River Flood Watch 35, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1005 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

.UPDATE...Diminishing area of light showers associated with weak
isentropic lift in wake of cold front over southern Lake Michigan
over southeast IA moving toward southern WI. Expect some of these
showers to hang on and affect parts of the area through mid-
afternoon. Otherwise, cloudy conditions to persist through the
day with a few degree bump in temperature.

&&

.MARINE...Slow moving cold front moving across southern Lake
Michigan late this morning. Front in the vicinty of KMKG extending
southwest into northern Chicago suburbs. Cold front should
continue to move slowly southeast through the day. Post frontal
northwest winds will veer to the north and then northeast as
front becomes stalled just south of Lake Michigan tonight. More
showers are likely tonight into Sunday across the south part of
the lake.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 603 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018)

UPDATE...

Cancelled the Flash Flood Watch, as the last of the heavy rain has
moved out of the area. There will be some light to moderate
showers that gradually dissipate into this morning. Thus, the risk
for flash flooding has ended across the area. Still will see some
response to river stages across the southeast counties, as well as
Lafayette and Green Counties, where more than 1 inch of rain fell
since last night.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

The thundestorms and heavy rainfall potential has moved to the
east of the area this morning, as the cold front moves through the
far southeast counties. Thus, removed thunder wording from TAFs
this morning.

Ceilings have been tricky in the southeast counties, where mixing
out well into VFR category has occurred in spots. Think that
these ceilings will eventually fill in across the area this
morning, with IFR ceilings expected.

The ceilings will rise to VFR levels across most of the area this
afternoon, then lower to MVFR and close to IFR category tonight
into Sunday. Visibility values will improve to VFR after the
showers end, and will remain so this afternoon into tonight. Light
northwest winds today will become northeast tonight and Sunday,
increasing in speed.

Another round of rain and some thunderstorms should move
northward into the area later tonight and linger Sunday into
Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Most of the elevated convection has focused along the low level
jet nose, which has shifted from northern Illinois to far
southeast Wisconsin. This will continue to pivot to the northeast
early this morning, with most of the widespread showers and
thunderstorms moving east of the area by or soon after 12Z
Saturday.

Main concern for flooding issues would be in the far southeast,
where the low level jet nose is pointing into. Given that there is
still a good amount of moderate rain, with some heavy rain in the
far southeast counties, will keep the Flash Flood Watch going for
the south half of the area. Will likely cancel it from west to
east this morning, after the main precipitation areas moves out.

Steady cold air advection on northwest winds today should bring
somewhat cooler and drier air into the area. This should help to
gradually mix out any lingering showers. A few may still hang
around, as a 500 mb vorticity maximum slides into the area this
afternoon. Low clouds should linger today, keeping temperatures
from rising much from current values.

Leading edge of next round of showers and some storms should push
into far southern portions of the area later tonight, as low level
jet nose points into the area. Kept higher end PoPs for those
areas, lower to the north.

LONG TERM...

Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Easterly low level flow will persist Sunday into Sunday night
between high pressure to the north and slowly approaching low
pressure from the southwest. This will keep temps on the cool
side. Moisture will remain abundant during this period, with
precipitable water value around 1.5 inches. With this moisture, it
won't take much lift to kick off showers as a couple waves lift
through the area. Best chance for weekend showers will probably
come Sunday night as a warm front lifts into the area. Instability
will be fairly limited on Sunday, but do think there will be some
thunder Sunday night as the warm front arrives.

Will probably see some showers/storms Monday morning as the front
continues to lift through the forecast area. It may turn mainly
dry then for Mon afternoon into the night with the warm front
north of the area and the low/trough well to the west. The
north and west may hang onto showers/clouds longer, with warmer
temps in the southeast where it could approach 80 given enough
sunshine.

The warm weather will continue Tuesday with the trough generally
stalled to the west and the warm sector remaining over southern
Wisconsin. Could see highs approach 80 once again. The chance for
showers and storms will increase later in the day into the night as
a stronger low begins to lift toward the area.

A better chance for storms will come during the day Wednesday as
the low and cold front move through Wisconsin. Given the current
forecast timing of the front...a few strong to severe storms would
be possible. There is plenty of shear to work with, though
instability isn't particularly impressive.

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is medium:

High pressure is expected to move in for Thursday and Friday
behind the departed cold front. Much cooler temperatures will
arrive with the high for the end of the week. Highs by Friday may
struggle to hit 50. The ECMWF and Canadian keep it dry both Thu
and Fri, while the GFS has a wave moving through on Friday and
brining a chance for rain (or even a few snowflakes early in the
morning!). Went with a small chance for precip for now given the
model differences.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES)...

Look for showers and some thunderstorms to move through the
terminals through around 12Z Saturday. Kenosha will have the best
chances of continued thunderstorms during this time. Ceilings were
varying between LIFR and MVFR or higher during this period, and
would expect this to continue until the rain and thunder moves out
of the area.

Ceilings should then become IFR to LIFR into the rest of the
morning. Visibilities should be in the 1 to 3 mile range in
thunderstorms and moderate rain, gradually improving as the
morning goes on. Heavy rainfall may occur across Kenosha and near
the Illinois border. Winds should be rather light as well into
this morning. May see some light fog at times in precipitation
free areas.

The rest of today may end up fairly dry across the area, as drier
air gradually works in from the northwest behind a cold front.
This may linger into this evening, before more showers try to
push into far southern portions of the area later tonight.

Ceilings should rise to above 1000 feet by midday, and VFR
category by late in the afternoon. May see MVFR ceilings return in
the eastern parts of the area this evening, as winds turn
northeast and increase. Ceilings should drop to around 1000 feet
or so later tonight.

MARINE...

Showers and some thunderstorms will move across mainly southern
portions of Lake Michigan early this morning. Winds will shift to
the northwest today, after a cold front moves through the region.
Winds will become north later today, and northeast tonight into
Sunday. Winds will then shift east Sunday night. Wind speeds and
wave heights should remain below headline thresholds during this
period.

The next shot at gusty winds and building waves should hold off
until the middle and later portions of next week.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

Update...MBK
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-071415-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday
night into Monday and again mid-week. As a result, river and
lowland flooding may linger into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but rainfall reports will
be appreciated.

LMZ643>646-071415-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Sunday night into the
middle of next week.

Southerly winds ahead of strong low pressure Wednesday may
approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Westerly winds behind the
low and cold front Thursday will likely reach advisory criteria.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-071415-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
915 AM CDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

There remains a chance for thunderstorms over the far south today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Sunday night into
the middle of next week, particularly over the south half of the
lake.

Westerly winds behind a departing strong cold front may approach
gale force on Thursday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
915 AM CDT SAT OCT 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE    42.60N 87.93W
10/06/2018  M1.84 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION ENW, KENOSHA-AIRPORT.

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW DELAVAN           42.63N 88.66W
10/06/2018  M1.99 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION DLNW3, DELEVAN.

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ELKHORN                 42.67N 88.53W
10/06/2018  M2.26 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-WW-12, ELKHORN.

0653 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W NORTH BAY           42.76N 87.81W
10/06/2018  M2.31 INCH       RACINE             WI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION RAC, RACINE-BATTEN AIRPORT.

0859 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WIND POINT         42.80N 87.79W
10/06/2018  M2.39 INCH       RACINE             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV105, 1 NW WIND POINT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW KENOSHA            42.56N 87.86W
10/06/2018  M2.50 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-KN-6, 2 WSW KENOSHA.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE FRANKSVILLE       42.74N 87.86W
10/06/2018  M2.53 INCH       RACINE             WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-RC-4, 3 NE STURTEVANT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW RACINE            42.75N 87.79W
10/06/2018  M2.64 INCH       RACINE             WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-RC-12, 1 NNW RACINE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW ELMWOOD PARK       42.71N 87.85W
10/06/2018  M2.67 INCH       RACINE             WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-RC-3, 1 NW ELMWOOD PARK.

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE BELOIT            42.52N 89.01W
10/06/2018  M2.77 INCH       ROCK               WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-RK-15, BELOIT.

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW BELOIT            42.50N 89.03W
10/06/2018  M2.93 INCH       ROCK               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BLTW3, BELOIT.

&&