Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
934 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Sat...Updated pops to reflect latest radar trends.
Area of showers and thunderstorms continues to persist from NE
NC down into the coastal plain, including Greenville and
Kinston. Cells have been weakening with waning instability and
little/no shear, but still putting out quite a bit of lightning
and moderate to heavy rain. Will forecast likely pops across the
NW areas for the few hours then gradually tapering off.
Stronger outflows have developed from these storms, and precip
could build southward off the outflow boundaries. Overnight,
expect low temps to reach the low 70s inland, and the mid to
upper 70s near the coast. Some patchy fog will again be
possible, especially in areas that received rainfall today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sat...Very similar conditions are expected Sunday
as high pressure continues to ridge in from the east. Some
scattered sea breeze showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by late morning, and eventually push inland through the
afternoon. Have slight chance to chance PoPs to account for
this. Very little wind shear will be present, however CAPE
values will reach 3000-4000 J/kg, so organized convection is
unlikely unless a complex of storms is able to form. High
temperatures will reach the low 90s inland, and the upper 80s to
around 90 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Upper ridging will continue to be the
major weather feature over the Eastern US through next week. The
ridge will strengthen to over 2 SD above normal through mid
next week then weaken slightly by next weekend while remaining
over the Eastern US. A weak surface trough will be over the area
Sunday, then dissipate south of the area early next week.
Surface high pressure will build over the area early through
late next week. There will be generally a 20-30% chance of
mainly diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms each day.
Temperatures will continue very warm Sunday with highs inland
around 90, then readings are forecast to be slightly cooler but
still at or slightly above climatological norms with highs in
the mid to upper 80s the remainder of the period due to low
level easterly flow off the ocean. Overnight lows will run above
normal with temperatures in the 70s through the period.

Sunday Night-Friday...High pressure will build over the area
through the period with mainly diurnally driven afternoon/early
evening showers and thunderstorms each day. As the upper ridge
weakens late in the period, chances for showers and
thunderstorms should improve by next weekend. It will remain
humid through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...VFR conditions currently across the
sites this evening. Widely scattered showers and storms
continue inland early this evening, which could briefly impact
PGV and ISO through 02z. Another round of fog and stratus likely
to develop late tonight and Sunday morning. Trended with
persistence, with all terminals seeing the potential for sub-
VFR. Any fog and stratus should dissipate between 12-13z,
becoming VFR. Isolated to widely scattered diurnally drive
showers and storms likely again Sunday afternoon and evening.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through
most of the period. There will be a chance for brief sub VFR
conditions in isolated to scattered showers and tstms each
afternoon/early evening along with periods of possible late
night/early morning stratus/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 935 PM Sat...Latest obs show E/SE winds 5-10 kt with seas
2-3 ft. SE winds will become more variable late tonight and
early Sunday morning, then becoming more easterly through the
day. Winds will turn to the east Sunday morning 5-10 kts. Seas
are expected to remain mostly 2-3 ft, with the exception of the
northern waters where some 4 foot seas are likely through
tonight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Generally benign conditions, outside of
any isolated to scattered convective activity is expected over
the waters through at least mid next week. A weak trough of low
pressure will move slowly through the area Sunday and dissipate,
then high pressure will build over the area from the north
through late next week. Easterly flow mainly 10kt or less is
forecast through mid next week with 2-3 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGK
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/CQD/MS
MARINE...JME/CQD/SGK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-021945-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Craven-Pamlico-Carteret-Onslow-
Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
335 PM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat indices of around 100 degrees are expected on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2018

NCZ044-079-012315-
Greene-Pitt-
643 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENE AND WEST CENTRAL PITT
COUNTIES...

At 643 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lizzie, or near
Farmville, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Snow Hill, Ormondsville, Maury, Jason, Lizzie, Castoria,
Fort Run VFD, Shine, Bull Head VFD and Walstonburg.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3560 7779 3565 7759 3548 7749
      3537 7770 3538 7770 3537 7777 3537 7780
      3540 7780 3543 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 063DEG 13KT 3554 7763

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