Alert archive / Oregon / Wind Advisories in 2018
Wind Advisory 6, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this wind advisory at Jan 23, 2018, 2:22 PM PST for Modoc County, California; Klamath County, Lake County, Oregon. It took effect at Jan 24, 2018, 4:00 AM PST. It was in force for 33 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 23, 2018, 2:22 PM PST (22:22 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 24, 2018, 4:00 AM PST
- Expired
- Jan 25, 2018, 1:00 PM PST
- In force
- 33 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 896 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 274 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
220 WWUS76 KMFR 232222 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 222 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...Strong south winds late today and Wednesday... .Another strong cold front will bring strong south winds to the coast, Shasta Valley and portions of Lake and Klamath Counties late today and Wednesday. CAZ085-241100- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KMFR.HW.W.0005.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ Modoc County- Including the cities of Alturas and Likely 222 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a High Wind Warning...which is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday. A Wind Advisory has also been issued. This Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday. * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the warning area and south 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in the advisory area. * Timing: Tonight through Wednesday evening. * Locations include: Locations in the warning area include Highway 395 near Cedar Pass and the Warner Mountains. Locations in the advisory area include central and eastern Modoc County including the cities of Alturas and Likely. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ081-241100- /O.EXT.KMFR.HW.W.0004.180124T0000Z-180124T2100Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 222 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. * Timing: Today through Wednesday morning. * Locations include: The southern Shasta Valley including Interstate 5 from Weed north to Grenada. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... The strongest winds are expected in the southern Shasta Valley near Weed. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ ORZ030-031-241100- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the city of Valley Falls 222 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday. * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the warning area and south 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the advisory area. * Timing: Tonight through Wednesday evening. * Locations include: Locations in the warning area include Highway 31 south of Silver Lake to the 395 interchange as well as the higher mountains in Lake County. Locations in the advisory area include the cities of Silver Lake, Valley Falls, Highway 395 north of Lakeview, and Highway 140 east of Lakeview. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ ORZ021-022-241100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0004.180124T0000Z-180124T1200Z/ South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast- Including the cities of Bandon, Port Orford, and Gold Beach 222 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds: South winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Higher gusts are possible along headlands and capes. * Timing: Today and tonight. * Locations include: Coastal communities from Cape Ferrelo to Cape Arago, including Gold Beach, Port Orford, and Cape Blanco. * Impacts: Strong winds will combine with heavy rain to produce hazardous driving conditions, especially for high profile vehicles. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$
7 follow-up statements
722 WWUS76 KMFR 232253 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 253 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...Strong south winds late today and Wednesday... .Another strong cold front will bring strong south winds to the coast, Shasta Valley and portions of Lake and Klamath Counties late today and Wednesday. CAZ085-ORZ030-031-241100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, and Valley Falls 253 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the warning area and south 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the advisory area. * Timing: Tonight through Wednesday evening. * Locations include: Locations in the warning area include Highway 31 south of Silver Lake to the 395 interchange, Highway 299 at Cedar Pass, the higher mountains in Lake County, and the Warner Mountains in Modoc County. Locations in the advisory area include the cities of Silver Lake, Valley Falls, Highway 395 north of Lakeview, and Highway 140 east of Lakeview in Oregon and central and eastern Modoc County in California including the cities of Alturas and Likely. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ ORZ021-022-241100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0004.180124T0000Z-180124T1200Z/ South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast- Including the cities of Bandon, Port Orford, and Gold Beach 253 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds: South winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Higher gusts are possible along headlands and capes. * Timing: Today and tonight. * Locations include: Coastal communities from Cape Ferrelo to Cape Arago, including Gold Beach, Port Orford, and Cape Blanco. * Impacts: Strong winds will combine with heavy rain to produce hazardous driving conditions, especially for high profile vehicles. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ CAZ081-241100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0004.180124T0000Z-180124T2100Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 253 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. * Timing: Today through Wednesday morning. * Locations include: The southern Shasta Valley including Interstate 5 from Weed north to Grenada. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... The strongest winds are expected in the southern Shasta Valley near Weed. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$
