Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Milwaukee, WI

851 
WHUS73 KMKX 060212
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
912 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

...Gusty North Winds Expected Sunday...

LMZ643>646-061015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.180506T1200Z-180507T0200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
912 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY...

* WINDS: North to northeast 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

708 
WHUS73 KMKX 060817
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...Gusty North Winds, High Waves Expected Today...

LMZ643>646-061630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.180506T1200Z-180507T0200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
317 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS: North to northeast 10 to 15 knots, gusts to 25 knots. 

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

466 
WHUS73 KMKX 061430
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
930 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...Gusty North Winds, High Waves Today and this Evening...

LMZ643>646-062230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180507T0200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
930 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: North to northeast 10 to 20 knots, gusts to 25 knots.

* WAVES: 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

965 
WHUS73 KMKX 061956
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ENDING THIS EVENING...

LMZ643-644-062100-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180507T0200Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
256 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has cancelled
the Small Craft Advisory. 

Winds and waves have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and waves of 2 to 3 feet are 
expected the remainder of the afternoon. 

$$

LMZ645-646-070000-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180507T0000Z/
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
256 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until 7 PM CDT this
evening. 

* WINDS: North to northeast 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. 

* WAVES: 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

738 
WHUS73 KMKX 070014
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
714 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018


LMZ645-646-070115-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-180507T0000Z/
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
714 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in effect. 

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1235 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

.UPDATE...Low pressure across southern WI moving southeast. Gusty
southwest winds ahead of low should ease with baggier gradient
and shift more to the north. Onshore component expected to evolve
as well. Upstream low in eastern Dakotas associated with precip
potential later tonight into Sunday morning.

PC

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...A mostly VFR period. First low passing
through southern WI this afternoon will shift winds from southwest
to more of an onshore wind as afternoon goes along as gradient
becomes baggier. Still potential there for shra/tsra later tonight
into Sunday morning as low pressure and stronger cold front moves
through. Some MVFR stratus potential Sunday morning within cold
air advection regime.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1002 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018)

UPDATE...Lowered dew points a smidge and also gave temps a little
nudge as warming up pretty quick here. Expecting onshore component
to cool things down lakeside in the afternoon.

PC

MARINE...Offshore winds will likely turn onshore this afternoon
with weak low pressure passing by. However not expecting small
craft conditions. Still looks like gradient tightens up for Sunday
with a persistent and gusty onshore wind which should lead to some
higher waves. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 628 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018)

UPDATE...

No changes at this hour. With a sharp inversion in place across
the area, a very fast warmup is likely this morning, with many
locations into the 70s by mid morning.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

VFR will continue today and tonight across the area. Winds will
start out from the southwest or west, becoming more westerly and
then northwesterly by afternoon.

Scattered showers are expected late this evening through the
overnight, but rainfall amounts will remain light. Flight
conditions should generally remain VFR despite the rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 321 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today and tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High...

After a cool start in the 40s and low 50s, temperatures today
should quickly warm into the 70s over the entire forecast area,
and low 80s across far southern Wisconsin. A weak frontal boundary
(really more of a wind shift), will work its way south this
afternoon. North to north-northeast winds are expected behind this
boundary, which should result in an enhanced lake breeze along the
lake shore, with temperatures starting to cool into the 60s by
early to mid afternoon.

Another, stronger front will push into the area later tonight,
bringing with it a chance for precipitation. We should stay dry
until at least mid, if not late evening. Light rain will then
overspread the area from northwest to southeast, and then push out
of the region Sunday morning. With relatively weak lift and a dry
low level airmass to be overcome, total rainfall looks to be less
than a tenth of an inch in most spots.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s over southwestern
Wisconsin to the mid 40s along the lakeshore and across central
Wisconsin.

LONG TERM...

Sunday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Held onto a chance for showers into Sunday morning, with models in
good agreement that it will be dry by afternoon. Breezy northeast
winds between the departing front and approaching high pressure
from the northwest will keep it on the cool side near Lake
Michigan, with near normal temps across western portions of the
forecast area.

High pressure will then bring pleasant weather early next week.
There will be plenty of sunshine to go along with temperatures a
few degrees above normal. It will be cooler near Lake Michigan
once again, with highs closer to average values.

Wednesday through Friday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Models are in decent agreement showing high pressure passing
through the area Wednesday into Thursday. Showers are likely with
this system and there could also be a little thunder. Models are
still converging on the finer details of timing and track of the
low, but overall confidence in wet weather mid-week is increasing.

Another wave may bring a few more showers to the area Friday.

Temperatures should be within a couple degrees of normal mid to
late week.

MARINE...

Winds today will be light, initially from the south before
switching to the north this afternoon. Waves today are expected to
remain less than one foot.

A stronger front will pass through the area later tonight, with
stronger northerly winds expected Sunday afternoon and night.
Winds and waves will likely be high enough to require a Small
Craft Advisory by Sunday afternoon.

Generally quiet weather is then expected through Tuesday.
Starting Wednesday, a series of systems will bring chances for
thunderstorms, along with stronger winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
327 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-060830-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
327 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Runoff from the recent heavy rainfall, north of a line from
Dodgeville to just north of Madison to Fond du Lac will continue
to cause river rises, with some into flood. A few rivers have
Flood Warnings.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night.

Area rivers are expected to remain elevated following the recent
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

LMZ643>646-060830-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
327 AM CDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Sunday into Sunday
evening due to brisk north to northeast winds and high waves.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx