Small Craft Advisory 66, NWS Milwaukee, WI

419 
WHUS73 KMKX 240228
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
928 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH RESULTANT HIGH WAVES DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY...

LMZ643>646-241030-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.180824T1500Z-180825T0900Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
928 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
4 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS: South 10 TO 25 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with
  gusts to 25 knots Friday morning, further increasing to 15 to 
  25 knots with gusts to 30 knots Friday afternoon. Winds 
  diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early Saturday morning. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet Friday morning building to 4 to 8 feet by 
  Friday afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early Saturday 
  morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

027 
WHUS73 KMKX 240805
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
305 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TODAY...

LMZ643>646-241615-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.180824T1500Z-180825T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
305 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 AM CDT SATURDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM this morning
to 7 AM CDT Saturday. 

* WINDS: South 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots this morning,
  increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots this  
  afternoon. Winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early Saturday 
  morning. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet this morning building to 4 to 8 feet by this  
  afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early Saturday morning.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

152 
WHUS73 KMKX 241413
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
913 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES TODAY...

LMZ643>646-242215-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.180824T1500Z-180825T1200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
913 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS: South 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots this 
  afternoon. Winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early Saturday 
  morning. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet this morning building to 4 to 8 feet by 
  this afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early Saturday 
  morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

354 
WHUS73 KMKX 242021
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
321 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...

LMZ643-250430-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1700Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
321 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SATURDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until noon CDT
Saturday. 

* WINDS: South 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots tonight.
  Winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early Saturday morning. 

* WAVES: 4 to 8 feet tonight, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet for
  Saturday morning.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ644>646-250430-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1200Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
321 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS: South 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots tonight. 
  Winds diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early Saturday morning. 

* WAVES: 3 to 6 feet tonight, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet early
  Saturday morning.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

969 
WHUS73 KMKX 250211
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
911 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...

LMZ644>646-251015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1200Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
911 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS: South 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots tonight. 

* WAVES: 3 to 6 feet tonight, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet 
  early Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-251015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1700Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
911 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS: South 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots
  tonight.  

* WAVES: 4 to 8 feet tonight, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet for 
  Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

562 
WHUS73 KMKX 250816
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...

LMZ644>646-251200-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1200Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
316 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS: South 10 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 3 to 5 through the early morning, subsiding to 2 to 4
  later this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643-251630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1700Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
316 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WINDS: South 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots early this
  morning.  

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet early this morning, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet
  later this morning.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

382 
WHUS73 KMKX 251215
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
715 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...

LMZ644>646-251315-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1200Z/
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
715 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. 

$$

LMZ643-251700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1700Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
715 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WINDS: South 10 to 20 knots 
  

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet early this morning, subsiding to 3 to 4 feet
  later this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

377 
WHUS73 KMKX 251409
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
909 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...

LMZ643-251700-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-180825T1700Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
909 AM CDT Sat Aug 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WINDS: South 10 to 20 knots

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet early this morning, subsiding to 3 to 4 
  feet later this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
137 PM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.UPDATE...

It looks like showers and isolated thunderstorms will arrive later
tonight than previous forecasts, reaching south central WI during
the early morning hours. These will arrive on the leading edge of
weakening vorticity advection. Once the main area of
showers/storms exit by late Friday morning, expect a period of low
clouds, gusty southerly winds and drizzle/light rain.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will persist through late tonight. A round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will track from west to east
through southern WI Friday morning. Timing of these showers keeps
getting delayed.

Expect a period of IFR to MVFR ceilings behind that first round of
precip. Light fog, drizzle, and showers are possible mid day,
along with gusty southerly winds.

Ceilings will improve later Friday, and then more showers and
storms are expected to roll through the area Friday evening
through the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1046 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018)

UPDATE...

No change to the forecast.

MARINE...

Quiet conditions are expected across the nearshore waters today,
as westerly winds this morning gradually back to the southwest
this afternoon.

Approaching low pressure will bring increasing south to southeast
winds for Friday into Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed from mid to late morning Friday through Friday
night.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 540 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018)

UPDATE...

Clear and quiet across the area this morning. No changes to the
short term forecast. The 06z runs of the NAM/GFS are consistent
with the 00z runs into Friday morning.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

Look for VFR conditions through 12z Friday. Clouds will increase
tonight ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to push into areas west of Madison
after midnight...reaching KMSN by around 08-09z Friday and
KMKE/KUES/KENW by 12-14z Friday. Look for MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYS
to spread from west to east across southern Wisconsin Friday
morning. Winds will be light westerly this morning...backing to
the southwest this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 342 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today...Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure will continue to slide across the region, providing
another quiet and pleasant day with low dewpoints. Winds will be
light westerly, backing to the southwest during the afternoon.

Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

As the ridge slides to the east, a mid level short wave will push
quickly toward the western Great Lakes from the nrn plains. An
increasing southwest low level jet ahead of the approaching trough
will begin to push a much more humid airmass into the area. This
warm and moist air advection will help to generate a line of
showers and thunderstorms that will begin to push into our western
forecast area after midnight, but likely won't make it to the
Milwaukee metro area before 7 am.

This initial activity will be elevated with the surface based
instability still out in wrn/cntrl Iowa by daybreak on Friday.
We'll see dewpoints still in the 50s overnight, so this dry air
will have to be dealt with. We're not expecting any severe weather
with this first round late tonight. That will have to wait until
the Friday afternoon redevelopment. In typical fashion, look for
the activity rolling in tonight to gradually weaken as it pushes
east away from the better airmass to the west.

Friday Through Saturday Night...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Models continue to show the main 500 mb low/shortwave trough
slowly sliding eastward through Wisconsin later Friday into Friday
night. This exits to the east on Saturday. The low level jet will
continue to bring showers and some thunderstorms to the area in
the morning, before it focuses more to the northeast.

There may be a lull in the precipitation, before another possible
round of showers and thunderstorms for later Friday afternoon
into Friday night. The low level jet does focus over and to the
west of the area by 00Z Saturday, lingering into the evening. Weak
surface low pressure should move northeast across Wisconsin
Friday night, bringing a warm front through the area. More showers
and some thunderstorms are expected during this time.

There is enough effective layer shear with modest elevated CAPE
to support some strong storms moving into the area from the west
Friday late afternoon and evening. Extensive cloud cover should
limit surface based instability. Main risk may be locally heavy
rainfall, especially near the low track and where the low level
jet nose focuses. This may be over northern parts of the area and
into central Wisconsin Friday evening. Some uncertainty here, so
stay tuned for later updates to the forecast.

The rest of Saturday into Saturday night may end up dry, as there
is not much in the way of forcing for upward vertical motion. Kept
lower end PoPs at times in this period, until better confidence is
gained with trends. Warmer and more humid conditions will move
into the area by Saturday and linger into next week.

LONG TERM...

Sunday Through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models generally are showing west southwest flow aloft during this
period, with several 500 mb vorticity maxima rotating through the
area. GFS/ECMWF are generally showing the next decent chances for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. This will
depend on where the warm front and low level jet nose sets up,
which may be to the north and west of the area. There will be
ample mean layer CAPE and modest deep layer bulk shear during this
period, with very warm and humid conditions.

Thus, strong to severe storms with locally heavy rainfall may be
possible at times. Best PoPs would be later Sunday night into
Monday morning in the northern counties, closest to the low level
jet nose and warm front. Still too early to pinpoint any details
with this period, but certainly it looks more active. Heat index
values will be in the middle to upper 90s Sunday and Monday as
well, so potential for heat headlines will need to be monitored.

Bigger differences between the GFS and ECMWF exist Monday night
into Wednesday. The GFS stalls the cold front in the area by
Tuesday, lingering Tuesday night/Wednesday, with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF brings the cold front through
the area Tuesday, then keeps any additional convection generally
south of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Kept the blended
model PoPs for this period, until better confidence can be
attained. Warm and humid conditions look to linger during this
time.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

VFR conditions are expected through 12z Friday. High pressure
will keep skies mostly clear today. But, clouds will increase
quickly tonight and gradually lower as moisture surges back into
the region. A band of showers and thunderstorms will begin to push
into areas west of Madison after 06z, possibly reaching Madison
by 09-10z Friday. The showers/storms should stay west of
KMKE/KUES/KENW through 12z, but then move in thereafter. Expect
CIGS to lower to MVFR and IFR levels from west to east after 12z
Friday.

MARINE...

Quiet conditions are expected across the nearshore waters today,
as westerly winds this morning gradually back to the southwest
this afternoon.

Approaching low pressure will bring increasing south to southeast
winds for Friday into Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed from mid to late morning Friday through Friday
night.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Cronce
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
359 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240900-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
359 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

River flooding will continue in portions of western Dane and
Green Counties, with flood waters gradually subsiding over the
next few days.

There is a chance of thunderstorms later tonight, mainly over
south central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances of thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. A
few storms could be strong later Friday afternoon and evening,
with locally heavy rainfall possible.

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Sunday into
Wednesday.

Heat index values may reach the middle to upper 90s Sunday, and
the middle 90s Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LMZ643>646-240900-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
359 AM CDT Thu Aug 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed from middle to late
morning Friday into Friday night, as south to southeast winds
increase with building waves.

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Sunday into
Wednesday.

Wood
www.weather.gov/mkx