319 WWUS76 KMFR 241121 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 321 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ORZ021-022-241230- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180124T1200Z/ South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast- 321 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the High Wind Warning. Although the strongest winds have weakened, winds will remain gusty through the morning. $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-242330- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.180124T1200Z-180125T0600Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, and Valley Falls 321 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the warning area and south 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the advisory area. * Timing: Through Wednesday evening. * Locations in the warning area include: Highway 31 south of Silver Lake to the 395 interchange, Highway 299 at Cedar Pass, the higher mountains in Lake County, and the Warner Mountains in Modoc County. * Locations in the advisory area include: The cities of Silver Lake, Valley Falls, Highway 395 north of Lakeview, and Highway 140 east of Lakeview in Oregon, and central and eastern Modoc County in California, including the cities of Alturas and Likely. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ081-242100- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180124T2100Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 321 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. * Timing: Through Wednesday morning. * Locations include: The southern Shasta Valley including Interstate 5 from Weed north to Grenada. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... The strongest winds are expected in the southern Shasta Valley near Weed. A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. && $$ BPN
492 WWUS76 KMFR 242055 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1255 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 CAZ081-242200- /O.EXP.KMFR.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180124T2100Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 1255 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon, but should remain below advisory criteria. $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-250600- /O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180125T0600Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, and Valley Falls 1255 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING... * Winds: South 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the warning area and south 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph in the advisory area. * Timing: Through this evening. * Locations in the warning area include: Highway 31 south of Silver Lake to the 395 interchange, Highway 299 at Cedar Pass, the higher mountains in Lake County, and the Warner Mountains in Modoc County. * Locations in the advisory area include: The cities of Silver Lake, Valley Falls, Highway 395 north of Lakeview, and Highway 140 east of Lakeview in Oregon, and central and eastern Modoc County in California, including the cities of Alturas and Likely. * Impacts: Driving may become hazardous, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be impacted, especially for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ Petrucelli
421 WWUS76 KMFR 250213 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 613 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...Strong winds through this evening then again on Thursday... .Strong, gusty winds will continue through this evening over portions of the east side as a cold front moves through. Winds weaken overnight, but then increase again Thursday morning as a strong upper level disturbances moves through. Winds have already diminished in the Shasta Valley, but they will increase again Thursday morning. CAZ085-ORZ030-031-251200- /O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180125T0600Z/ /O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180125T2100Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 613 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THURSDAY... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... * Winds: South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. * Timing: Gusty winds will continue through this evening then diminish overnight. A second surge in wind is expected mid to late morning Thursday. * Locations include: Much of Lake County and eastern Modoc County. This includes U.S. highway 395 from Alturas, CA north through Alkali Lake, OR, Oregon highway 31 south and east of Silver Lake to highway 395, and higher terrain adjacent to these areas. * Impacts: Driving will be difficult at times, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ081-251200- /O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.180125T1200Z-180125T1800Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 613 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Thursday. * Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible. * Timing...Breezy winds will continue through tonight, then winds increase again Thursday morning. * Locations include...The southern end of the Shasta Valley including Interstate 5 from Weed north to near Grenada. * Impacts...Driving will be difficult at times, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
878 WWUS76 KMFR 251144 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 344 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-252100- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180125T2100Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 344 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * Winds: South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. * Timing: Mid to late morning Thursday. * Locations include: Much of Lake County and eastern Modoc County. This includes U.S. highway 395 from Alturas, CA north through Alkali Lake, OR, Oregon highway 31 south and east of Silver Lake to highway 395, and higher terrain adjacent to these areas. * Impacts: Driving will be difficult at times, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ CAZ081-251800- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.180125T1200Z-180125T1800Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 344 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... * Winds...South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph possible. * Timing...Through Thursday morning. * Locations include...The southern end of the Shasta Valley including Interstate 5 from Weed north to near Grenada. * Impacts...Driving will be difficult at times, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
