River Flood Warning 16, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1105 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous Hurricane Florence will approach from the southeast
today before slowing down near the southeast coast of North
Carolina tonight. Florence is then forecast to very slowly move
into South Carolina Saturday. Significant and life threatening
impacts are likely to be felt across eastern North Carolina.
Please continue to follow the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Hurricane Florence continues to approach the
area, with the outer rainbands of the storm beginning to lash
coastal areas through midday. Wind gusts near 60 mph and rain
rates around 2 inches per hour have been observed withing the
rainbands through moved onshore this morning, and conditions are
expected rapidly deteriorate through the rest of the day. See
HLSMHX for the complete rundown of expected impacts from
Florence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Significant/life threatening impacts from
Hurricane Florence are likely tonight into Friday. Florence is
expected to move very slowly toward the far SE coast of N
Carolina Friday. The slow motion will keep very strong winds and
extremely heavy rain over the region. Rainfall totals by late
Fri could be in the 15 to 20 inch range over the srn coastal
sections with locally higher amounts poss, likely producing
catastrophic flooding. The highest storm surge will also occur
during this period and inundation of up to 9 to 13 feet above
ground will be possible near and to the north and east of the
center of the storm across the southern North Carolina coast,
including the Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well
as adjacent streams and bays. Wind gusts could reach 100 mph
over the beaches from Cape Lookout to Surf City.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thu...Hurricane Florence is forecast to very
slowly move WSW into SC Sat. The slow motion will keep threat
for very heavy rain over the srn tier with cont threat of
catastrophic flash flooding with rainfall totals reaching 20 to
30 inches in spots. The cont strong winds will also cont the
threat for dangerous storm surge flooding...espcly over the srn
coast, Pamlico Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, as well as
adjacent streams and bays.

For more details on the potentially serious impacts to Eastern
NC, please take a look at our latest storm briefing by copy and
pasting this url:

https:/www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

Sunday through Wed...Florence is expected to eventually drift
away from the region early next week. There remains much
uncertainty to where Florence will move, and where any residual
associated organized rainfall will occur. Have cont likely pops
Sunday then cont broad high chance PoPs for the area into Wed.
High temps look to be near normal again with lots of clouds
around with highs in the 80s, and lows will be mostly in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Friday/...
As of 120 am Thu...MVFR ceilings at area terminals and this will
continue through the entire period. Only widely scattered
showers at present, but coverage and intensity will increase
quickly by around daybreak and continue through the day into Thu
night as rainbands from Hurricane Florence spread across the
area. Tropical storm force wind gusts are likely by midday Thu
producing dangerous aviation conditions.

Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Wed...Thursday night into Saturday, there will
likely be a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions with the
arrival of Hurricane Florence. With strong winds expected, there
will be considerable hazards to flying, as well as very heavy
and prolonged rainfall. Scattered to numerous showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms will continue over the region through
Sunday producing sub-VFR conditions at times. Early next week
precipitation is expected to become more scattered in nature as
Florence moves away from the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 11 AM Thu...Marine conditions will continue to rapidly
deteriorate as dangerous Hurricane Florence approaches the area.
Wind and sea conditions are extremely unsafe for any mariners.

Long Term /Fri through Monday/...
As of 500 PM Tue...Hurricane Force winds will continue over the
waters into Fri with tropical storm force winds expected Fri
night and Sat. Some extreme winds are possible over the western
portions of the southern waters Fri night if Florence's eyewall
passes nearby as currently forecasted. SE winds are forecast to
subside to 15-20 kt Sun and Mon.

As Florence moves through the waters and inland Fri/Fri night seas
will peak at 20-30 ft across the coastal waters, and very
slowly subside but remain elevated 10 ft or higher Friday night
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 330 AM Thu...Hurricane Florence expected to produce
historic flooding for NC. Unprecedented rainfall is expected to
occur in the local area over the next few days.

