Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this afternoon into tonight - Confidence...Medium
Will let Excessive Heat Warning drop off at 4 pm here with
increasing shower/thunderstorm threat/cloud cover. Mid level
energy continues to pivot to our northeast with best dynamics and
0-6km shear to our north though the northern cwa is closer to the
better energy. Plenty of instability ahead of the front. Meso
progs continue to bring these storms across the cwa by 22 or 23z.
Then another small chance of additional showers or a pop up storm
with lower level wind shift line. The winds then do shift westerly
bringing in clearing skies.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
Surface ridging looks to be dominant. Airmass much more
comfortable with somewhat cooler air and much lower dew points. 925
temps will be lower in the 20-22c range.

Monday night and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A strong, west/southwest upper flow will extend across the U.S.
Canadian border areas, with an upper ridge across the ohio River
valley. *50 mb winds become more south on Tuesday, as the
Very warm and more humid air begins to return mainly west areas.

Increasing CAPE of 500 to 1000 Joules/kg also returns west, but
any forcing is weak, as surface high pressure remains over the
Great Lakes.

Independence Day and evening...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

The mid/upper ridge pushes into southern Wisconsin a little more
with thee upper jet across southern Canada.

Very warm and more humid air will return. Instability and
increasing CAPE also return, especially west areas, but forcing
remains weak. A few models are showing some thunderstorms along
the lake breeze front, but this is often overdone.

Thursday Through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models are showing a rather strong shortwave in the northern
stream jet across south central Canada north of lake Superior late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, so we will have a chance of
thunderstorms with a weak cold front later Thursday and Thursday
night.

Surface high pressure builds across the lake Superior area Friday
and is centered over the Great lakes Saturday.

Temperatures should reach up near 90 once again Thursday (with
heat indices pushing 100). Then temperatures should cool back a
few degrees Friday and Saturday, somewhat closer to normal values
for early July.

As the high shifts a little east Sunday, a weak south flow is
expected to warm temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Low pressure passing to the north with
broken convection ahead of the cold front. Gusty southerly winds
will be shifting to the west early. Better dynamics/shear focusing
best severe potential to the north of TAF sites. Meso models
hinting at some renewed shower potential early this evening. High
pressure proggd to settle in for Monday with quiet conditions and
a lighter wind regime.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned to Small Craft Advisory. A gusty
southerly wind regime will shift to the southwest then west this
evening in the wake of a frontal passage. A period of storms will
also affect the nearshore waters the rest of this afternoon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ065-
     066-070>072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ644>646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643.

&&

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Monday Night through Sunday...Hentz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-021730-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for Milwaukee,
Waukesha, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha counties. The heat index
will range from 97 to 102. Cooler weather arrives in the wake of
a cold front this evening.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early this evening. A
Tornado Watch is in effect for all of southern Wisconsin until 7
pm. Severe thunderstorms including damaging winds, large hail and
tornadoes are all possible.

There is a moderate swim risk today for beaches in Sheboygan and
Ozaukee County. Breaking waves and currents are expected. Stay
away from dangerous areas like piers, breakwalls, and river
outlets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Wednesday into early
Friday.

Heat index values could approach 100 degrees on Independence Day
and again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

LMZ643>646-021730-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from later this morning
into this evening due to gusty southerly winds. The highest waves
will be toward Sheboygan and out toward open water.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 7 pm. Severe thunderstorms
including damaging winds, large hail and waterspouts are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Wednesday through
early Friday.

Collar
www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
204 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ068-069-011945-
Green-Rock-
204 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GREEN AND
NORTHWESTERN ROCK COUNTIES...

At 204 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Brodhead,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Milton, Edgerton, Evansville, Brodhead, Orfordville,
Albany, Footville, Lake Koshkonong, Fulton, Magnolia, Hanover,
Cooksville, Juda and Indianford.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4250 8951 4256 8960 4261 8960 4285 8930
      4285 8898 4278 8889 4250 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 224DEG 42KT 4256 8944

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
217 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ063-064-069-011945-
Rock-Jefferson-Dane-
217 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ROCK...SOUTHEASTERN
DANE AND SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 217 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Evansville,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stoughton, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Lake Mills, Edgerton,
Evansville, Deerfield, Cambridge, Lake Ripley, Lake Koshkonong,
Fulton, Albion, Utica, Rockdale, Busseyville, Cooksville and
Indianford.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4279 8937 4284 8937 4317 8903 4298 8876
      4269 8923
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 223DEG 33KT 4281 8925

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
220 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ064-065-011945-
Waukesha-Jefferson-
220 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAUKESHA COUNTY...

At 219 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dousman, or
near Wales, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waukesha, Brookfield, Menomonee Falls, Pewaukee, Sussex, Hartland,
Delafield, Wales, Okauchee Lake, Oconomowoc, Merton, Dousman, North
Prairie, Lannon, Nashotah, Oconomowoc Lake, Chenequa, Stone Bank,
Genesee Depot and North Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4287 8843 4295 8856 4319 8840 4319 8807
      4317 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 218DEG 45KT 4301 8844

WOOD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ059-060-065-066-012015-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-Washington-Ozaukee-
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OZAUKEE...
NORTHWESTERN MILWAUKEE...NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 233 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Merton, or over
Hartland, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Milwaukee, Waukesha, Wauwatosa, Brookfield, Menomonee Falls,
Mequon, Pewaukee, Brown Deer, Grafton, Cedarburg, Sussex, Hartland,
Jackson, Bayside, Thiensville, Merton, Butler, River Hills, Lannon
and Richfield.

LAT...LON 4298 8823 4319 8842 4340 8809 4329 8790
      4324 8791 4321 8790 4319 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 223DEG 33KT 4312 8832

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
236 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ047-051-058-012015-
Dodge-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-
236 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GREEN LAKE...
CENTRAL FOND DU LAC AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 236 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Waupun, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, Beaver Dam, Waupun, North Fond Du Lac, Oakfield,
Rosendale, Brandon, Southern Lake Winnebago, Taycheedah, Lamartine,
Fox Lake, Alto, Fairwater, Peebles, Atwater, Astico, Oak Center,
Lagoda and West Rosendale.

LAT...LON 4379 8824 4343 8895 4358 8901 4363 8901
      4363 8903 4366 8904 4390 8865 4389 8841
      4394 8840 4394 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 233DEG 45KT 4362 8888

SPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
239 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

WIZ058-063-064-069-012030-
Dodge-Rock-Jefferson-Dane-
239 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DANE...CENTRAL
JEFFERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL DODGE COUNTIES...

At 239 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cambridge, or 9
miles north of Edgerton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Lake Mills, Johnson Creek,
Deerfield, Cambridge, Lac La Belle, Lake Ripley, Lake Koshkonong,
Ixonia, Lebanon, Milford, Utica, Richwood, Clyman, Rockdale,
Busseyville, Hubbleton and Pipersville.

LAT...LON 4284 8901 4297 8918 4335 8874 4320 8853
      4312 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 225DEG 39KT 4296 8902

SPM