Lake Wind Advisory 5, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
310 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Fast Moving Showers and a Scattered Storms Expected Today...

...Strong Cold Frontal Passage Brings Another Significant Cool Down
And Hazardous Boating/Beach Conditions into Mid Week...

Today...A potent 500 mb shortwave trough will swing eastward from
ern TN/N GA to SC this afternoon and induce a deepening area off the
Carolinas this afternoon. Favorable lift ahead of the trough and
upper level divergence across the srn peninsula will allow numerous
showers and scattered storms to develop and move quickly eastward
today. During the early morning hours a broken line of convection is
forecast to develop mainly north of a Kissimmee to Titusville line
which will then progress ESE through the forecast area into the
afternoon. Early morning convection across the Gulf will also move
eastward and may affect the far southern counties including Martin
around sunrise. Strong low level wind fields around the system and a
tightening pressure gradient will allow winds to become breezy into
late morning and windy this afternoon. Short range guidance and
model wind progs indicate the strongest winds should occur from mid
to late afternoon as low level winds become W/WNW into this
afternoon. Will raise a Lake Wind Advisory all areas for the
afternoon hours with winds increasing to around 20 mph with gusts to
30-35 mph expected. SPC continues to advertise a marginal risk for
severe weather. Strength of low level wind fields would support a
very low risk for severe winds with some gusts to 40-50 mph possible
with any strong convection. As the front moves through all areas by
late afternoon and evening clearing is expected behind the surface
front which will end precip chances from north to south. Highs will
range from the lower 70s north to mid to upper 70s srn zones.

Tonight...Breezy winds will continue into the evening from the NW
and then diminish to 5-10 mph overnight. Skies will be mainly clear
with cold temperatures in the 40s across the area.

Tue-Wed...Post-frontal conditions with surface high pressure
building out of the High Plains toward the Gulf Coast States during
this period. A weak, reinforcing dry cold front will push across the
area on Wed. Light NW/N flow will dominate surface winds as
conditions remain dry under a very cool airmass. PWAT values will
lower to around one-quarter inch for much of this period. Expect
MSunny skies during the day and MClear skies at night. Aloft,
troughing will dominate over the eastern CONUS as ridging slowly
amplifies across the central CONUS. An unseasonably cool start to
each morning with L-M40s most locations, perhaps U30s for normally
colder rural locations. High temperatures should slowly recover into
the 60s each day. May need to add patchy frost wording into the
grids/zones for some areas Wed overnight into early Thu morning.

Thu-Mon...Broad surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast
States/GOMEX early in the period will slowly transition eastward
into the western Altc Fri overnight/early Sat morning as the
associated ridge axis slides south of central FL. Reinforcing high
pressure will move off of the mid Atlc coast by late Sat as the
ECMWF tries to push a surface front into N/N-C FL. Aloft, W/NW flow
will rule, with any decent shortwave energy generally north of
Florida. It does appear that mid-level ridging will begin to amplify
slightly late in the period from around the southern Gulf and Cuba.
Will continue to keep conditions dry with no precip for now.

After another cool day on Thu with highs in the 60s, temperatures
will gradually begin to moderate back to normal by Sat, then
continuing the warming trend Sun-Mon. M70s for highs on Fri
(interior) and L70s near coast. Sat's highs in the U70s coast and
perhaps L80s into the interior. Sun's highs in the U70s/80F near
coast and L80s inland. Mon's highs in the L80s coast and M80s
interior. Lows Fri morning again the L-M40s, except U40s/50F St.
Lucie/Martin coasts. Generally 50s for lows Sat/Sun mornings and
perhaps L60s by Mon morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strengthening low level winds fields from the WSW/W into late
morning support LLWS for nrn terminals. Latest guidance has a broken
line of SHRA approaching nrn terminals between 11z-15z with
scattered SHRA/isold TSRA in the vcnty of srn zones aft 11z until
18z today. Clearing is expected for nrn terminals into mid afternoon
as the front moves through the area and switches surface winds to
the NW. Precip chances will end from KMLB-KSUA 19z-21z. VFR flying
wx expected tonight with mostly clear skies and decreasing NW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...West winds to 15-20 knots this morning will switch to the
WNW/NW into mid to late afternoon and increase to 25-30 knots
offshore. Only change to advisory was to upgrade nrn/central
offshore waters to a Gale Warning from 4 pm to 2 am tonight. Seas
will build quickly offshore and in the gulf stream through late
afternoon up to 8 to 10 feet. Scattered showers and some storms
will move quickly from the mainland to the Atlc this afternoon with
gusty winds over 34 knots possible with the strongest convection.

Tonight...Will continue the Gale Warning offshore north of Sebastian
past late evening otherwise an SCA will be in effect for the
remainder of the waters. Seas will peak up to 8 to 11 feet across
the offshore gulf stream waters.

Tue-Wed...High pressure will slowly build into the area from the
northwest as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes into Tue evening.
The gradient tightens again Tue overnight into Wed with the approach
of a weak, dry reinforcing front. NW winds around 15 kts over the
open Atlc will decrease thru the day/early evening, becoming
light/variable for a short bit late Tue afternoon/evening. Winds
will then respond to the approaching boundary becoming NWRLY again
and increasing 15-18 kts away from the coast late toward daybreak
and continuing into Wed afternoon before decreasing slightly late in
the day. Initial seas 4-6 ft near shore and 6-8 ft Gulf Stream will
subside to 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore by the end of the
day on Tue. On Wed, winds will drive seas back to 4-5 ft near shore
and 5-6 ft offshore before another general relaxing here Wed
overnight.

Thu-Fri...High pressure continues near the area. Initial NWRLY winds
10-15 kts will decrease to below 10 kts and become variable late in
the day into the evening with speeds AOB 10 kts thru the remainder
of the period. Seas generally 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore
subsiding to AOB 3 ft areawide Thu overnight, then 2 ft or less
Fri/Fri night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Min RHs will drop to between 37 and 41 percent across the
nrn interior in the late afternoon. Winds will become windy from the
west in the afternoon with gusts to 30-35 mph possible. The
strengthening winds may pose a control issue for any existing fires.

Tue-Wed...Much drier/cooler air behind the latest cold front as
unseasonably colder temperatures dominate this period. Generally
light NW winds on Tue with a slight increase in NW winds on Wed as a
dry cold front moves across the area. The drier air will push low
min RH values into the 25-30pct range west of I-95 on Tue and
generally over the entire coverage warning area on Wed.

Thu-Fri...Very dry airmass remains over the area with unseasonably
cool air continuing into Thu night before a slow warming trend
begins for Fri. With high pressure over the area wind speeds will
remain light and directional component variable. Min RH values will
fall to 20-30pct over much of ECFL each day with driest air over the
interior. The immediate Treasure Coast and interior Martin County
may remain 34-40 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  42  64  43 /  70   0   0   0
MCO  74  45  69  44 /  70   0   0   0
MLB  77  44  67  45 /  70   0   0   0
VRB  78  45  68  44 /  70   0   0   0
LEE  73  43  67  43 /  70   0   0   0
SFB  73  44  67  43 /  70   0   0   0
ORL  74  45  68  46 /  70   0   0   0
FPR  78  44  68  45 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-
     Martin-Northern Brevard County-Northern Lake County-
     Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
     Southern Lake County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-
     20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
MID-LONG TERM....Sedlock

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