likely help to focus isolated convection.

This convective evolution looks reasonable as recent surface
observations along the west coast show some dew points around 70. A
few storms could become strong due to rather hot temps in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees, and dry, quite cold mid levels. The lack
of an east coast sea breeze though should limit spatial extent of
this convection.

Late this afternoon and into evening, the models show pre-frontal
moisture reaching our northern areas.  Low level wind fields will be
reaching their strongest magnitude at this time due to deepening low
pressure in Georgia/South Carolina, so if moistening occurs early
enough to capture some of the daytime instability, more robust
convection with a greater coverage could develop.  The HRRR has been
lukewarm with this possibility, but will have to watch areas
northward from Orlando/Cape Canaveral, especially if a larger scale
outflow boundary drops down out of north Florida.

We've been briefing folks about the potential for isolated strong to
marginally severe storms producing hail and damaging wind gusts, and
don't see anything to differ significantly from that thinking.

Otherwise, it will be breezy with the increasing southwest winds
making for a hot day with readings reaching the mid 80s to 90
degrees.  The hottest temps will be over the south half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds will increase 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
today ahead of a cold front.  Coverage of daytime heating generated
showers/storms looks limited, so cannot insert tempo groups into the
TAFs.  An initial batch should march across the peninsula in
association with the west coast sea breeze between about 18 and 23z.
A potential for higher coverage exists near/west of I-4 from about
19-24z.  Storms could become strong and produce brief wind gusts
over 35 knots and small hail.  The storms should diminish by late
evening.  Some late night low stratus should develop as a weakening
frontal boundary moves into central Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon-evening...Conditions for small craft operation will
be poor, especially in the Gulf Stream and over inland lakes.
Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots and may be gusty to
30 mph over land.  Additionally, quick moving showers/storms should
develop by late afternoon and extend into evening. Though coverage
looks isolated to scattered, there is a threat for strong wind gusts
and even some hail.  Movement will be to the east/northeast around
40 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
This afternoon...Potential for rapid fire spread.  Southwest winds
20 to 25 mph with some gusts near 30 mph will occur.  Any potential
rain wetting will be limited and there is also a risk for lightning
strikes.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record highs today:

DAB 7-Apr  90 1956
MCO 7-Apr  92 1908
SFB 7-Apr  91 2014
MLB 7-Apr  91 2014
VRB 7-Apr  89 1968
FPR 7-Apr  92 2014

Vero Beach looks to have the best chance to tie/break their 50-yr
old record high.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Lascody
IMPACT WX...Ulrich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
602 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-080000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
602 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Moisture and deep layer southwest flow will increase ahead of a
cold front. Above normal temperatures in the low levels will
combine with cold air aloft to produce instability and generate
scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon into early
evening. A few strong storms are possible containing frequent
lightning strikes, downburst winds up to 50 mph and hail. An
isolated severe storm containing damaging winds near 60 mph will
be possible over Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange and north Brevard
counties. The time period of greatest threat will be from 3 to 7
pm. Storm motion will be toward the east northeast at 30 to 35
mph.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist at the beaches of east
central Florida. Always swim within sight of a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Fast moving showers and isolated storms will push toward the east
northeast at 30 to 35 mph and across portions of the intracoastal
and nearshore Atlantic waters this afternoon and early evening. A
few storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 35 to 45
knots and frequent lightning strikes.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Small craft should exercise caution over the Gulf Stream and
offshore Atlantic waters for south to southwest winds 15 to 20
knots today, becoming west at the same speeds tonight.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
Continued dry vegetation and gusty southwest winds will contribute
to a High Fire Danger across portions of east central Florida. Any
new or existing fires will spread rapidly.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A cold front is forecast to stall across south central Florida
Sunday then lift north as a warm front Monday, before finally
settling south of the area Wednesday. This will keep our weather
unsettled with a chance for beneficial rains early next week along
with lightning storms. While severe weather is not expected at
this time, gusty downburst winds and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning will be the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are requested to monitor the weather and self activate
if needed.

Kelly