Alert archive / Wisconsin / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 124, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Nov 6, 2018, 9:51 AM CST for Green County, Wisconsin. It took effect at Nov 7, 2018, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 6, 2018, 9:51 AM CST (15:51 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 7, 2018, 12:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Nov 7, 2018, 9:30 PM CST
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Green County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Pecatonica River at Martintown (MTNW3). The gauge peaked at 12.14 ft at Nov 8, 2018, 7:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 9.5 ft
- Minor stage
- 13.5 ft
- Moderate stage
- 18 ft
- Major stage
- 21 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05434500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
802
WGUS43 KMKX 061551
FLWMKX
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
951 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
flood warning for the following rivers in Wisconsin...
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC045-070350-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0124.181107T1800Z-181110T0000Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.181107T1800Z.181108T1200Z.181109T1800Z.NO/
951 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/sullivan has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 7:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 14.1 feet by Thursday morning. The river
will fall below flood stage by Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.50 07 AM 11/06 12.3 13.9 14.0 13.3
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.50 07 AM 11/06 0.62 14.10 06 AM 11/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Martintown: 6 am-noon Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$5 follow-up statements
842
WGUS83 KMKX 062155
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
355 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Rock River At Afton affecting Rock County
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC105-070954-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0123.181108T1800Z-181112T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.181108T1800Z.181108T1800Z.181111T1800Z.NO/
355 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Rock River At Afton.
* At 2:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to
lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton
and Janesville areas.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Afton 9.0 8.0 8.85 02 PM 11/06 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Afton 9.21 10 PM 10/30 0.15 9.00 12 PM 11/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Afton: 6 am-noon Tue Nov 06 0.01
Afton: noon-6 pm Tue Nov 06 0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn Tue Nov 06 0.00
Afton: midn-6 am Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
4257 8909 4261 8910
$$
WIC045-070954-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0124.181107T1800Z-181110T0000Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.181107T1800Z.181108T1200Z.181109T1800Z.NO/
355 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 2:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 14.1 feet by Thursday morning. The river
will fall below flood stage by Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Tue Wed Thu Fri
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.62 02 PM 11/06 12.3 13.9 14.0 13.3
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.64 01 PM 11/06 0.62 14.10 06 AM 11/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Martintown: 6 am-noon Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$858
WGUS83 KMKX 070314
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Rock River At Afton affecting Rock County
&&
WIC105-071513-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0123.181108T1800Z-181112T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.181108T1800Z.181108T1800Z.181111T1800Z.NO/
914 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Rock River At Afton.
* At 7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
Thursday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to
lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton
and Janesville areas.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Afton 9.0 8.0 8.83 07 PM 11/06 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Afton 9.21 10 PM 10/30 0.10 9.00 12 PM 11/08
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Afton: 6 pm-midn Tue Nov 06 0.00
Afton: midn-6 am Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
4257 8909 4261 8910
$$
WIC045-071513-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0124.181108T1200Z-181109T0000Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.181108T1200Z.181108T1200Z.181108T1800Z.NO/
914 PM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.72 08 PM 11/06 13.1 13.4 12.9 11.7
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.73 08 PM 11/06 0.57 13.50 06 AM 11/08
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Tue Nov 06 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$094
WGUS83 KMKX 071035
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
435 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Rock River At Afton affecting Rock County
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC105-072234-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0123.181108T1800Z-181112T0000Z/
/AFTW3.1.ER.181108T1800Z.181108T1800Z.181111T1800Z.NO/
435 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Rock River At Afton.
* At 3:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Minor erosional flood damge occurs to
lowland and agricultural land adjacent to the river in the Afton
and Janesville areas.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Afton 9.0 8.0 8.75 03 AM 11/07 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.0
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Afton 9.20 05 PM 10/31 -0.09 9.00 12 PM 11/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Afton: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Afton: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Afton: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Afton: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
Afton: 6 pm-midn Thu Nov 08 0.01
Afton: midn-6 am Fri Nov 09 0.06
&&
LAT...LON 4274 8910 4274 8903 4261 8900 4257 8898
4257 8909 4261 8910
$$
WIC045-072234-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0124.181108T1200Z-181109T0000Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.181108T1200Z.181108T1200Z.181108T1800Z.NO/
435 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 3:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.81 03 AM 11/07 13.1 13.4 12.9 11.7
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.81 03 AM 11/07 0.44 13.50 06 AM 11/08
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Fri Nov 09 0.04
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$357
WGUS83 KMKX 071635
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1035 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC045-080435-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0124.181109T1200Z-181109T1800Z/
/MTNW3.1.ER.181109T1200Z.181109T1200Z.181109T1200Z.NO/
1035 AM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 8:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
morning.
* Impact...At 13.5 feet...Floodwaters affect Martintown Road and West
River Road in the Martintown area. Upstream in Browntown,
floodwaters affect highway MM and West Indies Road.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Wed Thu Fri Sat
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.86 08 AM 11/07 12.2 13.3 13.4 12.1
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.86 08 AM 11/07 0.33 13.50 06 AM 11/09
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from October through March and for 24
hours into the future from April through September.
Martintown: 6 am-noon Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Fri Nov 09 0.04
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$899
WGUS83 KMKX 080330
FLSMKX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
930 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Wisconsin...
Pecatonica River At Martintown affecting Green County
&&
WIC045-080400-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0124.000000T0000Z-181109T1800Z/
/MTNW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
930 PM CST Wed Nov 7 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Pecatonica River At Martintown.
* At 8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 12.3 feet
tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Tillable farmland is flooded.
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation, soil moisture conditions, and predicted
precipitation for the basin. Precipitation is for the next 24 hours
in the future from April through September and for 48 hours in the
future from October through March.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 6 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
Martintown 13.5 9.5 11.99 08 PM 11/07 12.3 12.3 11.6 10.3
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
Martintown 11.99 08 PM 11/07 0.27 12.30 06 PM 11/08
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from October through March and for 24 hours into the future from
April through September.
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Wed Nov 07 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 am-noon Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: 6 pm-midn Thu Nov 08 0.00
Martintown: midn-6 am Fri Nov 09 0.05
Martintown: 6 am-noon Fri Nov 09 0.00
Martintown: noon-6 pm Fri Nov 09 0.00
&&
LAT...LON 4272 8992 4272 8984 4263 8980 4251 8970
4251 8988 4260 8993
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 6, 9:14 AM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 6, 9:14 AM CST, 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018
.UPDATE...Steadiest rains across central into northeast cwa.
Seeing some drying in the southwest. Winds to crank up as trough
axis loosens grip and pressure gradient tightens. HRRR shows
continued decrease in areal coverage of rain as day wears on.
PC
&&
.MARINE...No change to headlines with gradient tightening up on
underside of strengthening low pressure vicinity northeast lower
Michigan. West/southwest winds ramping up. Highest waves will be
across open waters. Small craft ramps up to Gale warning with
another small craft likely needed tonight after gale warning
expires.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 526 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018)
UPDATE...
The forecast looks on track this morning. Main area of rain will
continue to slowly shift northward this morning into early this
afternoon, with lingering showers rotating through the area. Most
of the precipitation should be north of the area by later this
afternoon. Gusty west winds are expected to develop from south to
north this morning, as the surface low moves east and the pressure
gradient tightens.
AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
Main area of rain will continue to slowly shift northward this
morning into early this afternoon, with lingering showers rotating
through the area. Most of the precipitation should be north of
the area by later this afternoon. Ceilings around 500 feet or so
with the rain should rise to around 1500 feet this afternoon.
Visibility values in the 2 to 4 mile range in the rain should
improve to VFR category this afternoon.
Variable winds early this morning with the passing low pressure
system will quickly become west and gusty by middle to late
morning. Gusts of 25 to 32 knots are expected later this morning
into this evening. The gusty winds will linger later tonight into
Wednesday. Ceilings will rise to VFR category later this
afternoon into tonight.
PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 352 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018)
SHORT TERM...
Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.
Mesoscale models are in good agreement with area of rain,
associated with negatively tilted 500 mb shortwave trough,
shifting northeastward this morning. There will still be areas of
showers rotating through parts of the area in the wake of the
main band this morning, gradually tapering off this afternoon.
Models show another 500 mb shortwave trough sliding east across
the area later tonight. Enough cold air advection occurs by this
time to bring small chances for light snow showers in northern
parts of the area. Moisture will be meager, so not expecting any
snow accumulations.
Other issue will be the gusty west winds later this morning into
tonight across the area. The pressure gradient will become tight
during this time, with good low level mixing. Cold air advection
later today into tonight will help with downward momentum mixing.
Gusts in the 25 to 32 knot range are expected this afternoon into
this evening.
Highs today will remain nearly steady in the middle to upper 40s.
Lows tonight should drop into the lower to middle 30s.
Wednesday through Friday...Forecast confidence medium to high.
A shortwave trough will pass on Wed maintaining broken cloud cover
and cold advection on brisk wly winds. The soundings are
attempting to briefly saturate toward central WI and may have to
introduce low PoPs in later forecasts. The winds will mostly
diminish Wed nt as a sfc ridge approaches from the west. Some
clearing is expected with lows in the 20s. The sfc ridge will then
settle over the region on Thu with partly to mostly sunny skies
and cool temps.
A deep upper trough will then dig into the nrn Great Plains and
Upper MS River Valley for Thu nt-Fri. 850-700 mb frontogenesis
ahead of the upper trough will likely generate a period of light
snow over srn WI. Additional cold advection will reinforce an
already cold airmass.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Monday...Forecast confidence medium.
A sfc ridge will shift east across srn WI on Sat followed by swly
winds and warm advection Sat nt-Sun. The low pressure area and
shortwave trough will track across nrn WI on Sun where the best
chances of snow are forecast. Another deep polar trough will then
dig into WI for Mon-Tue. Well below normal temps will continue
with at least small chances for snow showers.
AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Rain will gradually shift northeast this
morning, with more showers rotating through across portions of
the area. These should diminish this afternoon. Ceilings around
500 feet or so with the rain should rise to around 1500 feet this
afternoon. Visibility values in the 2 to 4 mile range in the rain
should improve to VFR category this afternoon.
Variable winds early this morning with the passing low pressure
system will quickly become west and gusty by middle to late
morning. Gusts of 25 to 32 knots are expected today into this
evening. The gusty winds will linger later tonight into Wednesday.
Ceilings will rise to VFR category later this afternoon into
tonight.
MARINE...
Strong southwest to west winds are expected today into this
evening across the southern half of Lake Michigan, as a tight
pressure gradient develops. This will result in a period of gale
force winds in this area. Gusty west to northwest winds tonight
into Wednesday evening are expected, until winds weaken later
Wednesday night into Thursday.
Nearshore Waters...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until
15Z this morning, for onshore winds bringing 3 to 5 foot waves.
Frequent gales to 35 knots are then expected from 15Z Tuesday
until 00Z Wednesday. Thus, a Gale Warning remains in effect for
this period.
There will be a period of gusts to around 30 knots tonight into
Wednesday evening, so another Small Craft Advisory will eventually
be needed for this period. The offshore winds will keep high
waves over the open waters of Lake Michigan.
Open Waters...A Gale Warning remains in effect from 12Z this
morning until 06Z Wednesday for the south half of Lake Michigan,
for frequent southwest to west gusts of 35 to 40 knots. High waves
are expected to develop on the eastern parts of the lake.
Gusty west winds to 30 knots are then expected for tonight into
Wednesday evening for the entire lake, with high waves on the
eastern parts of the lake.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LMZ669-671-673-675.
Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.
&&
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...GehringHazardous weather outlook, Nov 6, 3:25 AM CST, 6 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 325 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070930- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 325 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ643>646-070930- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 325 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 9 AM for lingering high waves. A Gale Warning will then go into effect until 6 PM for westerly gale force wind gusts. Brisk westerly winds will then continue tonight and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Brisk west to northwest winds will prevail on Wednesday and linger into Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-070930- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 325 AM CST Tue Nov 6 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Gale Warning is in effect today and this evening over the south half of the lake. Westerly gales will develop through the morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Brisk west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots will prevail on Wednesday into Wednesday evening for the entire lake. www.weather.gov/mkx
The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 9:50 AM CST | River Flood Watch | MKX | Waushara | 48 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.