Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
220 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium to High.

A swath of persistent lift within an unstable and very moist airmass
will kick off multiple rounds of showers and storms this afternoon
through Monday. A few storms could approach or reach severe limits
this afternoon into tonight given the instability and marginal
shear. The bigger concern may be heavy rainfall, as storms could go
through the same areas into tonight, especially south of Madison and
Milwaukee. Fortunately, these areas have mostly stayed away from the
higher rainfall totals over the last couple weeks and can thus take
more water than areas farther north.

Mostly cloudy skies and high dewpoints will result in above normal
temps tonight. The clouds and rain should keep highs back to near
normal during the day tomorrow.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Will continue high chance to likely convection threat Monday night
as increasing low level southerly winds pull surge of additional
warm air and moisture advection across southern WI.  Later in the
night, the advection shifts north of the area, taking with it the
bulk of the convection.  Short term guidance in reasonable agreement
on warm front advancing into central WI by 12Z/04.  May be dry for
most of Tuesday as main forcing during the day to the north and
west.  However due to high moisture and potential for outflow
boundaries in the area, wl continue lower chance potential. Shifting
steering winds to more zonal pattern across the northern Plains will
carry a cold front into northern and central WI Tuesday night, and
across southern WI on Wednesday.  ECMWF has southward progression a
bit slower, and doesn't clear the southeast until later Wednesday
night. Threat for heavy rainfall to continue through this
period.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium
trending Low.

Increasing zonal flow across the upper midwest and Great Lakes due
to passing Canadian low pressue will carry a weak front across
southern WI later Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Both the GFS and
ECMWF have been slowing the southeast progression of the front so
will be keeping chances for convection in through Thursday. The
threat for strong to severe convection will be shifting south with
the front by Wednesday night.  However due to the proximity of the
front, need to hang onto chances into Thursday.  Despite a northeast
drier air flow around passing high pressure to the north, the upper
level steering winds will remain WSW into the weekend.  A tightening
baroclinic zone will be situated the region.  This would allow any
isentropic lift over the zone to possibly generate more -shra for
the area Friday through Sunday.  The Medium range guidance in
considerable disagreement regarding the location and evolution of a
central/southern Plains short wave trof and its eventual track.  GFS
brings weak low pressure and widespread precipitation to the area
Friday and Saturday, while Canadian NH is much drier for our area.
The ECMWF shows the potential for showers in the cool easterly flow
but no significant precipitation or passing low pressure.  GFS
ensembles show considerable variability at the end of the week, and
WPC Blended forecast favoring the ECMWF and ECMWF blends along with
the GEFS mean over the GFS.  For now, wl have a mention of
precipitation chances for the later periods, but expect QPF amounts
to remain lighter.  Daytime temperatures will cool off considerably
behind the passing front on Thursday with more seasonal temperatures
continuing through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Showers and storms are likely this
afternoon into tonight and again on Monday. MVFR ceilings should
improve to VFR for the most part by late afternoon. VFR conditions
are then expected for this evening into tonight, outside of lower
ceilings and visibilities within thunderstorms. May see another
round of MVFR ceilings Monday morning into early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels for the next few days. There will be a chance for
thunderstorms each day into mid-week.

Will have to keep an eye out for more fog tomorrow when winds become
onshore again.

&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-031415-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
904 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid
afternoon through the evening. Heavy rainfall could produce
localized flash flooding. Damaging winds are the main threat,
although large hail is possible.

Record river flooding will continue along the Baraboo River while
new flooding is expected to occur across the Rock and Crawfish
River basins. Also, high water levels causing dam gate releases
will continue to cause areas of flooding in parts of downtown
Madison.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

River flooding is expected in central Wisconsin through late in
the week. Areal flooding will also continue in parts of downtown
Madison.

There are chances for thunderstorms into Friday. Heavy rain and
flash flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon and tonight. Also,
your rainfall reports will be appreciated through the next week to
assist with areal and river flooding forecasts.

LMZ643>646-031415-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
904 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of scattered thunderstorms is likely from late
afternoon through the evening. Damaging winds are the main threat,
although large hail is possible.Thunderstorms will gradually diminish from southwest to northeast
this morning.

Fog may become dense at times in the near shore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms through Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH FREEDOM           43.46N 89.86W
09/02/2018  M1.15 INCH       SAUK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S BLANCHARDVILLE      42.78N 89.86W
09/02/2018  M1.50 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALLENTON                43.43N 88.34W
09/02/2018  M1.08 INCH       WASHINGTON         WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BELOIT                  42.53N 89.02W
09/02/2018  M2.47 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONROE                  42.60N 89.64W
09/02/2018  M1.19 INCH       GREEN              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BRODHEAD                42.62N 89.38W
09/02/2018  M1.30 INCH       GREEN              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PORTAGE                 43.55N 89.47W
09/02/2018  M1.67 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S GRAFTON             43.31N 87.95W
09/02/2018  M1.01 INCH       OZAUKEE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1017 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE DODGEVILLE         43.00N 90.10W
09/02/2018  M1.41 INCH       IOWA               WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PC

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