530 WWUS76 KMFR 251813 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1013 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 CAZ081-251915- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180125T1800Z/ Central Siskiyou County- Including the city of Weed 1013 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Winds have decreased below advisory level. $$ CAZ085-ORZ030-031-252100- /O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180125T2100Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 1013 AM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * Winds: South 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. * Timing: Peaking late this morning. * Locations include: Much of Lake County and eastern Modoc County. This includes U.S. highway 395 from Alturas, CA north through Alkali Lake, OR, Oregon highway 31 south and east of Silver Lake to highway 395, and higher terrain adjacent to these areas. * Impacts: Driving will be difficult at times, especially for high profile vehicles. Loose items may be blown about. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
341 WWUS76 KMFR 252048 NPWMFR URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1248 PM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 CAZ085-ORZ030-031-252200- /O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180125T2100Z/ Modoc County- Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County- Central and Eastern Lake County- Including the cities of Alturas, Likely, Adel, Lakeview, and Valley Falls 1248 PM PST Thu Jan 25 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... Gusty winds will continue to lower through early this evening. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 23, 9:23 AM PST, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 9:23 AM PST, 4 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
923 AM PST Tue Jan 23 2018
.SHORT TERM...A low moving into British Columbia will bring a cold
front into the coast late today into this evening. An upper
trough will drop down off the Pacific Northwest coast tonight into
Wednesday and the surface front will gradually move eastward
across the area.
Models are on track with this front bringing heavy rain to the
coast with inland areas seeing significant snow over the higher
mountains from the Cascades west, with areas of light to moderate
snow east of the Cascades. Heavy rain is expected to develop
along the coast by this evening and peak overnight into Wednesday
morning with amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rain expected for
coastal areas. Inland, moderate precipitation will spread across
the western portions of the area this evening and continue into
Wednesday. A mix of light to moderate precipitation will spread
east of the Cascades late tonight and Wednesday. Snow levels are
forecast around 5000 feet in the Cascades this evening as
precipitation increases, lowering to 4000 feet late tonight into
Wednesday. Precipitation along with lowering snow levels, will
bring significant snow to the higher mountain passes in the
Cascades, over the higher mountains in the Siskiyous and to
portions of western and central Siskiyou County. Also expect areas
of moderate to heavy snow to develop east of the Cascades in
northern and central Klamath county and over the higher terrain in
western Lake County on Wednesday. Winter storm warnings and
winter weather advisories are in effect. Please see the WSWMFR
for details.
Additionally, ahead of the front, expect strong southerly winds
to develop along the coast this afternoon into this evening, and
inland today into tonight in the Shasta Valley and east of the
Cascades, including near Summer Lake. These inland areas will see
strong winds persist into Wednesday as the front gradually moves
across the area. High wind warnings are in effect for these
areas. Please see the NPWMFR for details.
The upper trough will move overhead Wednesday night and Thursday.
Of concern, models show a shortwave low moving around the trough
and into the region on Thursday. This will bring another round of
precipitation with relatively low snow levels. Snow levels down
to 1500 to 2000 feet are possible Wednesday night and Thursday
morning with light snow accumulations possible on lower mountains
in western areas, including the Sexton Summit area. Snow levels
may rise slightly during the day Thursday to 2500 feet. Given
model variability and the potential for impacts, will need to
monitor the track and timing of this shortwave with future model
runs.
&&
.AVIATION...23/12Z TAF CYCLE...Conditions are predominantly VFR
early this morning, but light rain has begun at the coast in advance
of a strong front. The front will bring slowly deteriorating
conditions and strengthening southerly winds today through tonight.
IFR will develop at the coast this evening with rain becoming
moderate to locally heavy then persisting through the night.
Conditions will remain mainly VFR farther inland but precipitation
and local MVFR with mountain obscuration will develop toward evening.
-DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Tuesday 23 Jan 2018...Seas are
steep and hazardous and will continue to build today into this
evening as a cold front approaches. The front will bring south gales
today into this evening then persist into early Wednesday morning.
Winds will diminish to advisory strength later Wednesday after the
front has moved inland, but seas will remain high and steep. The
next front will bring thunderstorms potential Wednesday night and
Thursday.
Seas will peak again at around 18 to 20 feet Thursday evening. Winds
will slightly decrease Friday then increase again ahead of the next
strong front Friday evening. A series of fronts are expected to move
through this weekend into early next week. -FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 AM PST Tue Jan 23 2018/
DISCUSSION...Have not made many changes to the going forecast
overnight, other than to fine tune winds in the areas where high
wind warnings are up for late Tuesday through Wednesday. This is
for portions of the coast, the Shasta Valley and the east side.
See details at NPWMFR. Also made some adjustments to the winter
weather headlines to account for changes in timing, and to add
Western Siskiyou County to the mix. More on that below, and at
WSWMFR.
A significant frontal system will arrive Tuesday bringing a wide
variety of weather including strong, gusty winds, heavy rain, and
higher elevation snow to the forecast area through Wednesday.
Rain will arrive at the coast during the mid-late morning, then
push inland during the afternoon. Strong southerly winds in
advance of this system will lead to some downslope flow in the
west side valleys, particularly the Shasta and Rogue Valleys,
where it may not rain much at all until Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Much like with the last couple of fronts, we'll likely
get breezy for a while here in the Rogue Valley, especially at the
south end near Ashland, but probably not quite to levels that
would warrant an advisory. Rainfall through Wednesday evening
will be quite heavy along the coast with amounts 1.50-3.00 inches
north of Cape Blanco and 3.00-5.00 inches south of there, focused
in the Coast Range. Amounts of 1.50-3.00 inches will also occur in
western Siskiyou County up into southern portions of the Illinois
Valley. The remainder of the west side will have mostly 0.75-1.50
inches north of the Umpqua Divide, but 0.25-0.75 inches south.
Snow levels will be a bit higher with this system, but still near
Mount Shasta City. Rather than rehash snow amounts here, I'll
refer you to the winter storm warnings, which can be viewed at
WSWMFR. Colder air will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with
plenty of rain/snow showers.
Models have trended generally wetter for Friday night through
Sunday, especially along and near the coast. There is clear trend
toward less high pressure ridging in from the south Sunday into
Monday in the latest model runs. Along with this, models have
also trended further south, faster, and cooler for the frontal
system early next week.
The long term period begins with an anomalously cold trough of low
pressure extending from Alaska southward to southern California
along the West Coast. Model guidance has collectively trended
toward a slightly stronger onshore flow for Thursday and Friday
which equates to more shower activity and precipitation. Snow
levels continue to be on track to generally be between 1500 and
2500 feet, +/- 500 feet. Thus, we'll be on the lookout for
snowfall on the lower passes such as Jacksonville Hill and the
Sexton Summits. Snow showers will also be possible on or near the
valley floors of the Rogue and Illinois valleys. Of note, the
ECMWF keeps the bulk of the precipitation in the Thursday to
Friday time frame along and near the Coast Range and across
northern California, while the GFS pushes it further inland. Both
models, however, have trended further inland with shower activity
for Friday.
As mentioned above, the forecast for this weekend has trended
wetter/cloudier. The ECMWF still indicates something of a break in
the precipitation Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but only about 6
hours long in the Reedsport area. The GFS, on the other hand, shows
the break during the Sunday afternoon to Monday morning time frame,
with heavy precipitation along the coast Saturday and Sunday.
Coastal interests, in particular, should keep an eye on the details
of the forecast for this weekend because the higher end
precipitation amount solution could push some waterways, especially
smaller ones, to near bankfull. Most likely, amounts will be lesser,
but the realm of possibility does lead us to some concern.
The frontal system early next week arrives at the coast on Sunday on
the ECMWF and on Monday on the GFS. Snow levels, once again, appear
as if they will roller coaster, beginning near 6kft and falling to
near 1500 feet in showers Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029-030.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029-030.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday
for ORZ021-022.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday above 5000
feet in the for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday below
3500 feet in the for CAZ082.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday above 3500
feet in the for CAZ082-083.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
CAZ080.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Friday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
CC/CC/CCNearby
Wind Advisories in Oregon, 2018Wind Advisories in California, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.