Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Florence will slowly track west-northwest
tonight. Showers will become lighter during the day today with
the highest chances for showers mid afternoon. Major river
flooding will continue through the middle of the work week.
Quiet weather finally returns to the region by the middle of the
week behind a cold front Tuesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM...Tropical Depression Florence currently is
located about 30 miles east northeast of Asheville, NC and is
still producing heavy rainfall. Dry air built in overnight as
mid level winds shifted from southeast to south. This reduced
the overall shower impact during the evening hours. As the
remnants of Florence lift north into the Ohio Valley region
there's some chance that a more organized band will stretch
east across the coastal plain and bring more showers with
embedded thunderstorms. Highs today will generally stay in the
low to mid 80s under mostly cloud skies and southerly winds.
Lows this evening will only fall to the mid 70s which is some
5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...The remnants of Florence should push into
the Ohio Valley region late Monday and then will sweep a weak
cold front across the region Tuesday night. The upper level
trough digs right into the Carolinas and will bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Basin rainfall averages will
on the lighter side averaging a few tenths to a quarter of an
inch however with modest CAPE and a tropical airmass in place we
could see some moderate to heavy rainfall in the showers.
Unfortunately this extra rainfall will only intensify the
current ongoing flooding issues. Behind the front quiet weather
returns in the form of high pressure with highs in the mid 80s
and lows dropping from the low to mid 70s which is near normal
for highs but around 5-10 degrees above normal for overnight
lows.

Full details about the on-going hydrology forecast and impacts
can be found below in the Hydro discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 409 AM Sunday...Quiet weather finally pushes in during
the middle of the work week and high pressure builds in over the
Southeast. Temps will trend warmer heading into the weekend with
highs pushing into the mid to upper 80s and heat index values
pushing into the low 90s. Overnight lows will stay in the upper
60s to low 70s. As we come out of the weekend the ridge breaks
down and we'll see some showers to track through the Mid-
Atlantic region with the potential to make it all the way into
the coastal NC plain however there's still quite a bit of time
to see how that will play out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Wednesday/...
Generally expect a mix of VFR/MVFR through the rest of the
overnight hours becoming MVFR across the region during the
daytime hours Monday. Expect showers to move through during the
afternoon hours which could bring down visibilities briefly but
otherwise we should start to see improvement heading into
Monday night. Winds during the period will remain out of the
south to southeast through Monday night before becoming
southwest to west on Tuesday.

Long Term /Wednesday through Friday/... As of 145 PM
Sunday..Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday and
Wednesday as a cold front pushes the remnants of Florence back
across the region and eventually out to sea. Dry weather
expected later Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Monday... TD Florence will lift north along the
spine of the Appalachians today. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
will reside offshore of New England. The flow between these two
features will allow for SE winds 10-15kt to become S late by
late today. Seas will remain 4-7ft necessitating the
continuation of SCAs all coastal waters through this evening.
For tonight, winds will shift to the SSW as the upper through
associated with the remnants Florence head east and high
pressure pushes farther offshore. Seas subside to 4-5 ft with
SCAs ending.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/...
As of 330 AM Monday... SW winds are forecast at 15-20 kt Tue
all waters. Seas 4-5 ft, potentially up to 6 ft. A front will
push thru Tue night with NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt and seas
mainly 3 to 5 feet Wed then NE around 10 kt Thu with 2-4 ft
seas. Light ESE winds prevail by Friday with seas 2-4 ft.&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Update as of 0400 AM Sunday September 16

The remnants of Tropical Depression Florence will continue to
slide north-northeast along the spine of the Appalachians,
through western VA, KY and WV this afternoon. The current bands
will gradually shift more to a S to N orientation and have
remained generally west of the MHX CWA, residing closer to a
Wilmington to Raleigh to Roanoke line. While this does not imply
the eastern reaches of NC will be rain free, the heavier bands
should remain to the west, with only isolated heavier showers
and thunderstorms into Monday afternoon.

The Chicod Creek continues to drop this evening and has fallen
below flood stage. With minimal additional rainfall expected,
the flood warning has been dropped.

Otherwise with widespread precipitation amounts between 0.5 and
1.0 inches (a few spots may see 1-2 inches locally in
thunderstorms) Areal and River Flood Warnings will persist for
some time as water upstream continues to flow through rivers
across E NC. The Neuse, Trent and Cape Fear rivers will likely
take the longest to fully recede, with forecasts remaining well
above flood stage through the remainder of the week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ080-
     081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ045>047-093>095-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Deal
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ029-044-079-172000-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The remnants of Florence will cross the area with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions expected the rest
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ103-104-172000-
Outer Banks Dare-Outer Banks Hyde-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

In addition...the remnants of Florence will cross the area with a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of
moderate to heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions
expected the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ080-081-172000-
Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The remnants of Florence will cross the area with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions expected the rest
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ090>092-172000-
Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The remnants of Florence will cross the area with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions expected the rest
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ095-172000-
Carteret-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

In addition...the remnants of Florence will cross the area with a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of
moderate to heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions
expected the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-093-094-172000-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Craven-Pamlico-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The remnants of Florence will cross the area with a cold front
Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions expected the rest
of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ098-172000-
Onslow-
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

In addition...the remnants of Florence will cross the area with a
cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday...bringing another round of
moderate to heavy rainfall to the area. Dry weather conditions
expected the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DeRosa