Flooding will have a one-two punch in the area with high risk for
flash flooding during the event followed by prolonged and
significant river flooding. The NHC continues to show a slowing in
forward speed of Florence as it moves closer to the NC coast over
the next couple days. This drawn out torrential rain event starting
today will last through Saturday evening. The peak intensity of
the rain will occur between this evening through Fri evening where
as much as 20 inches of rain could fall as the storm comes to a
crawl somewhere near and west of our southern coastal counties.
With the area under the right front quadrant of the storm we
can expect continued onshore flow rich in tropical moisture with
PWAT values >3.00" (record PW is 3.38" for MHX). Upper level
divergence favors an expansion of the heavy rain inland across
all portions of the area, however totals will be less especially
in the northeast areas which will be more dependent on the less
predictable rain bands. All other locations can expect 1 to 2
feet of rain, locally as high as 3 feet. Despite dry antecedent
conditions and near normal streamflows, we can anticipate
rapidly developing flash floods starting this evening. Rainfall
rates could reach 4-6 in/hr in heavier bands.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Hurricane Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-
     104.
     Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-103.
     Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ090>095-098-
     104.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF/JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/HSA
MARINE...RF/JME
HYDROLOGY...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

NCZ029-044>047-080-081-092>094-142000-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
Jones-Craven-Pamlico-
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Storm Surge Warning.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ079-090-091-142000-
Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ095-098-103-104-142000-
Carteret-Onslow-Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
351 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Hurricane Warning.
   Storm Surge Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1213 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     STORM SURGE      ENGELHARD               35.51N 75.99W
09/13/2018                   HYDE               NC   PUBLIC

            MINOR FLOODING AT HILLTOP RD AND GOLDEN ST.

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HURRICANE        FORT MACON              34.70N 76.69W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            70 MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUST AT FORT MACON SO
            FAR.

&&

DAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
314 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     STORM SURGE      1 SSE OREGON INLET      35.77N 75.53W
09/13/2018                   DARE               NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DARE COUNTY EM REPORTS OCEAN OVERWASH IN
            SEVERAL PLACES ON HIGHWAY 12 FROM BONNER
            BRIDGE TO HATTERAS ISLAND.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     STORM SURGE      2 SW BRIDGETON          35.10N 77.04W
09/13/2018                   CRAVEN             NC   PUBLIC

            THE NEUSE RIVER HAS CROSSED EAST FRONT
            STREET AT SOUTH FRONT STREET IN NEW BERN.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     STORM SURGE      2 SW BRIDGETON          35.10N 77.04W
09/13/2018                   CRAVEN             NC   PUBLIC

            THE NEUSE RIVER HAS CROSSED EAST FRONT
            STREET AT SOUTH FRONT STREET IN NEW BERN.

0141 PM     STORM SURGE      1 SSE OREGON INLET      35.77N 75.53W
09/13/2018                   DARE               NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DARE COUNTY EM REPORTS OCEAN OVERWASH IN
            SEVERAL PLACES ON HIGHWAY 12 FROM BONNER
            BRIDGE TO HATTERAS ISLAND.

0113 PM     HURRICANE        FORT MACON              34.70N 76.69W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            70 MPH MAXIMUM WIND GUST AT FORT MACON SO
            FAR.

1140 AM     STORM SURGE      ENGELHARD               35.51N 75.99W
09/13/2018                   HYDE               NC   PUBLIC

            MINOR FLOODING AT HILLTOP RD AND GOLDEN ST.

1111 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SSW HAVELOCK          34.88N 76.91W
09/13/2018                   CRAVEN             NC   AWOS

            AWOS NKT REPORTS PEAK WIND GUST OF 56 MPH.

1045 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW NEWPORT            34.78N 76.88W
09/13/2018  M1.50 INCH       CARTERET           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1-HOUR MEASURED RAINFALL OF 1.50 INCHES AT
            NWS NEWPORT.

1030 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ESE HARKERS ISLAND    34.69N 76.53W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE VISITORS
            CENTER REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST RESULTING
            IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS.

0951 AM     STORM SURGE      AVON                    35.35N 75.51W
09/13/2018                   DARE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OCEAN OVER WASH/STORM SURGE WITH WATER ON
            OCEAN VIEW DR. TO NC 12 IN AVON.

0945 AM     STORM SURGE      3 W HARKERS ISLAND      34.69N 76.61W
09/13/2018                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT HARKERS ISLAND.

&&