Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Milwaukee, WI

963 
WHUS73 KMKX 281707
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1107 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...Building Waves Expected Tonight...

.Increasing north to northeast winds this afternoon and tonight
will cause wave heights to build to Small Craft Advisory levels.
These higher waves will continue into Monday morning before
subsiding as the winds turn more northwest. Some freezing spray
is possible as well late tonight into Monday morning.

LMZ645-646-290115-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.180129T0600Z-180129T2100Z/
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1107 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 3 PM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: Northwest 10 to 15 knots becoming north to northeast 
  this afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts
  to 25 knots tonight into Monday morning. 

* WAVES: 1 to 3 feet today building to 3 to 6 feet tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

645 
WHUS73 KMKX 282030
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...Building Waves Expected Tonight...

LMZ643-644-291200-
/O.EXB.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.180129T0300Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
230 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
Small Craft Advisory...which is in effect from 9 PM this evening
to 3 PM CST Monday. 

* WINDS: 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots tonight into
  Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The highest waves are
  expected late tonight off of Wind Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-291200-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.180129T0300Z-180129T2100Z/
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
230 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM CST MONDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 9 PM this evening
to 3 PM CST Monday. 

* WINDS: 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots tonight into
  Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The highest waves are
  expected late tonight off of Wind Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

646 
WHUS73 KMKX 290018
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
618 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...Brisk North Winds and Building Waves Tonight...

LMZ643>646-290830-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.180129T0300Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
618 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots 
  tonight into Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The highest waves are 
  expected late tonight off of Wind Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

005 
WHUS73 KMKX 290048
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
648 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...Brisk North Winds and Building Waves Tonight...

LMZ643>646-290900-
/O.EXT.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.180129T0100Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
648 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until 3 PM CST Monday. 

* WINDS: North 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots 
  tonight into Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The highest waves are 
  expected late tonight off of Wind Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

115 
WHUS73 KMKX 290328
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
928 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...Brisk North Winds and Building Waves Tonight...

LMZ643>646-291130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
928 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS: North 15 to 20 knots with a few gusts to 25 knots 
  tonight into Monday morning. 

* WAVES: Building to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The highest waves are 
  expected late tonight off of Wind Point. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

347 
WHUS73 KMKX 290914
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
314 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

...Gusty North Winds and High Waves This Morning...

.Gusty north winds will back to the northwest this morning and
slowly decrease through the day. This will allow higher waves 
this morning to slowly subside. A Small Craft Advisory remains in 
effect until mid-afternoon across the near shore waters. The
higher waves will increase the potential for freezing spray. 

LMZ643>646-291715-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
314 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: North 15 to 25 knots with a few gusts to 30 knots early
  this morning, backing to the northwest and diminishing to 10 to
  20 knots later today.  

* WAVES: 4 to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet this afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

933 
WHUS73 KMKX 291533
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
933 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

...Gusty North Winds and High Waves This Morning...

.Gusty northwest winds will slowly decrease through the day. This
will allow the waves to slowly subside as well. A Small Craft 
Advisory remains in effect until mid-afternoon across the near 
shore waters. The higher waves will increase the potential for 
freezing spray.

LMZ643>646-292100-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
933 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: Northwest 10 to 20 knots.  

* WAVES: 4 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

310 
WHUS73 KMKX 292033
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
233 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

LMZ643>646-292145-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180129T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
233 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

The Small Craft Advisory will expire at 3 PM CST this afternoon.
The waves and northwest winds continue to diminish.  

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium.

Cold front recently exited far southeast Wisconsin with initial push
of cold air settling into the area. Core of cold air remains
upstream over central and northern WI and will settle southward
today. This tightening baroclinic zone will interact with vigorous
mid-level short wave over IA/MN border as it progresses ESE across
southern WI this morning.  Rapidly deepening moisture through 10k
feet and light to moderate lift in the dendritic growth zone will
result in scattered to numerous snow showers advancing into south
central WI after 12Z.  The snow showers will be progressive but will
briefly reduce the visibility and result in a light accumulation
with temps in the 20s.  Not as confident the snow showers will hang
on into east central and southeast WI due to better subsidence in
this area from left entrance region of upper jet so went with higher
chance pops in this area later this morning.

Low level flow becomes onshore this afternoon and continues through
tonight.  At first flow is 10 knots or less this afternoon, but
increases to 10 to 20 knots this evening and continues into the late
night before the low level winds begin backing more to the NNW.
Short term guidance showing some differences in axis of strongest
lift and convergence overnight.  NAM and ECMWF showing more
northerly component to low level flow while GFS more northeast.
Moisture also deeper on the GFS, up to 7K feet while about 2K feet
lower on NAM.  Delta-T increases to around 15 degrees resulting in
lake induced CAPE values exceeding 100 j.  Elevated cloud layer also
in dendritic growth zone. Best chance for lake effect from
Milwaukee south to Kenosha due to NNE wind component, but due to
uncertainties, went with chance pops for now with light snow
accumulations. Will watch this closely for better agreement in
fetch later today, and may need to bump up pops and snow amounts,
which may interfere with the Monday morning commute.

.LONG TERM...

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high:

Could see a few snow showers linger in the far southeast near
Lake Michigan early Monday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will
bring quiet weather for Monday and Tuesday.

Temps are expected to be near normal for Mon and Tue.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium to
high:

Low pressure will approach the area Tuesday night, with a little
warm advection snow possible ahead of the system. Best chance for
a dusting is expected to be in the northern forecast area.

Breezy southwest winds ahead of the trough will bring milder temps
back into the area Wednesday. Models are overall drier with the
trough/front passage on Wednesday. Did leave some low precip
chances in there for now. Would be mainly light snow if anything
does fall given it would be morning precip and the warming near the
surface is pretty shallow.

High pressure will bring dry and cold conditions to end the work
week. Latest models continue to show that temps may struggle to
climb out of the teens for both Thursday and Friday.

The cold temps will linger into the weekend, with models
suggesting a return of snow chances on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (09Z TAFS)...Isolated MVFR sct-bkn have developed
since 06Z in wake of cold front that has recently exited far
southeast.  Lower ceilings to remain isolated early this morning.
However more widespread lower ceilings and visibilities will
accompany scattered snow showers that will be affecting southern WI
this morning into the early afternoon.  The lower ceilings will
likely hang on in parts of the east into tonight but may lift to VFR
in the west. Light snow accumulations are possible today in south
central WI, and in the southeast this afternoon and by the lake
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...Colder air will be settling in over Lake Michigan today
and tonight as winds turn to the north to northeast and increase. A
persistent longer fetch and onshore component will cause wave
heights to build tonight along with gusts up to 25 knots south of
North Point Light.  Hence will post a Small Craft Advisory for the
southern zones beginning tonight and lasting into Monday afternoon
until the low level winds begin to back and wave heights diminish.

Freezing spray is possible tonight as well due to the cold
temperatures and gusty north to northeast winds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Monday through Saturday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-290845-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
245 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light snowfall of generally under an inch could result in slick
driving conditions at times today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-290845-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
245 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from North Point Light
southward starting at midnight tonight. Persistent northerly
winds will build higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until mid-afternoon Monday.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely to return Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx