Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
415 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure off the southern New England coast will gradually move
east over the weekend, while strong high pressure slowly builds in from the
northwest and north. This will result in a prolonged period of strong and
gusty winds into Sunday. The next frontal system will affect the area
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Tight pressure gradient between deep
low pressure offshore of southern New England and strong high
pressure building in from Great Lakes will persist over area
today. However guidance in good agreement that winds will be
slightly weaker today as they become more northerly this
afternoon. Still expect breezy conditions inland and very windy
at coast but not quite as gusty as on Friday, thus can drop Wind
Advisory inland of coast and lower High Wind Warning to Wind
Advisory for coastal sections. Sunny skies expected except for
some SCU/AC skirting Outer Banks with max temps a few degrees
below normal...upper 40s northern Outer Banks to mid-upper 50s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Little change in surface and upper
level pattern will result in continued windy conditions along
the coast and breezy inland. Some SCU/AC expected along the
coast again but any precip remaining offshore. Min temps from
low-mid 30s inland to around 40 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 am Sat...The low over the western Atlantic will move
southeast Sunday into early next week, while a slowly weakening
north-south ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
The ridge axis will be across the area Monday and moves off the
coast Tuesday. As a result, the strong, gusty winds will
subside early next week as the pressure gradient weakens. The
next major upper trough and associated surface cold front brings
a threat of showers to the area Tue and Tue night with the
front moving off the coast Wed morning with showers ending
quickly from west to east. By late next week high pressure over
the central plains will move to the central gulf coast. Highs
will be mainly in the 50s, except lower/mid 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday with the southwest flow along and ahead of the cold
front. Lows will be in the 30s, except Tuesday night, with lows
in the mid/upper 40s in the mild southwest flow ahead of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...VFR conditions and mostly clear skies
are expected through the TAF period. NW winds will continue to
gust up to 30 KT through today, becoming N 10 KT or less
tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wed/...
As of 3 am Sat...VFR/dry weather through Monday night. Low-
level wind shear and crosswinds will remain an issue Sunday as
deep/strong low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast moves slowly
away from the eastern seaboard while continuing to produce
strong northerly flow across the area. Light winds forecast Mon
as a surface ridge passes through. Sub-VFR conditions possible
in scattered showers Tuesday into early Wednesday as the next
cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...Tight pressure gradient between deep low
pressure to NE and strong high pressure to NW will persist over
area into Sunday. Latest guidance and obs indicate threat of 50
KT gusts has diminished and adjusted Storm Warnings to Gale
Warnings all waters except for SCA inland rivers. NW winds today
will become northerly tonight with frequent gusts to 45 KT
likely for coastal waters and eastern portions of sounds.

Seas up to 15 feet outer northern and central waters early this
morning expected to build to around 20 ft late today and tonight
as winds become more northerly.

Long Term /Sun through Wed/...
As of 3 am Sat...The low over the western Atlantic will move
off to the southeast Sunday into Monday, while slowly weakening
north-south oriented surface ridge approaches from the west.
The high passes through Monday and off the coast Tuesday, then
the next cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, moving off
the coast early Wednesday. Strong winds will diminish early
next week as the pressure gradient becomes very loose. However,
a prolonged period of dangerous seas is forecast through the
entire long term.

Wind speeds will decrease rather quickly Monday into Tuesday as
the pressure gradient becomes very loose. Winds will veer from
northerly Monday to southwest Tuesday as the high moves through
and off the coast. Winds will veer further to west on Wednesday
after the front moves off the coast. Dangerous sea conditions
will continue through Wednesday as high waves from this weekend
will take much longer to subside.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM Sat...A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect
for Outer Banks Dare County. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in
effect for Outer Banks Hyde and Carteret counties. Soundside
flooding remains a concern along Outer Banks Dare County today
then shift towards Ocracoke and downeast Carteret County as the
flow becomes more northerly tonight into Sun. Diminishing winds
late Sun and Mon will alleviate the soundside flood threat.
Oceanside flooding issues are expected north of Cape Hatteras
due to large waves and higher than normal astronomical tides and
is expected to persist into Mon. Models show 2 to 4 feet above
normal on the soundside of Hatteras Island and along the
oceanside of Dare County north of Cape Hatteras and up to 2 feet
above normal along soundside areas of Outer Banks Hyde and
Carteret counties.

A Low Water Advisory is in effect through this evening for the
Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse and Bay Rivers, as northwest winds will
continue to produce water levels up to 3 feet below normal.
Pamlico River gauge at Washington dropped to 5 feet below normal
Friday evening.
&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for NCZ046-047-081-095.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EST Sunday for NCZ103.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for NCZ103-104.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for NCZ095-104.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ130-135-156.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ131.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Gale Warning until 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX