Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
540 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.UPDATE...

The storms continue to work through the far southern tier of
counties. They will exit by 7-8 pm. The lowering sun angle and
extensive cloud cover are already working to diminish their
threat. Then look for a quite night. We may see some patchy dense
fog late tonight as winds will be light under clearing skies. The
rainfall this afternoon should help that fog formation in some
locations.

It does look like there was a quick spin-up of a tornado around
3:49 pm in the village of Deerfield east of Madison. See our local
storm report for details.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Some MVFR and IFR CIGS have accompanied the storms as they rolled
through southern Wisconsin, but this should all improve to VFR as
they push south. Look for VFR conditions through the TAF period.
The only exception will be the potential for some patchy fog
tonight. Light winds, clearing skies and recent rainfall could
lead to some fog close to sunrise Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The line of scattered showers/storms along a cold front should
exit to the south by mid evening with drier weather moving in behind
the boundary.

Friday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high.

We will be in solid persistence pattern into early next week.
We should stay dry with temperatures will be at or slightly above
seasonal normals with dew points in the tolerable level. Not
really low, but not too juicy.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The blocked pattern will become a bit more progressive by the
middle of next week. A surface cold front is forecast to come
through about this time, bringing us our next best chance for some
showers and storms. The upper pattern looks very complicated with
a couple of closed lows over the U.S. One over the east coast, the
other over the central plains.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

A line of showers and storms will continue to push south through
the area late this afternoon and evening. We could see some brief
MVFR conditions as the line moves through. The main threat with
these storms will be strong damaging winds. Look for the activity
to clear out by early to mid evening.

Otherwise, look for mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period.
There could be some patchy fog later tonight due to light winds
and clearing skies, especially in areas that got some rain.

MARINE...

Late afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be a threat to mariners,
mainly south of Port Washington. Things will quiet down by mid
evening with quiet conditions continuing through the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Davis
Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Friday Night through Thursday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101930-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in southern
Wisconsin. A few storms may become strong to severe through
early this evening south of a line from Milwaukee to Sauk City.
Isolated gusty winds and small hail are possible along with brief
heavy rain and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday but it is too
early to discern the severe weather risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters reports are appreciated through early this evening.

LMZ643>646-101930-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
218 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly south of
Milwaukee. A few storms may become strong to severe through early
this evening with isolated gusty winds and small hail possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
432 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

WIZ062-092200-
Iowa-
432 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT IOWA COUNTY...

At 432 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dodgeville,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Highland, Ridgeway, Linden,
Cobb, Rewey, Hollandale, Governor Dodge St Park, Edmund, Blue Mound
St Park, Blackhawk Lake Rec Area and London.

LAT...LON 4311 9043 4310 8984 4282 8984 4281 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 335DEG 29KT 4297 9021

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
449 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TORNADO          DEERFIELD               43.06N 89.07W
08/09/2018                   DANE               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND A GAS LEAK TO AN
            INDUSTRIAL BUILDING. 1 TREE DOWN ON A HOME
            AND ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE IN THE AREA.
            PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT DAMAGED IN DEERFIELD
            COMMUNITY PARK.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
456 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

WIZ070>072-092230-
Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
456 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WALWORTH...
SOUTHWESTERN RACINE AND WEST CENTRAL KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 456 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Elkhorn, moving
east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Bohners Lake, Powers Lake, Como,
Browns Lake, Burlington, Springfield, Honey Creek, Abells Corners,
Tibbets and Slades Corners.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4267 8862 4281 8855 4276 8826 4253 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 264DEG 13KT 4273 8848

MARQUARDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
458 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

WIZ064-069-070-092245-
Walworth-Rock-Jefferson-
458 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WALWORTH...NORTHEASTERN
ROCK AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 458 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Milton, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Whitewater, Fort Atkinson, Delavan, Milton, Edgerton,
Clinton, Palmyra, Sharon, Darien, Lake Koshkonong, Richmond, Fulton,
La Grange, Hebron, Tiffany, Busseyville, Allens Grove, Millard and
Avalon.

LAT...LON 4274 8932 4285 8915 4285 8901 4294 8901
      4299 8893 4292 8854 4283 8854 4249 8872
      4249 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 302DEG 22KT 4275 8893

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
526 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

WIZ065-066-070>072-092315-
Walworth-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-Kenosha-
526 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...
EASTERN WALWORTH...RACINE...SOUTHEASTERN WAUKESHA AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES...

At 526 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Waterford North to Richmond.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kenosha, Racine, Oak Creek, Mount Pleasant, Muskego, South Milwaukee,
Pleasant Prairie, Mukwonago, Sturtevant, Twin Lakes, Union Grove,
Paddock Lake, Camp Lake, Wind Lake, Rochester, Genoa City, Silver
Lake, Richmond, Wind Point and Big Bend.

LAT...LON 4292 8831 4291 8784 4288 8785 4285 8783
      4278 8775 4276 8777 4271 8777 4267 8779
      4266 8781 4261 8782 4259 8781 4252 8781
      4249 8780 4249 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 278DEG 29KT 4283 8823 4248 8829

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
544 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

WIZ068>070-092315-
Green-Walworth-Rock-
544 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GREEN...
SOUTHERN WALWORTH AND SOUTHERN ROCK COUNTIES...

At 544 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Geneva to near Monroe. Movement
was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beloit, Monroe, Lake Geneva, Brodhead, Williams Bay, Walworth,
Clinton, Fontana-On-Geneva Lake, Sharon, Pell Lake, Newark, Tiffany,
Browntown, Allens Grove, Shopiere, Afton, Juda and Delavan Lake.

LAT...LON 4251 8983 4264 8984 4257 8838 4249 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 289DEG 55KT 4255 8847 4264 8975

SPM