Gale Warning 12, NWS Milwaukee, WI

740 
WHUS73 KMKX 160156
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
856 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...Gusty Winds Expected Through Wednesday for Nearshore Waters...
...Gales Expected across Open Waters Late Tonight and Tuesday...

.Gusty west to southwesterly winds, including gale force gusts 
over the open waters, will occur late tonight and Tuesday. The 
brisk winds will become northwesterly and remain gusty by early 
Tuesday evening with the passage of a cold front. The highest 
waves will remain over the open waters of Lake Michigan.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-161000-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0012.181016T0800Z-181016T2000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
856 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS: West to southwest gales to 35 kt late tonight, then 
  veering west to 30 kt late Tuesday afternoon. 

* WAVES: 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 8 to 11 ft 
  occasionally to 14 ft Tuesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-161000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
856 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS: West to northwest 15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday, 
  then northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, highest toward the open waters of Lake 
  Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

141 
WHUS73 KMKX 160755
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...Gusty Winds Expected Through Wednesday for Nearshore Waters...
...Gales Expected across Open Waters Today...

.Gusty west to southwest winds, including gale force gusts over 
the open waters, will occur today. The brisk winds will become 
northwest and remain gusty by early this evening with the passage
of a cold front. The highest waves will remain over the open 
waters of Lake Michigan.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-161600-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0012.181016T0800Z-181016T2000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
255 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: Southwest gales to 35 kt today, then veering west to 30 
  kt late this afternoon and northwest tonight.

* WAVES: 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 8 to 11 ft
  occasionally to 14 ft. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-161600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
255 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest 15 to 25 knots gusts to 30 knots today then
  west this evening then northwest tonight into Wednesday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, highest toward the open waters of Lake 
  Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

237 
WHUS73 KMKX 161409
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
909 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS...
...GALES ACROSS OPEN WATERS TODAY...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-162000-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181016T2000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
909 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS: Southwest gales to 35 kt today, then veering west to 30 
  kt late this afternoon and northwest tonight. 

* WAVES: Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-162215-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
909 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest 15 to 25 knots gusts to 30 knots today then 
  west this evening then northwest tonight into Wednesday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, highest toward the open waters of Lake 
  Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

876 
WHUS73 KMKX 162001
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS... 

...GALES CROSS OPEN WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-170000-
/O.EXT.KMKX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181017T0000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The Gale Warning is now in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening. 

* WINDS: West to southwest gales to 35 kt, veering northwest to 30
  kt this evening into tonight. 

* WAVES: Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-170415-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS: Southwest 15 to 25 knots gusts to 30 knots becoming west
  this evening then northwest tonight into Wednesday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, highest toward the open waters of Lake 
  Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
DDV

www.weather.gov/mkx

122 
WHUS73 KMKX 170000
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS...

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-170100-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181017T0000Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The Gale Warning will expire at 7 PM CDT this evening. However, a
few gale force wind gusts may still occur through the evening with
the passage of a cold front. 

$$

LMZ643>646-170800-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-181017T2100Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS: West 10 to 20 knots early this evening, then veering
  northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots tonight into 
  Wednesday. 

* WAVES: 2 to 4 feet, highest toward the open waters of Lake 
  Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$


www.weather.gov/mkx

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...

No change to the forecast for today.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Diurnal cumulus clouds with bases around 3500 ft will diminish as
the sun sets this afternoon. Winds will continue to be gusty out
of the west- northwest through late afternoon, diminish overnight,
and then become gusty out of the southwest Tue morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 1011 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018)

UPDATE...

Low clouds are on their way out this morning. There is an area of
clouds over the central and southwest part of the state that will
swing across southern WI this afternoon due to an upper trough and
cold air advection moving through the area. Winds will continue to
be gusty out of the west-northwest through late afternoon.

MARINE...

Gusty west-northwest winds will persist through late afternoon. A
small craft advisory remains in effect. There will be a brief lull
in the winds tonight, and then gusty southwest winds are expected
Tuesday morning. Winds will shift to the northwest Tuesday night
and remain gusty through Wednesday afternoon.

