Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Milwaukee, WI

956 
WHUS73 KMKX 251407
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
907 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...Increasing East Winds and Waves Tonight...

LMZ643>646-252215-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.180626T0500Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
907 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS: East 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet tonight and 
  Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

778 
WHUS73 KMKX 251944
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...Increasing Winds and Waves Tonight...

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure in the
central Plains will result in increasing east to northeast winds.
These higher winds and a persistent onshore component will result
in wave heights building to 3 to 5 feet later tonight into 
Tuesday morning. 

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for this period. 

LMZ643>646-260345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.180626T0500Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS: East 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet later tonight and 
  Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

735 
WHUS73 KMKX 260146
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
846 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...Increasing Winds and Waves Tonight...

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of low pressure in the
central Plains will result in increasing east to northeast winds.
These higher winds and a persistent onshore component will result
in wave heights building to 3 to 5 feet later tonight into
Tuesday morning.

A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for this period.

LMZ643>646-261000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.180626T0500Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
846 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS: East 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet increasing to 3 to 5 feet later tonight and 
  Tuesday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

480 
WHUS73 KMKX 260730
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

LMZ643>646-261530-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
230 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: East 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet through early afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

518 
WHUS73 KMKX 261433
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
933 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...East winds will remain brisk through early afternoon...

LMZ643>646-261800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
933 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: East 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet through early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

036 
WHUS73 KMKX 261749
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018


LMZ643>646-261900-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-180626T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The Small Craft Advisory will expire at 1 PM CDT this afternoon.
A few gusts to 20 knots can be expected.

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1130 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...

No significant changes at this time.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday evening. Winds will be
easterly through the period, with a few gusts possible Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1013 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018)

UPDATE...

All showers have dissipated at this point. A quiet night is on tap
with temps falling into the upper 50s to around 60.

MARINE...

1-3 foot waves are expected tonight and tomorrow. Waves will begin
to build Monday night as southeasterly winds increase to around 15
knots, with gusts to around 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will become more numerous early Tuesday morning,
with additional rounds of storms expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Some strong or severe thunderstorms will be possible with
this activity.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 620 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018)

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be
easterly through the period. Speeds should be quite light
overnight tonight, and around 10 knots on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 335 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018)

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - High.

A lone shower is possible in southwest and south-central late
this afternoon, but most areas will be dry. There is a surface
boundary and 500-1000 J of Cape in this region. Clouds and any
showers will diminish as we lose daytime heating. A weak mid level
ridge will move overhead tonight with quiet weather. East winds
will be a little breezy on Monday and clouds will start to move in
from the west ahead of the next system. Latest model runs have
come in a bit slower with the precipitation so kept it dry going
into the evening.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium
to High.

Short term guidance in reasonable agreement on slowing eastward
progression of low level jet into Wisconsin.  Stronger winds
spread across southern WI after 06Z Tuesday through about 15Z.
Strong low level theta-e advection and moisture return with
column pwat increases about 0.5 to 1.0 inch later Monday night into
Tuesday morning.  Elevated CAPE increases to around 500 j/kg with a
about a 2K foot inversion.  Can not rule out some hail producing
storms due to CAPE of 200 j/kg in the growth zone.

Main question for Tuesday afternoon and evening is amount of
instability that will return after morning convection moves off to
the east.  NAM coming into better agreement with ECMWF/GFS solution
which show sfc low over southeast MN/IA border area moving east
across central/southern WI during the evening.  Low level jet
reamplifies ahead of the surface low and focuses on northern
IL/southern WI.  Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS show
clouds clearing in the afternoon with a rapid increase in
instability.  SBCAPE values increase to 2-3K j/kg with CWASP values
climbing to around 8 units.  Clearing will allow warm front to surge
northward into southern WI with pooling dewpoints in the mid 60s to
around 70.  0-6km bulk shear increases to around 40 knots by 00Z
with low level shear around 20kts.  LCL around 500m all pointing to
tornado potential in the late aftn/early evening with STP reach 3
near the IL border at 00Z. Slight Risk for severe definitely
appropriate risk level for southern WI at this point, with possible
upgrade in later periods towards the IL border not out of the
question.

Convection moves off to the east later Tuesday night with small
chances lingering in the east on Wednesday.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Zonal steering flow across the upper midwest early in the period
will transition to a warmer southwest flow by the weekend as
upstream long wave trof amplifies over the western CONUS.  This will
allow very warm and more humid conditions to spread into southern WI
with 925H temperatures climbing to 24-28C for the weekend.  Breezy
low level SSW winds will pull western Gulf moisture northwest into
the western GtLakes as well with column precipitable water in the 1-
2" range. Hence Heat Index values will need to be watched closely
for next weekend, leading into the 4th of July holiday.

There is some discrepancy in the Medium Range guidance for over the
weekend.  Latest GFS deterministic and ensembles show blocking ridge
over the eastern CONUS expanding into the midwest and Eastern Great
Lakes, also having a greater affect on southern WI with warmer, more
capping conditions over the area.  The ECMWF and Canadian flatten
ridge across the western GtLakes as short wave trof moves through
the northern Plains over the weekend.  This solution would result in
less capping and a better chance for periods of convection across
southern WI Sat/Sun.  Hence wl probably include small pops for T
over the weekend, especially Sat night and Sunday. WPC blended
forecast for Days 4-7 went fairly close to a blend of all extended
guidance.

BEACHES...Persistent and increasing southeast winds Monday into
Monday night may cause waves to build to 3 to 5 feet at Lake
Michigan beaches by Tuesday morning. This would result in high swim
risk conditions for a time on Tuesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...Boxell
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
932 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260245-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
932 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely later Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Small hail may accompany these
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop Tuesday
afternoon and evening. There is a Slight Risk for severe storms
during this period. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will
be possible. Heavy rainfall causing flash flooding will also be
possible.

High swim risk conditions may be reached on Tuesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms in parts of southern
Wisconsin Thursday night and Friday, and again Saturday night into
Sunday.

Heat indices may reach the upper 90s to around 100 degrees on
Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-260245-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
932 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday night. Thunderstorms
are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is a Slight Risk
for severe storms across the near shore waters of Lake Michigan
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds and
waterspouts will be possible.

Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

www.weather.gov/mkx