Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Milwaukee, WI

385 
WHUS73 KMKX 231423
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
923 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Gusty Winds and High Waves to Develop Tonight...

.A tightening pressure gradient associated with strengthening low
pressure in the central Plains will result in increasing onshore
winds and building waves reaching Small Craft Advisory levels
tonight into Saturday. The gusty winds will diminish Saturday
night but the high waves will linger into Sunday.

LMZ643>646-232230-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.180324T0300Z-180325T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
923 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest winds this morning will turn northeast today 
  and increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight. 

* WAVES: 1 to 3 feet today building to 5 to 8 feet tonight, and 
  persisting into Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
SPM

www.weather.gov/mkx

142 
WHUS73 KMKX 232007
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
307 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Gusty Winds and High Waves to Develop Tonight...

.A tightening pressure gradient associated with strengthening low
pressure in the central Plains will result in increasing onshore
winds and building waves reaching Small Craft Advisory levels
tonight into Saturday. The gusty winds will diminish Saturday
night but the high waves will linger into Sunday.

LMZ643>646-240415-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.180324T0300Z-180325T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
307 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest winds this morning will turn northeast today 
  and increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight. 

* WAVES: 1 to 3 feet today building to 5 to 8 feet tonight, and 
  persisting into Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
SPM

www.weather.gov/mkx

650 
WHUS73 KMKX 240203
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...Gusty Winds and High Waves Tonight...

.A tightening pressure gradient associated with strengthening low
pressure in the central Plains will result in increasing onshore
winds and building waves reaching Small Craft Advisory levels
tonight into Saturday. The gusty winds will diminish Saturday
night but the high waves will linger into Sunday.

LMZ643>646-241015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.180324T0300Z-180325T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
903 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Northeast 15 to 25 knots.
  

* WAVES: 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet tonight, and 
  persisting into Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

422 
WHUS73 KMKX 240817
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Gusty Easterly Winds and High Waves into Sunday...

.Brisk easterly winds and high waves will continue into 
Sunday. Wind gusts up to 30 knots are forecast. 

LMZ643>646-241630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
317 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: East around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Winds
  decreasing to 10 to 15 knots for Sunday afternoon. 
  

* WAVES: 5 to 8 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet for
  Sunday afternoon. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

865 
WHUS73 KMKX 241403
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Gusty Easterly Winds and High Waves into Sunday...

.Brisk easterly winds and high waves will continue into Sunday.
Wind gusts up to 30 knots are forecast.

LMZ643>646-242215-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T1800Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
903 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: East around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Winds 
  decreasing to 10 to 15 knots for Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES: 5 to 8 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet 
  for Sunday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

336 
WHUS73 KMKX 241936
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
236 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Gusty Easterly Winds and High Waves into Sunday...

.Brisk easterly winds and high waves will continue into Sunday.
Wind gusts up to 30 knots are forecast.

LMZ643>646-250345-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
236 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until 4 PM CDT Sunday. 

* WINDS: East around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Winds 
  decreasing to 10 to 15 knots for Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES: 5 to 8 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet 
  for Sunday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

065 
WHUS73 KMKX 250201
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Gusty East Winds and High Waves into Sunday...

.Brisk east winds and high waves will continue into Sunday.

LMZ643>646-251015-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
901 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS: East around 15 to 25 knots. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15
  knots for Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES: 5 to 7 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet for
  Sunday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

544 
WHUS73 KMKX 250743
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
243 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...Brisk East Winds and High Waves into this Afternoon...

.Brisk east winds and high waves will continue into the early afternoon
before decreasing below Small Craft Advisory criteria by late
afternoon. Another Small Craft Advisory is likely by late evening
and lasting into Tuesday morning as brisk southeast winds and high
waves develop once again. 

LMZ643>646-251545-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
243 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: East 15 to 20 knots this morning decreasing to 10 to 15
  knots for this afternoon. 

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet by
  late afternoon.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

350 
WHUS73 KMKX 251348
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
848 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...Brisk East Winds and High Waves into this Afternoon...

.Brisk east winds and high waves will continue into the early
afternoon before decreasing below Small Craft Advisory criteria
by late afternoon. Another Small Craft Advisory is likely by late
evening and lasting into Tuesday morning as brisk southeast winds
and high waves develop once again.

LMZ643>646-252100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
848 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: East 15 to 20 knots this morning decreasing to 10 to 15 
  knots for this afternoon. 

* WAVES: 4 to 7 feet, then gradually subsiding to 2 to 4 feet by 
  late afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

026 
WHUS73 KMKX 251945
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...Persistent East To Southeast Winds Expected...

LMZ643>646-260345-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180325T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0033.180326T0300Z-180327T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening
to 10 AM CDT Tuesday. 

* WINDS: East wind 10 to 20 knots, becoming southeast 15 to 25
  knots this evening. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
320 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Today - Confidence...High.

Another quiet and cool day lies ahead due to upstream short wave
ridging and persistent dry air flow in the low to mid levels.
Expect to see increasing mid-high level clouds later today due to
increasing warm air advection spreading into the IA/MN area ahead
of short wave energy. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore areas a
few degrees cooler today, mostly in the upper 30s. Inland areas
should climb into the low to mid 40s.

Tonight and Saturday - Confidence...Medium to High.

Shortwave ejected from base of long wave trof over the eastern
Pacific will strengthen and sharpen as it moves across the central
Plains tonight and Saturday. The strengthening will be helped
along as it moves across a tightening baroclinic zone that will
be draped across the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley region.
Short term model guidance remains in good agreement on carrying
shortwave and 85H level circulation across southern IA tonight and
across central IL on Saturday. 70H circulation moves from NW IA
to around the Quad Cities late tonight and Saturday as well. Left
entrance region of upper jet favors strong synoptic forcing
remaining just to the southwest of southern WI during this period.
Column precipitable water increases to 0.5 to 0.75 inches in the
tri-state area of WI/IA/IL. Impressive layer q-vector convergence
of 20-30 units in the low levels remains just southwest of MKX CWA
but mid-level convergence of 20 units scrapes southern WI late
tonight into Saturday morning. The problem remains the increasing
low level easterly winds feeding drier air into the low levels of
this enhanced forcing. Typically, computer models do not handle
this influx of drier air all that well. 00Z ECMWF and CMC picking
up on this and has cut back severely on QPF. Meanwhile NAM and
GFS remain more consistent on 0.1 to 0.5" QPF falling in the
southwest corner of CWA, mainly from 06Z-18Z Saturday. Model
Certainty comparison continues to increase confidence in these
amounts in the SW CWA. Hence, will continue to use around 10 to 1
SLR to generate 1 to 5 inch snowfall potential in the southwest
CWA, focused on Lafayette, Green and Iowa counties. Due to
uncertainty with dry air inflow, will hold off on issuing Winter
Weather Advisory for Lafayette county for now, and will let
dayshift get one more look at dry air intrusion potential. Snow
will likely linger for a time in the far southwest on Saturday
before possibly changing over to light rain before ending.

.LONG TERM...
Saturday night through Monday - Confidence...High.

Surface high pressure maintains control over our weather regime.
Mid/high level clouds will be on the increase, particularly later
Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be seasonably cool Saturday
night and Sunday, warming to above average on Monday.

Monday night through Tuesday Night - Confidence...Medium.

00z suite of model output offers no major changes to the
forecast. There are indications of a bit more in the way of most
unstable and mixed layer CAPE to support adding a mention of
slight chance thunder. High precipitable water air supports going
forecast of 0.5" to 1" of rainfall. Above average temperatures are
expected.

Wednesday onward - Confidence...Medium.

Mainly dry conditions are expected. Temperatures will be at/just
above average.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions expected for most of this forecast period. MVFR
ceilings will likely accompany a period of snow in southwest CWA
tonight into Saturday morning but the lower ceilings should remain
southwest to south of KMSN. Gusty east winds will develop tonight
and persist into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light northwest winds will turn onshore this morning as surface
high pressure ridge slides slowly off to the east. A gradually
tightening pressure gradient between this high pressure ridge and
developing low pressure in the central Plains will result in gusty
onshore winds developing tonight and continue through the
weekend. The onshore winds will cause wave heights to build and
should remain elevated into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory has
been posted from later tonight into Sunday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Saturday through Thursday...Gagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240800-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Moderate snowfall is possible in far southwest Wisconsin late
this evening through midday Saturday. 1 to 4 inches of snow is
forecast to fall across Lafayette and western and southern
portions of Iowa and Green counties. Locally higher amounts up to
5 inches are possible across far southwestern portions of
Lafayette county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed but snowfall reports will be
appreciated Saturday morning.

LMZ643>646-240800-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Increasing, brisk east winds will result in small craft advisory
conditions tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Persistent east winds will result in small craft advisory
conditions into Sunday morning.

Additional small craft advisory conditions are expected late
Sunday night through Tuesday morning due mainly to brisk southeast
winds.

www.weather.gov/mkx