A period of southwest gale force gusts are likely over the open
waters late tonight into Tuesday afternoon. If models continue to
show the same wind forecast trend, we can switch it over to a Gale
Warning with the afternoon GLF issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 524 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018)

UPDATE...Radar trends show the mixy precip winding down quite
rapidly. Still quite a bit of cloud cover upstream back into MN.
Mid level circulation shifting through during the morning hours so
expecting at least some broken cloud coverage for a time. Probably
more scattered this afternoon as wave shifts east. Gusty cold air
advection to prevail.

PC

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...With precip shifting out early on here
ceilings are rising. Some pockets of MVFR linger but more in the
way of VFR cloud cover upstream into MN. This will rotate through
this morning as mid level energy pivots east. More in the way of
scattered cloud cover expected this afternoon. A ridge of high
pressure briefly affects area this evening but then this shifts
east as low pressure passing to our north sets up a southwest
wind regime overnight.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Today - Confidence...Medium
Strongly divergent upper jet signature noted which is favoring
srn WI for lingering lift associated with some lower level
frontogenetical forcing. One last surge of some higher dbz's
lifting northeast into se WI from nrn IL. Otherwise much of the
remainder of this light precipitation will exit by about 12z or
so as dryer works in with increasing cold air advection. The
transition from rain to snow is steadily making progress deeper
into the cwa as the lower level thermal profile becomes more
favorable. Upstream cloud cover suggests holding onto clouds a bit
longer into the morning. 925/850 RH does show a brief period of
dry slotting towards 12z with more broken cloud cover coming in
with strong vort max passing by to our north for the balance of
the morning. Should trend to a more scattered cloud cover this
afternoon as the vort pulls away and we see bit more in the way of
subsidence work in.

Tonight - Confidence...High
Quiet weather expected. Low level ridging will shift east with
increasing low level waa signature displacing the lower level
thermal trough. Low pressure will be passing to our north with a
steady southwest breeze expected. Skies should be mainly clear
though the steady winds with the tighter pressure gradient and waa
should keep temps from bottoming out.

Tuesday through Thursday night...Forecast confidence is high.

A cold front will push through the area on Tuesday, but is should
push through dry. It will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure settles over the
western Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon, then pushes off to the
southeast by Thursday afternoon. This period should remain dry,
but cool.

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Southwest flow ahead of an approaching trof/cold front will push
temps into the mid 50s for Friday. The front is expected to come
through during the late afternoon and evening on Friday, with
cooler weather pushing in for Saturday. In addition, a couple of
decent mid level short waves will push southeast across the area
within a fast northwest flow. The airmass will remain on the dry
side, but we could squeeze out a few showers as this energy moves
across the area. Thus, small rain chances are in the forecast for
the end of the week.

Sunday and Monday...Forecast confidence is high.

It looks like high pressure builds back into the area for early
next week. Continued dry and cool.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Precipitation that includes some rain and
snow will exit the area around 12z. Little if any snow
accumulation is expected due to the warm ground. Northwest winds
will increase with the cold air advection regime in place. IFR and
MVFR cigs will transition to VFR throughout the morning. Brief
period of ridging sets up tonight though a low pressure system
will pass north of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday. This will
increase our southwest winds ahead of the low and then turn winds
more to the northwest on Tuesday as the low shifts further east
and drags a cold front through the area.

MARINE...Prolonged small craft advisory for nearshore waters
looks good. Cold advection today with northwest winds will keep
things on the gusty side lake-wide. Still seeing some potential
for some gale gusts later tonight into Tuesday as a new low
pressure system passes to our north. Have issued a Gale Watch to
account for an uptick in these winds later tonight into Tuesday.
Southwest winds tonight will shift more westerly on Tuesday as the
low shifts eastward from north of lake Superior.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
     LMZ669-671-673-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643>646.

&&

Update...Cronce
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Davis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-160830-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond Du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Many area rivers will remain above flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Many area rivers will remain above flood stage through the coming
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-160830-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for gusty northwest winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Wind gusts will reach Small Craft Advisory levels at times Monday
through Wednesday. A few gales gusts are possible on Tuesday.
Highest waves will remain toward the open waters of Lake Michigan.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-160830-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A gale watch is in effect starting at 3 am tonight for strong west
to southwest winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A gale watch is in effect until 3 pm Tuesday. Gale force southwest
winds are possible. Winds will weaken a bit and veer to the
northwest by Tuesday night, but remain elevated through Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx