Alert archive / Wisconsin / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

January 22, 20184 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this special weather statement at Jan 22, 2018, 7:49 PM CST for 4 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 22, 2018, 7:49 PM CST (01:49 UTC)
Expired: Jan 22, 2018, 8:30 PM CST
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI

Counties Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jan 22, 3:22 PM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 22, 3:22 PM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

An occluding low pressure system will progress across the lower
Great Lakes through Tuesday. The associated warm frontal zone
should hold steady along the Wisconsin/Illinois border, with some
warmer temperatures sneaking into the far south. With the frontal
zone in this vicinity, we'll need to keep an eye on our far south
into this evening as thunderstorms now developing over central
Illinois push north into southern Wisconsin this evening. While
convective allowing mesoscale models suggest these storms will
weaken over time (the most likely scenario as instability is
quite meager), there is a large amount of (largely unidirectional)
shear present. We'll need to watch for a very small severe
potential along our southern border, but this appears to be a
rather small risk.

Our attention then turns towards tonight, as the low pressure
system pulls away to our east. Precipitation will transition from
rain to snow as temperatures cool aloft, with a TROWAL and
frontogenesis band contributing to a burst of wet snow generally
after midnight tonight. Current model solutions place the highest
QPF across our southeast, where a Winter Weather Advisory for
impacts was issued. It's important to note that the placement of
mesoscale banding features such as this are tough for the synoptic
forecast models to nail down. As such, it's possible that the
location of this band may change. The key message is that
travelers late tonight into tomorrow morning should prepare for
the possibility of slippery/slushy roads resulting from the snow.
Reduced visibility is also possible late tonight/early tomorrow
morning in bursts of moderate snow.

Temperatures will fall below freezing late tonight, and will
remain there tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night will drop into the
teens.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring quiet weather Tuesday night through
Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, but will
quickly return to above normal conditions Thursday as southerly
winds develop on the back side of the departing high.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Low pressure is expected to pass by well to the north on Friday.
Southerly winds ahead of the surface trough will continue to pull
milder air into the region. Temperatures Friday will likely hit at
least the mid-40s, with 50 possible per some of the milder model
solutions.

Could see a little rain and a few snowflakes Friday night as the
trough passes through, though models overall look fairly dry with
the passage. The latest ECMWF is slower with the trough and
develops a surface low in the area, which would keep rain chances
going into Saturday. This is a new solution and is currently an
outlier, so kept the forecast dry for Saturday.

Milder temps will probably linger Saturday, with highs back to
near normal Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

Rain showers and drizzle will continue into this evening with low
ceilings mostly persisting. The exception is in the far south and
southeast, where ceilings may rise for a time into early evening,
before falling once again tonight. Visibility will bounce around
some, with lower periods occurring in between rain showers. There
remains a small chance for thunder into this evening, but
confidence is too low to include it in the TAFs.

A period of wet snow is expected late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with the
higher amounts possible in the Milwaukee, Kenosha, and Waukesha
areas.

&&

.MARINE...

Extended the small craft advisory into Tuesday night, with high
winds and waves likely to persist until this time. While
visibility has improved some in the nearshore waters this
afternoon, will keep the marine dense fog advisory in effect until
this evening, as poorer visibility may return. Mariners should
exercise caution.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Tuesday for WIZ065-066-069>072.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 12 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...SPM
Tuesday Night through Monday...DDV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 22, 6:06 PM CST, 1 hour 43 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
606 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
606 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening. There will be areas of dense fog this evening for far
southeast Wisconsin.

Rain will change to snow west to east late this evening and early
tonight. Amounts will generally be an inch or less, except for in
the southeast forecast area where 1 to 3 inches are possible. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

The combination of wet snow and colder temperatures will likely
result in slippery roads for the Tuesday morning commute,
especially in the southeast forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, though snowfall reports are
appreciated.

LMZ643>646-240015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
606 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and into
the evening for areas south of Port Washington.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 pm, as visibilities will
be below 1 mile at times.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight. Brisk
south to east winds will become northerly this evening and
overnight, resulting in building waves through the night.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

The Small Craft Advisory continues through late Tuesday evening as
gusty winds and high waves linger.

Another small craft advisory may be needed Friday into Saturday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 22, 7:04 PM CST, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
704 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             1 NNW WEST ALLIS        43.03N 88.04W
01/22/2018  E0.25 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS PEA, POSSIBLY
            A FEW MARBLE, SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
            FREEWAY.

&&

Local storm report, Jan 22, 7:07 PM CST, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
707 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             2 NW HALES CORNERS      42.96N 88.08W
01/22/2018  E0.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL COVERING THE FREEWAY WITH 1/2
            INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RELAYED VIA SKYWARN.

&&

Special weather statement, Jan 22, 7:07 PM CST, 42 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
707 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

WIZ059-060-065-066-230145-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-Washington-Ozaukee-
707 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OZAUKEE...
NORTHWESTERN MILWAUKEE...NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 707 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brookfield,
moving north at 20 mph.

This storm is producing large amounts of pea size hail which will
cover the ground. Drives and walks will likely be slippery after
this storm passes!

Locations impacted include...
Northern Milwaukee, Waukesha, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, Brookfield,
Menomonee Falls, Mequon, Whitefish Bay, Pewaukee, Brown Deer,
Grafton, Cedarburg, Sussex, Jackson, Fox Point, Elm Grove, Bayside,
Thiensville, Merton and Butler.

LAT...LON 4314 8790 4312 8790 4311 8789 4298 8823
      4329 8835 4335 8788 4330 8789 4328 8790
      4324 8791 4318 8788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 168DEG 16KT 4309 8811

SPM

Special weather statement, Jan 22, 7:12 PM CST, 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
712 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

WIZ064>066-070>072-230145-
Walworth-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-Jefferson-Kenosha-
712 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE...
NORTHEASTERN WALWORTH...RACINE...WAUKESHA...SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON
AND NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 711 PM CST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Whitewater to near
Union Grove. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

These storms are likely producing large amounts of pea size hail
which will cover the ground. Drives and walks will likely be
slippery after these storms pass!

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Kenosha, Racine, Waukesha, West Allis, Wauwatosa, New
Berlin, Brookfield, Greenfield, Oak Creek, Mount Pleasant, Muskego,
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Greendale, Pewaukee, Elkhorn, St. Francis,
Hartland and Hales Corners.

LAT...LON 4276 8777 4270 8777 4267 8779 4266 8781
      4261 8782 4259 8782 4272 8865 4313 8847
      4301 8789 4296 8785 4288 8785 4285 8783
      4278 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 204DEG 33KT 4276 8866 4262 8801

SPM

Local storm report, Jan 22, 7:40 PM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
740 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             WHITEWATER              42.84N 88.74W
01/22/2018  M0.25 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

SPM

Special weather statement, Jan 22, 7:49 PM CST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
749 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

WIZ059-060-065-066-230230-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-Washington-Ozaukee-
749 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL WILL AFFECT
OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...WAUKESHA AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 747 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Muskego, with
other strong storms located across portions of Ozaukee, Milwaukee,
Waukesha, and Washington Counties. These storms are moving north at
25 mph.

These storms will likely produce pea size hail which will cover the
ground. Drives and walks will quickly become slippery as these
storms pass. Please walk and drive carefully!

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Waukesha, West Allis, Wauwatosa, New Berlin, Brookfield,
Greenfield, Menomonee Falls, Oak Creek, West Bend, Muskego, Mequon,
South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Whitefish Bay, Greendale, Pewaukee, Brown
Deer, Grafton and Cedarburg.

LAT...LON 4338 8787 4326 8791 4318 8788 4312 8790
      4307 8787 4302 8790 4296 8785 4287 8784
      4285 8849 4354 8826 4354 8780 4349 8779
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 182DEG 28KT 4292 8813

SPM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 22, 6:01 PM CST	Dense Fog Advisory	MKX	Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha	3 hr
Jan 22, 6:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Jefferson	36 min
Jan 22, 6:29 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Walworth	46 min
Jan 22, 6:38 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Milwaukee	37 min
Jan 22, 6:57 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Waukesha	33 min
Jan 22, 7:07 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Waukesha	38 min
Jan 22, 7:12 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MKX	Milwaukee, Racine, Waukesha	33 min
Jan 22, 9:46 PM CST	River Flood Warning	MKX	Rock	22 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Wisconsin, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.