Small Craft Advisory 64, NWS Milwaukee, WI

110 
WHUS73 KMKX 051444
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
944 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

LMZ643>646-052245-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0064.180805T1700Z-180806T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
944 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: Southwest 10 to 15 kts this morning, increasing to 15 
  to 25 knots for the afternoon. 

* WAVES: Building to 2 to 4 feet, higher toward Port Washington 
  and Sheboygan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

115 
WHUS73 KMKX 051915
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
215 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...

LMZ643>646-060000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-180806T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
215 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: Southwest at 15 to 25 knots. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, higher toward Port Washington and
  Sheboygan...and toward open waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

920 
WHUS73 KMKX 060018
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
718 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

LMZ643>646-060130-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0064.000000T0000Z-180806T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
718 PM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. 

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is medium.

The convection pushing through sw MN/nw IA could reach our
southwestern areas by mid to late morning, but it's likely to be
weakening, or dying out, as it pushes into drier air and
struggles against the weak diurnal trends. So, if that falls apart
we should stay dry through the morning. That convection is out
along a slow moving cold front with dewpoints pooling into the
lower 70s. The mid levels feature a rather fast zonal to
southwest flow that will help to push upstream convection quickly
east with time. Not surprising, the guidance is all over the
place with respect to location and timing of the arrival of any
convection later today and through tonight. It appears we could
see a few rounds of storms.

After this early morning convection wipes out, we should see
another round or two of convection initiate upstream across IA/MN
later this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to push
deeper into Wisconsin with heavy rain potential across parts of
south central WI tonight. As usual, it will weaken with time as
it tries to get into the southeast, so rainfall will be much more
questionable in the southeast.

SPC has put our northwest forecast area in a slight risk for
severe storms, roughly northwest of a Sheboygan to Spring Green
line. Given the nearly unidirectional shear and fast mid level
flow, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are the main
threat. Expect to see a bowing line of storms push through vs
anything discrete in nature. These bowing lines could be prone to
a quick tornado spin-up, but that's a rather low threat at this
time.

.LONG TERM...

Monday... Forecast confidence medium.

A longwave trough will continue to sit over the Great Lakes
region for the first half of the week. Weak ripples/shortwaves in
the flow tracking over southern WI will support additional rounds
of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Monday remains uncertain with regard to severe storms. SPC
removed the Slight risk from their outlook for Mon/Day 2 and
southern WI is back in a Marginal risk. The NAMNest meso model
shows a believable scenario where the Sunday night convection
takes a long time to clear over southern WI into late Monday
morning, so the better instability would be able to build over
northern IL and convection would re-fire there for the afternoon.

However, the other possibility would be that storms develop over
Iowa Monday morning and track through southern WI during the
afternoon along a shortwave. These would have a better chance of
being strong with a damaging wind threat if they do not initiate
right over us. Either way, showers and thunderstorms are likely
over the area on Monday, but it's not a slam-dunk promise that
everyone will receive beneficial rainfall.

Severity of the storms on Monday is the question. Swift
westerlies aloft will give us a strong deep shear environment, but
instability is not significant due to weak mid level lapse rates.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is high.

The main axis of the longwave trough will finally clear southern
WI Tue night. Instability will remain in place through the day
Tuesday, so there is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.
Wednesday looks very quiet. Temperatures will be around seasonal
normal with highs around 80 to 83.

Thursday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

A weak upper trough and associated surface front will drop through
southern WI on Thu and/or Fri and give us additional chances for
afternoon pop-up thunderstorms. CAPE may reach the 1000 to 1500
j/kg level (modest), but shear will be very weak. Not expecting
severe storms.

Temps will begin warming toward the mid 80s. The weekend weather
looks quite pleasant with only a small chance for a pop-up shower
with maybe a rumble of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with gusty southwest
winds today. We should see a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms push into the area, with the best chance expected
from this evening through the overnight hours tonight. The higher
chances for storms will be across south central Wisconsin,
diminishing quickly by the time the storms reach the southeast TAF
sites of KMKE/KUES/KENW. Timing is difficult given the
uncertainty of just where and when storms will initiate upstream
of Wisconsin this afternoon. We could see brief MVFR or IFR
conditions in any thunderstorms rolling through.

&&

.MARINE...

A small craft advisory is in effect from noon through 7 pm today
due to gusty south to southwest winds. The off shore component to
the winds should keep the highest waves out toward open water up
toward Port Washington and Sheboygan. We should then see
conditions remain below small craft advisory levels through mid
week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday through Saturday...Cronce

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-051100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday morning with the most likely period of storms coming on
Sunday night into Monday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday evening
and night hours with the higher chances further north toward
central Wisconsin. A few storms could produce some large hail or
damaging winds.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday, mainly
from the late morning through the early evening hours. Large hail
and damaging winds would be the main hazards though a tornado or
two can not be ruled out.

There will be some off and on chances for storms through the rest
of the week, particularly on Thursday/Friday, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Monday. The NWS Milwaukee
radar will be down from Tuesday through Saturday, so any
additional ground reports will be appreciated with any storms over
that period.

LMZ643>646-051100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Some gusty offshore winds to around 20 knots are expected on
Sunday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday
morning with severe thunderstorms possible on Monday. Thunderstorm
chances return on Thursday but severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

Cronce

www.weather.gov/mkx