Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2018
Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Jul 14, 2018, 2:27 PM PDT for 7 counties in Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Jul 15, 2018, 10:29 AM PDT. It was in force for 9 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2018, 2:27 PM PDT (21:27 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 15, 2018, 10:29 AM PDT
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2018, 7:50 PM PDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2:57 PM PDT | HAIL 1 | Tennant, CA | HAIL SIZES RANGED FROM 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH DIAMETER. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2090 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 31 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
537 WWUS86 KMFR 142127 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 227 PM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018 CAZ285-ORZ624-625-151230- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0005.180715T2100Z-180716T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 227 PM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285, 624, AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Eastern fire weather zone 285 in California, and all of fire weather zones 624 and 625 in Oregon, including the Fremont-Winema and Modoc National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-151230- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0005.180715T2100Z-180716T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 227 PM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, AND 284... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Mainly the higher terrain of fire weather zones 280, 281, 282, and 284 in California, including the Klamath and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ ORZ621-623-151230- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 227 PM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Fire weather zones 621 and 623 in Oregon, including the Siskiyou Mountains, and the Cascades South of Diamond Lake. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ BPN Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford
4 follow-up statements
253 WWUS86 KMFR 151230 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 530 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 CAZ285-ORZ624-625-160000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 530 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285, 624, AND 625... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Eastern fire weather zone 285 in California, and all of fire weather zones 624 and 625 in Oregon, including the Fremont-Winema and Modoc National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-160000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 530 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, AND 284... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Mainly the higher terrain of fire weather zones 280, 281, 282, and 284 in California, including the Klamath and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ ORZ621-623-160000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 530 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Fire weather zones 621 and 623 in Oregon, including the Siskiyou Mountains, and the Cascades South of Diamond Lake. * Thunderstorms: Will develop by early Sunday afternoon, increasing in coverage through the afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Generally west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford
214 WWUS86 KMFR 151729 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1029 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ORZ620-622-160530- /O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1729Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley- Eastern Rogue Valley- 1029 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 620 AND 622... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening. * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: All of Fire Weather Zones 620 and 622 in Oregon. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon. Scattered lightning is possible through the day. * Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds are expected in and around thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-160530- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1729Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 1029 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281... 282 AND 284... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Mainly the higher terrain of fire weather zones 280, 281, 282, and 284 in California, including the Klamath and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ ORZ621-623-160530- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1729Z-180716T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 1029 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Fire weather zones 621 and 623 in Oregon, including the Siskiyou Mountains, and the Cascades South of Diamond Lake. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ624-625-160530- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.180715T1800Z-180716T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 1029 AM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285... 624 AND 625... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Eastern fire weather zone 285 in California, and all of fire weather zones 624 and 625 in Oregon, including the Fremont-Winema and Modoc National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 10 to 15 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
754 WWUS86 KMFR 152327 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 427 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ORZ620-622-160030- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley- Eastern Rogue Valley- 427 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 620 AND 622... The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag Warning. The chances for scattered thunderstorm activity has diminished. Isolated storms are still possible through this evening, especially in the Ashland area. $$ CAZ285-ORZ624-625-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180716T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 427 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285, 624, AND 625... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: All of Fire weather zone 285 in California, and all of fire weather zones 624 and 625 in Oregon, including the Fremont- Winema and Modoc National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 10 to 15 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ ORZ621-623-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180716T0600Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 427 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Fire weather zones 621 and 623 in Oregon, including the Siskiyou Mountains, and the Cascades South of Diamond Lake. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 427 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, AND 284... * Impacts: While wetting rain may occur under the cores of thunderstorms, abundant lightning on dry fuels may produce numerous new starts that pose a threat to life and property, and may overwhelm initial attack capabilities. * Affected area: Mainly the higher terrain of fire weather zones 280, 281, 282, and 284 in California, including the Klamath and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Thunderstorms: Ongoing through this afternoon and evening. Lightning coverage is expected to increase to scattered as the day progresses. * Wind: Northwest 5 to 10 mph, but gusty and erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford
634 WWUS86 KMFR 160250 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 750 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ621-623>625-160400- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-180716T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 750 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285, 624, AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag Warning. The chances for scattered thunderstorm activity has diminished. Isolated storms are still possible through 2100. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jul 14, 8:47 AM PDT, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 8:47 AM PDT, 5 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
847 AM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...Minor updates made this morning, mostly to fine tune
cloud cover and to update wording on thunderstorm coverage for
this afternoon. Isolated showers continue this morning in northern
California. There weren't any lightning strikes recorded overnight
and what was recorded earlier this morning was south of the
forecast area. Isolated thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon in similar areas as yesterday. We aren't expecting more
than isolated since there really isn't any good trigger moving
through today. On Sunday, however, there is a more definitive
trigger moving through as a shortwave trough passes through the
area during max heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected east
of the Cascades and we'll be taking a look at west side potential
for this afternoon's package. It'll be another hot day today and
heat advisories as well as excessive heat warnings remain in
effect through the weekend. For more details on the heat and
thunderstorm chances, see the previous discussion below. /BR-y
&&
.AVIATION...For the 14/12Z TAFs...Marine layer at the coast has
dropped CIGS down to IFR. Expecting the IFR CIGS to lift during the
late morning hours. Elsewhere VFR is expected. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible from the Cascades east and could affect LMT after
22Z Saturday. -FB/CZS
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Saturday 14 July 2018...Northerly
wind wave dominated seas will increase into early this evening with
the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco between 10 and 40 nm from
shore. North Winds briefly weaken on Sunday but seas will remain
steep. Gusty northerly winds with steep to very steep short period
seas will continue next week. An increasing trend is likely. -DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM PDT Sat Jul 14 2018/
DISCUSSION...14/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
One, maybe two thunderstorms managed to get going Friday afternoon
and evening. There were 15 recorded down strikes over northeast
Siskiyou County and one over extreme southern Klamath County. No
fires have been reported in that area, but there is a new one on
the southern end of the Warners in southeast Modoc County. Radar
is showing some weak cells embedded in the cloud band over the
CWA, but no reports of precipitation in the past several hours.
Strong ridging will continue to dominate the western U.S. through
the weekend. It will remain very hot over the inland areas.
Widespread heat impacts will continue across inland western
valleys and heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in
effect through early next week. Please see PDXNPWMFR for details.
Given the moisture that is already in place (1.12 PWATs on the
14/00z KMFR sounding), isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are possible each day. Any upper level triggers that come through
could support overnight convection or enhance the afternoon/evening
convection.
An upper level short wave is now moving through the area and it
isn't doing much overall. So...the activity tonight will likely
remain showers. However, isolated thunderstorm activity still
looks good for Saturday afternoon and evening.
A stronger short wave will move up from the south Sunday and this
one will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity Sunday
afternoon and evening, mostly east of the Cascades and across
northern California. Southwest flow aloft may bring some of these
thunderstorms over the west side over extreme southern Oregon. A
Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this event. See PDXRFWMFR
for details.
Today and Sunday, high temperatures will be near normal along the
coast, while the west side will see highs 10-15 degrees above
normal. Highs will be 5-10 degrees above normal east of the
Cascades.
A weak trough offshore will weaken further and move onshore Monday.
This will bring in a marine push and will act to stabilize the air
mass. It won't bring much cooling beyond the Umpqua Basin though.
In fact, the inland migration of the thermal trough will make it a
few degrees hotter over inland portions of southwest Oregon. High
temperatures will remain about the same as the Sunday highs
elsewhere.
High pressure will rebuild Tuesday. Marine air in the Umpqua Basin
will make for cooler conditions there, but Tuesday will be the
hottest day of the string over the remainder of the inland areas.
It will remain relatively stable and no showers/thunderstorms are
in the forecast. Highs will be near normal along the coast, around
10 degrees above normal in the Umpqua Basin, and 10-15 degrees
above normal over the rest of the area.
Extended discussion from the Friday afternoon AFD...Wednesday 18
July through Saturday 21 July 2018...Stability increases and
thunderstorm chances drop to near nil over most areas. One
exception could be the far Southeastern portion of the CWA (Modoc
and southern Lake Counties) where monsoonal moisture could reach
up and kick off some storms late next week. The heat will abate
some next week, in concert with the thunderstorm threat
diminishing. GEFS members all show the air mass cooling, with some
members showing a significant amount of cooling.
AVIATION...For the 14/06Z TAFs...Marine layer at the coast is
trying to form IFR ceiling tonight but it does not appear to congeal
until around 10Z or so. VFR then returns to the coast by late
morning as north winds increase to gust to near 30 knots. Elsewhere
VFR is expected. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the
Cascades east and could affect LMT after 22Z Saturday. -FB
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday 14 July 2018...Although winds
in the inner waters have decreased, seas continue to be steep due to
a fresh northwest swell. Winds and seas will increase again this
morning into Saturday with the area of strongest winds returning to
south of Cape Blanco and beyond 10 nm away from shore. North Winds
briefly weaken again on Sunday but gusty winds with steep to very
steep seas will continue into next week. -FB/CZS
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday 14 July 2018...Heat
will continue, with variations of a degree or two over the next
several days.
Saturday looks very similar to Friday, although the area of
concern spreads north along the Cascades and across the entire
East Side. The real event looks to arrive Sunday. A robust wave is
expected to move across the area, while monsoonal moisture
reaches a peak. Models are producing a slight chance of thunder
over almost the entire forecast area, with scattered thunderstorms
possible over Siskiyou County and the East Side. Most of these
storms should be wet, but some dry cells are possible, and given
the scattered nature, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
the affected areas. For more details, please see the Fire Weather
Message at PDXRFWMFR.
Looking ahead, the first half of next week looks to stay dry, but
heat and low humidity will continue. Thunderstorm chances return mid
to late next week, but confidence is much too low to nail down
specifics at this time.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for ORZ624-625.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ023.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for CAZ285.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for CAZ280>282-284.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080-081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PDT Monday
for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ376.
MNF/JRS/CZSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 3:03 PM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 8 days |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2018Red Flag Warnings in California, 2018Every red flag warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.