Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
224 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Rest of this Afternoon through Tonight..Forecast Confidence is
Medium...

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move into the western
portions of the forecast area around 4 PM or so. These should then
move east with time through the evening hours. Additional
development can be expected along various outflow boundaries,
making for what will likely be a rather messy evening of
convection. Instability is quite high across the area, so once
convection does develop, there will be an associated wind gust
threat. There will also be a threat for large hail, though this
will be mitigated somewhat by high freezing levels. The tornado
threat is low but non-zero, with eastward surging line segments
and boundary interactions as the most likely features from which
to see a brief tornado.

Additional thunderstorm development is then expected late this
evening into the overnight as the low level jet noses into the
area. The most widespread activity late tonight should be across
central Wisconsin, though a few scattered storms may develop
across the southern portion of the state.

Along with the threat for severe weather, heavy rain and flooding
remain a significant concern. With PWATs in excess of 2 inches,
lots of CAPE and high freezing levels, rainfall rates will be very
high with any convection this afternoon. Even with progressive
movement, today's storms could easily produce a quick 1-2" of rain
in less than an hour. The flood and flash flood threat will be
greatest across the central and southern forecast area, where
soils are most saturated from last week's rainfall.

Monday through Tuesday Morning - Confidence...Medium

Another hot and humid day is on tap for Monday as southwesterly
flow continues across southern Wisconsin. Appears as though there
will be some leftover showers extending from central Lake Michigan
southwest through southwest Wisconsin Monday morning downstream
from an elongated mid level shortwave trough. Once this convection
clears by late morning, temperatures should quickly rise while
surface dew points linger in the low to mid 70s. Heat indices max
out around the mid 90s in the afternoon, so a heat advisory is not
looking likely at this point.

Convection should then initiate in northwest Wisconsin Monday
afternoon and push east-southeast into the low level moisture
transport which will be nosing up into northern Wisconsin. The
main question is with how far south that MCS makes it and whether
it just stays up in northern WI along the strengthening LLJ. Given
the strong low level winds, unstable air mass feeding into it
(~2000 J/kg 0-3km MUCAPE) and decent 0-6km effective shear of
30-40kts, can not rule out the chance of severe thunderstorms for
southern Wisconsin, mainly on Monday night. Damaging winds, large
hail and heavy rainfall would be the main concerns. Precipitable
water will be up around 2", so some localized flash flooding is
certainly possible if the MCS holds up in any areas.

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Wednesday Night - Confidence...Medium
Fairly consistent idea between the 26.12z guidance in bringing the
cold front into the region on Tuesday but each model has it's own
idea of where the convection will initiate. With the ingredients
for severe weather will still be there with decent mid level winds
and an unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Just a
matter of what the previous night's convection does and where
boundaries set up. What happens on Wednesday is a bit up in the
air as the previous runs of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF had the front well
to the east but now the 26.12z NAM/ECMWF bring another shortwave
through the mid level flow and bring another round of convection
into the region.

Thursday through Saturday - Confidence...Medium to Low
With ridging in place for Thursday and Friday, it appears as
though there will be a few dry and seasonal days in there before
the front lifts back to the north by next weekend. Saturday
appears to be the next best chance for storms with the front again
cleared by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Thunderstorms are expected to affect the area this evening. There
will likely be a prolonged period of scattered activity from late
afternoon or early evening into the mid to late evening hours. Did
indicate via TEMPO groups the most likely timeframe for
thunderstorm impacts, which look to be during the early to mid
evening hours.

Outside of thunderstorm impacts, winds will start to increase from
the southwest later tonight and tomorrow. A few gusts around 20
knots are possible tomorrow mid day through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Areas of Dense Fog will remain possible into early evening,
especially north of North Point Light. Fog will be most widespread
near open waters.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this evening, and a few could
be strong or severe, with gusty winds. Frequent lightning is also
expected.

Southwest winds will gust to near Small Craft Advisory levels on
Monday and Tuesday. There will be additional thunderstorm chances
late Monday night and again on Tuesday.

A cold front will sweep through the area late Tuesday, with high
pressure building into the area on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>645.

&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...Halbach

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
407 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-272115-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
407 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected into tonight, some of which may be
severe. Damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to
localized flash flooding are the main severe threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Additional thunderstorms and an associated risk for heavy rain
can be expected again Monday and Tuesday. A few strong or severe
thunderstorms are possible during these times as well.

The possible heavy rain will result in a risk for flooding,
especially for areas that have seen very heavy rain over the last
week.

Heat index values may reach the middle 90s on Monday.

A chance for thunderstorms will return for Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into tonight.

LMZ643>646-272115-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
407 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely tonight, some of which may be severe and
produce large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are likely at times Monday through Tuesday. There
will be a chance that some of the storms may be severe each day
through Tuesday.

Gusty southwest winds may reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Monday and Tuesday.

A chance for thunderstorms will return for Friday and Saturday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
439 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE PRINCETON         43.84N 89.12W
08/26/2018  M50 MPH          GREEN LAKE         WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
442 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S ENDEAVOR            43.64N 89.47W
08/26/2018                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
445 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             MIDDLETON               43.10N 89.51W
08/26/2018  M0.75 INCH       DANE               WI   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

WOOD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
456 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW MIDDLETON         43.11N 89.53W
08/26/2018  M54 MPH          DANE               WI   AWOS

            KC29 MIDDLETON AIRPORT AWOS.

&&

WOOD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
459 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

WIZ058-059-064-065-262245-
Dodge-Waukesha-Washington-Jefferson-
459 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 458 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Columbus to near Deerfield. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...

Watertown, Hartford, Jefferson, Lake Mills, Mayville, Horicon,
Waterloo, Juneau, Johnson Creek, Hustisford, Iron Ridge, Ixonia,
Ashippun, Rubicon, Lebanon, Milford, Woodland, Reeseville, Neosho and
Richwood.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4303 8901 4340 8900 4349 8841 4320 8842
      4320 8854 4302 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 257DEG 31KT 4335 8901 4303 8915

BOXELL