Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
633 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will quickly move across the area today.
A cold front will then move through later this evening followed
by high pressure Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will
affect the area Thursday into Friday. High pressure will ridge
into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...Last of severe threat impacting the
Ocracoke/Hatteras area early this morning and should be offshore
shortly, which will end the Tornado Watch for the Outer Banks
shortly. Some wind damage and hail was reported in the Atlantic
Beach area earlier this morning from a possible tornado. One to
three inches of rain have been common per latest radar estimates
for our CWA, especially near the coast.

For the balance of the day, expect mostly light to moderate
rain. Temperatures will be steady this morning before slowly
falling this afternoon as dewpoints also start to fall fairly
quickly as the cold front slowly works its way offshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the
northwest later tonight as dewpoints drop into the 40s. Lower
clouds are likely to hang around through most of the night. Lows
tonight will be in the lower 40s inland to the lower 50s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Tues...Active weather will continue into the
second half of the week. Then, drier and cooler air will move in
Friday and remain into the weekend.

Wednesday...High pressure will build into the area behind the
front, resulting in a mainly dry and cool day Wednesday. Gusty
winds (especially for coastal areas) will ensue Wednesday
afternoon/evening as low pressure developing across the Deep
South works with high pressure across the Northeast to tighten
the gradient locally.

Thursday...The aforementioned low will travel up the east coast
Thursday, brining another soggy and windy day. Models have come
into better agreement on an inland track up the I-95 corridor,
which would put part of Eastern NC in the warm sector once
again. Forecast guidance is showing another 1-3 inches of rain
is possible which could lead to some minor flooding problems
given the amount of recent rainfall. Have also raised PoPs to
categorical for most of Thursday. Severe weather is also
possible as scattered thunderstorms could track along the coast
as the low pressure system deepens as it moves up the east
coast. Temperatures will be very warm once the area is in the
warm sector will reach the mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to
around 70 near the coast.

Friday through Monday...As low pressure departs the area, it
will drag a cold front off the coast Friday morning, with cooler
high pressure building in behind it. High pressure will
continue to ridge into the area through this weekend and into
Monday, however cooler conditions are expected. High temps
Friday will reach the low to upper 60s, with mostly 50s likely
for the weekend. Lows will dip into the 30s inland, but look to
remain above freezing, while remaining in the low to mid 40s
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Wednesday/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...Difficult TAF forecast with variable
ceilings this morning, before another period of IFR ceilings is
likely later this evening into tonight, before drier air arrives
improving ceilings toward Wednesday morning. Some reduced vsbys
in rain this morning, but these should improve with lower
dewpoints by later in the day and through tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 120 AM Tues...VFR conditions will return Wednesday, but
be short-lived as IFR conditions are likely as low pressure
impacts the area late Wednesday through Thursday night. VFR
conditions return Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...No changes to the current marine forecast
as gusty S/SW winds continue. Diamond Buoy is gusting to 43
knots with Hatteras Coast Guard station gusting to 35 knots as
the winds are picking up now. Seas have risen to 10 ft off the
northern Outer Banks. Most of the high-resolution models show
winds diminishing during the afternoon, but seas remain
elevated through tonight. Winds will again increase after
midnight with surge behind cold front.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 120 AM Tues...Winds and seas will increase Wednesday
ahead of an approaching low and remain elevated, with very
dangerous boat conditions expected as low pressure passes near
the waters through at least Thursday night. Gale Force winds are
expected across the coastal waters and possibly the sounds and
will be SE/E 25-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts, and seas will build
to 6-12 ft in response. Conditions should begin to improve
Friday, but seas look to remain elevated through Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SGK/CB
AVIATION...CTC/SGK
MARINE...CTC/SGK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
633 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E MOREHEAD CITY       34.72N 76.70W
11/13/2018  M58 MPH          AMZ158             NC   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION MOREHEAD CITY YACHT
            BASIN.

&&

HEDEN

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