Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

800 
WHUS73 KMKX 061504
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
904 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...Brisk Southwest Winds Develop Tonight...

LMZ643>646-062315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
904 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest winds increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts 
  to 30 knots by midnight tonight. Wind decrease late Sunday 
  afternoon. 

* WAVES: Waves in ice free areas build to 3 to 6 feet. Highest 
  waves toward Sheboygan. 

* Freezing spray in ice free areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

334 
WHUS73 KMKX 062109
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...Brisk Southwest Winds Develop Tonight...

LMZ643>646-070515-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
309 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 
  knots by midnight tonight. Wind decrease late Sunday afternoon.
  

* WAVES: In ice free areas will build to 3 to 6 feet. Highest 
  waves toward Sheboygan. 

* Freezing spray in ice free areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Hentz

www.weather.gov/mkx

444 
WHUS73 KMKX 070200
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
800 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...Brisk South Winds Develop Tonight...

LMZ643>646-071000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
800 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest 10 to 20 knots becoming south and increasing to
  15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots tonight, continuing
  through Sunday. Winds will decrease late Sunday. 

* WAVES: Building to 2 to 5 feet in ice free areas. Highest waves
  toward Sheboygan.

* Potential for freezing spray in ice free areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

873 
WHUS73 KMKX 070902
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...Brisk South Winds Today...

LMZ643>646-071715-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
302 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: South 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots, diminishing
  later this afternoon. 
 
* WAVES: Building to 2 to 5 feet in ice free areas. Highest 
  waves toward Sheboygan. 

* Potential for freezing spray in ice free areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

408 
WHUS73 KMKX 071508
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...

LMZ643>646-072315-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
908 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: South to southwest at 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 
  knots, diminishing later this afternoon. 

* WAVES: Building to 2 to 5 feet in ice free areas. Highest 
  waves toward Sheboygan. 

* Potential for freezing spray in ice free areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

381 
WHUS73 KMKX 072105
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
305 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SOUTHWEST WINDS EASING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...

LMZ643>646-080000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
305 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS: Southwest at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
  

* WAVES: 2 to 5 feet in ice free areas. Highest waves toward 
  Sheboygan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

166 
WHUS73 KMKX 072340
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
540 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...Wind Gusts to remain mostly below Small Craft Advisory Levels
Tonight...

LMZ643>646-080045-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
540 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

The Small Craft Advisory will expire at 6 PM CST this evening.
Gusty southwest winds will continue overnight, but most of the
gusts will be less than 22 knots. 

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure will keep the area mostly sunny today, but still
cold through the afternoon. Fortunately, winds will be calm to
very light.

Temperatures will radiate out quickly this evening, but
increasing clouds with warm air advection kicking in will put the
breaks on the temp fall. We'll see lower to mid single digits
above zero in the early evening before they rise to around 10-13F
above by 6 am Sunday.

The warm air advection coupled with moisture return could lead to
some light snow or flurries, mainly north of Milwaukee and
Madison. Chances are pretty small and no accumulation is expected.

Sunday Through Monday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing warm air advection weakening on Sunday, with
the area being clipped by some differential cyclonic vorticity
advection at 500 mb later Sunday into Sunday evening. The upward
vertical motion during the Sunday into Sunday night period is
rather weak. Forecast soundings are saturated in the low levels,
with moisture eroding during the day in the ice crystal growth
zone.

Thus, it looks like mainly light freezing drizzle is possible,
with the best chances in the southern counties Sunday afternoon
into the evening. This may result in slick roads and some impact
to travel, so will continue to message in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook and other products. Highs in the upper 20s look reasonable
for Sunday.

Monday and Monday night look dry at this time, with weak high
pressure moving east into the region. Temperatures are expected to
continue to moderate during this time, with middle 30s possible on
Monday.

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday Through Friday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Warm air advection returns and becomes strong by Tuesday night
across the region. Models are trying to transport more moisture
into the area, and brings some light QPF by 12Z Wednesday into
parts of the area. Kept low PoPs for light snow for later Tuesday
night. Another day of middle 30s with lows only dropping into the
middle to upper 20s with the warm air advection.

The warm air advection continues into Wednesday, with temperatures
rising into the lower 40s over most of the area. Continued to
mention lower end PoPs with moisture gradually streaming into the
area from the south. Could see a transition to all rain by the
afternoon.

GFS is quicker and further southeast with the low track for
Wednesday night into Thursday night than the ECMWF. Both do show
the warm sector lingering into Wednesday night, so rain or a
rain/snow mix looks reasonable.

The differences exist with the cold air advection and path of the
frontogenesis response and snow for Thursday into Thursday night.
The GFS is quicker to bring the colder air into the area, and
brings a period of snow over the area later Thursday into
Thursday night. The ECMWF is more focused on Thursday night for
any snow potential. For now, left blended model PoPs and
temperatures as is. Certainly a system to watch for next week.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure
centered over the area this morning will gradually slip off to
the southeast by evening. Light or calm winds will become
southerly this evening. Mid level clouds will increase tonight
with MVFR CIGS possibly pushing into the area from the south later
Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will increase tonight to Small Craft Advisory
levels, remaining elevated through the day on Sunday. High
resolution satellite imagery yesterday showed widespread ice in
the nearshore waters.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for WIZ047-051-
     052-057>060-063>066-068>072.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Sunday through Friday...Wood

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-062115-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
310 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for tonight, starting at 9
pm. This advisory is for all but the westernmost forecast area
counties where winds will be lighter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

The Wind Chill Advisory is in effect until 11 am Saturday morning.

Freezing drizzle is possible Sunday and may lead to slick driving
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-062115-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
310 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

South to southwest winds will increase over the weekend, and
will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday night into
Sunday. Waves may increase as well in ice free areas.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx