Freeze Warning 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
943 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...Freeze Watch for Northern Portions of East Central Florida
Tonight...

.UPDATE...

Current...Another cold start to the morning with widespread
freezing conditions away from the Space and Treasure Coasts. It
appears that the coast was spared a freeze as west to northwest
winds kept the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent a rapid
drop in temperatures.

Today...Surface high pressure building across the deep south will
veer winds from the NW/NNW this morning to northerly this afternoon.
Meanwhile, mid and upper level energy traversing the Gulf will
bring an increase in cirrus through the day. Very dry air
filtering down the peninsula will be modified some along the
coast as winds develop a slight onshore component. Temps will
recover slowly into the afternoon, with highs ranging from around
50 NW of I-4 to the upper 50s along the Treasure Coast.

Tonight...Confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is lower
compared to previous nights for a couple of reasons. 1) Mid/upper
level shortwave moving over the eastern Gulf will spread
considerable cirrus overhead, hindering radiational cooling both
locally and to our north. 2) A weak onshore component to the low-
level flow is expected as winds continue to veer overnight,
bringing some moisture and higher dew points off of the Atlantic.
Despite this, still expect another night of well-below normal
temperatures, ranging from the lower 30s along and to the
northwest of the I-4 corridor and mid 30s across inland sections
of the Space and Treasure Coasts. Warmer temps, closer to 40, will
be found closer to the beaches south of Cape Canaveral. A freeze
watch remains in effect across the north.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with a gradual uptick in cirrus expected over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...NW/NNW winds will continue to near 20 knots into late
morning especially offshore and then decrease some into the
afternoon. Will continue Advisory for the srn gulf stream waters
into mid morning and across the offshore waters into the afternoon.

Tonight...Northerly winds will decrease to 10-15 knots with seas
dropping to 3-5 ft near shore and 4-6 ft offshore in the
evening...and then subsiding a bit more after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Lowest RHs around 25 percent expected across well interior
sections generally from Orlando and Kissimmee westward. Min RHs
closer to the east coast will be above 35 percent. No headlines will
be needed today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  32  54  42 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  54  35  57  42 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  55  34  59  45 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  56  36  61  47 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  52  32  56  40 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  51  33  56  41 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  53  36  57  43 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  57  37  62  46 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Coastal Volusia County-Inland Volusia County-Northern
     Brevard County-Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-
     Southern Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

Ulrich/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1236 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-060545-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1236 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
High pressure across the Southeast will keep a cold northwest to
northerly flow across the area into tonight. For tonight, low
temperatures are again forecast near or below freezing across
northern portions of the area where a Freeze Warning is in
effect for Lake and Volusia counties from 3 am tonight to 8 am
Saturday morning. Lows across Seminole, Orange, and Northern
Brevard are forecast to remain a couple degrees over the freezing
mark.  Lows in the mid 30s are expected across Okeechobee county
and the Treasure coast tonight with some lower 30s possible across
normally colder inland locations south of a Kissimmee to
Melbourne line. Remember to protect pets, sensitive plants and
exposed pipes from freezing temperatures.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
An ocean swell will produce a moderate rip current risk at east
central Florida beaches. Swim near a lifeguard if you enter the
chilly surf.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Northerly winds to 15 to 20 knots will keep seas elevated across
the offshore and gulf stream waters into the afternoon. This will
produce poor to hazardous boating conditions for small craft. A
small craft advisory remains in a effect for all of the offshore
waters through this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Marine conditions for small craft will remain poor offshore on
Saturday and becoming hazardous for small craft Sunday into Monday
as onshore winds increase.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Combs/Volkmer