Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through mid to late week.
Associated warm and moist southerly flow will produce above
normal chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 705 PM Sunday...The beginnings of an "Atmospheric River"
type of event is forecast to begin late tonight and continue
into mid week as a plume of tropical moisture characterized by
PW values AOA 2" spreads into our area and interacts with a
persistent mid level trough and associated pertubations which
will lead to periods of enhanced rainfall. The first of these
events is expected after midnight mainly east of Highway 17 as
tropical streamers move in off the ocean with the potential for
training of cells producing locally heavy rains. The high
resolution models are indicating the potential for local 4"+
amounts by late Monday. WPC has our area in a "Slight" risk for
excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Considering the forecast of
the heaviest rains over the next 24 hours will be over an area
that received heavy rain Fri night into Sat, the risk for
flooding of low lying areas will be enhanced. The need for a
Flash Flood Watch will addressed after the next model run this
evening. In the meantime, diurnally enhanced convection
continues over the area though the the threat of severe weather
should be diminishing with the loss of heating. Expect the
better coverage of precipitation to translate east closer to
the coast with the heaviest amounts expected after midnight.
Warm and muggy temperatures in the low/mid 70s expected
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 335 PM Sunday...A plume of deep moisture with SSE/S low-
level flow, coupled with a stalled frontal boundary, will set
the stage for a wet day on Monday. Will have likely to
categorical PoPs for Monday as waves of showers and
thunderstorms develop and move from south to north through the
day. With precipitable water values above 2 inches and training
likely, some localized heavy rainfall amounts will be possible.
Cloud cover and rain will hold max temperatures in the lower 80s
in most areas for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...A warm and moist southerly flow will
persist through this week due to lingering low pressure to the
west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading
to unsettled weather conditions from through much of next week.

Monday Night through Wednesday...Deep, warm, and moist
southerly flow will persist through much of the upcoming week
between broad low pressure aloft over the Deep South states and
western Atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for
widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during
peak heating and when periodic shortwaves move through mean flow
aloft. Timing of midlevel features remains the unknown at this
time. The highest chances for rain will be roughly Monday Night
through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up over Eastern
NC with an elongated axis of very high PWATs stretching from
the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Given persistence amongst
guidance over the past several runs, have increased PoPs
slightly during this time frame, with the potential for 2 to 5
inches of rainfall, highest closer to the coast, Monday night
through Wednesday. Will continue to highlight flood potential in
HWO. While moisture will be abundant, instability and shear
will be marginal for supporting widespread severe convection;
thus expect diurnally-driven isolated severe storm potential
each afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...The persistent upper trough to our
west finally fills and shifts northeast from the Deep South
states towards the Mid-Atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Another deep trough digs into the northern Great Lakes
region, which will shift the moisture advection from S/SE to
southwesterly. Expect convection to be more diurnally focused
each day with a more typical summertime pattern.

Temperatures Monday Night through Wednesday will be a few
degrees below climatological normals, ranging from highs in the
mid to upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s for the coast. Temps
will rise to average late July temperatures by Thursday through
the weekend. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 705 PM Sunday...A plume of tropical moisture is forecast
to move over Eastern NC tonight into mid week which will help
support heavy showers and thunderstorms. For tonight most of
this activity is expected just east of the TAF sites, however,
OAJ and EWN are forecast to be be on the western edge of the
main precipitation area and have the best chance to experience
periodic sub VFR conditions, mainly after midnight. Monday the
precipitation should become more widespread and spread inland
with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely at the TAF sites.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Periodic Sub-VFR conditions are
expected through Thursday as an unsettled pattern develops
across Eastern NC. Southerly flow will persist through much of
next week. Lowered ceilings and visibilities will be more likely
Monday night through Wednesday, then during the overnight hours
for locations that receive precipitation and that can become
calm/decouple prior to sunrise early each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Monday/...
As of 705 PM Sunday...Southerly flow 15 to 25 kt with gusts to
30 kt at times will continue over the waters through Mon as the
gradient tightens between Atlantic high pressure and and low
pressure inland. Seas 4 to 6 ft early this evening will build to
5-9 later tonight and through the day Monday. No changes needed
to current advisories.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...SCA conditions expected to start the week
with SE winds 15-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft. Low end SCA conditions
are expected over the waters from Tuesday through Thursday when
moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low pressure well
west of the waters and high pressure across the western Atlantic
Ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes
of the coastal waters. While boating conditions will be poor for
most of the period, conditions will be exacerbated by a
prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms from approximately
Monday night through Wednesday. Winds and seas will eventually
fall below SCA levels by late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JME/MS
MARINE...DAG/JME/CTC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
507 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WINTERVILLE         35.56N 77.40W
07/22/2018                   PITT               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON S. MEMORIAL DRIVE NEAR
            WESTHAVEN ROAD.

&&

CQD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
510 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AYDEN                   35.47N 77.42W
07/22/2018                   PITT               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            THROUGHOUT AYDEN. TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            ON ROUNDTREE ROAD.

&&

CQD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
523 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ029-044-080-222200-
Beaufort-Martin-Pitt-
523 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PITT...CENTRAL
MARTIN AND NORTHWESTERN BEAUFORT COUNTIES...

At 522 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Stokes, or 11
miles southwest of Williamston, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williamston, Robersonville, Gold Point, Everetts and Beargrass.

Seek Shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Strong winds are
capable of knocking down small trees and blowing around trash cans,
potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3593 7703 3589 7702 3589 7704 3588 7703
      3587 7705 3586 7704 3586 7701 3588 7697
      3569 7718 3578 7732 3594 7720 3593 7717
      3594 7713 3593 7712 3593 7709 3594 7707
      3594 7705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 216DEG 20KT 3576 7723

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ045-046-080-081-222300-
Washington-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Tyrrell-
617 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHWESTERN HYDE...NORTHEASTERN BEAUFORT AND WEST CENTRAL TYRRELL
COUNTIES...

At 617 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sladesville, or
29 miles east of River Road, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds gusts 30 to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sladesville, Scranton, Ponzer, Pamlico Beach, Leechville, Rose Bay
and Pungo Lake.

Seek Shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Strong winds are
capable of knocking down small trees and blowing around trash cans,
potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3536 7637 3535 7661 3576 7662 3578 7633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 179DEG 31KT 3544 7648

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ045-046-222330-
Washington-Tyrrell-
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN TYRRELL COUNTIES...

At 658 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Phelps Lake, or
15 miles east of Plymouth, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodley, Pleasant Grove, Scuppernong, Phelps Lake and Creswell.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3603 7632 3574 7636 3574 7660 3600 7659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 182DEG 39KT 3583 7647

27

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