Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Medford, OR

948 
WWUS86 KMFR 142124
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...Dry thunderstorms expected in northeastern California and
south central Oregon Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning...

...Abundant lightning possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening across portions of the interior west side of
northern California and southwestern Oregon...

.Elevated monsoonal moisture and exceptionally dry conditions at
and near the surface will bring the potential for dry
thunderstorms this evening through Wednesday morning across 
northeastern California and portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney 
counties. The thunderstorm threat will expand west and northward 
Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening as available moisture 
increases. Thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades are likely
to produce wetting rainfall at some locations, but also lightning
outside of the rain cores in others.

ORZ617-623-150930-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T1200Z-180816T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0023.180815T0600Z-180816T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
PDT WEDNESDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 617 AND 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded issued a Red
Flag Warning, which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM
PDT Wednesday. 

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms with record to near record 
  dry fuels could lead to numerous new fire starts Wednesday. 
  Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and hold over 
  fires are possible.

* Affected area: The Cascade Crest including far eastern Oregon
  Fire Zone 617 and most of Fire Zone 623. The remainder of fire
  zone 617 remains under the fire weather watch.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
  late tonight through Wednesday evening. Confidence is moderate
  in thunderstorms along and east of the Cascade crest, and low
  west of there. Smoke across the area may inhibit the convection.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.


&&

$$

CAZ284-285-150930-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0023.180815T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285...

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms on exceptionally dry 
  fuels will likely result in new fire starts. Initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are 
  possible. 

* Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 284 
  and all of Fire Weather Zone 285. This includes portions of 
  eastern Siskiyou County as well as Modoc County. 

* Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms will initiate over the Sierras and
  bring isolated dry thunderstorms northward this evening through
  Wednesday morning. Confidence in these thunderstorms occuring 
  is moderate and highest along and near the Warner Mountains.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

&&

$$

ORZ624-625-150930-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.180815T0600Z-180816T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected to result in
  new fire starts tonight through Wednesday evening. Initial 
  attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are 
  possible.

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zones 624 
  and 625 which includes portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney 
  counties.

* Thunderstorms: Dry thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to
  fire spread. For Wednesday afternoon and evening, scattered
  thunderstorms with minimal rainfall are expected. Confidence is
  highest in thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and 
  evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds could lead to significant fire growth 
potential.


&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ621-622-150930-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T1200Z-180816T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 617, 621, AND 622...

* Impacts: Thunderstorms with record to near record dry fuels
  could lead to numerous new fire starts Wednesday. Initial 
  attack resources could be overwhelmed and hold over fires are 
  possible.

* Affected area: The Siskiyou Mountains and the Cascade Foothills.
  Additionally, areas west of the Cascades and south of the Umpqua
  Divide. This includes most of Jackson County and extreme
  southeastern Josephine County. This watch also includes most of
  western Siskiyou County and into the Shasta Valley, but not Mt.
  Shasta itself. 

*Affected fires: This includes much of the South Umpqua Complex
 including the Miles fire. This does NOT include the Taylor Creek
 or Klondike fires.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
  Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Confidence is low
  west of the Cascades. Smoke across the area may inhibit the
  convection. .

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/medford

343 
WWUS86 KMFR 150727
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1227 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Isolated dry thunderstorms in northeastern California and south
central Oregon, mainly from the Cascades eastward overnight into 
Wednesday morning...

...Abundant lightning possible Wednesday through Wednesday evening
across portions of the interior west side, northern California and
from the Cascades eastward...

.Elevated monsoonal moisture and exceptionally dry conditions at
and near the surface will bring the potential for dry thunderstorms
overnight through Wednesday morning across northeastern California
and portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney counties. The
thunderstorm threat will expand west and northward Wednesday
through Wednesday evening as available moisture increases. 
Thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades are likely to produce 
wetting rainfall at some locations, but also lightning outside of 
the rain cores in others.

ORZ617-623-151800-
/O.EXB.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T2100Z-180816T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
1227 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON VERY DRY FUELS FOR 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening.

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms with record to near record
  dry fuels could lead to numerous new fire starts overnight
  through Wednesday evening. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and hold over fires are possible.

* Affected area: The Cascade Crest including most of Fire Weather
  Zone 623 and far eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 617. The
  remainder of Fire Weather Zones 617 and 623, including the South
  Umpqua Complex and the Miles fire, remain under the fire weather
  watch for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
  overnight through Wednesday evening. Confidence is moderate in 
  thunderstorms along and east of the Cascade crest, and low west 
  of there. Smoke across the area may inhibit the convection.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

$$

CAZ284-285-151800-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
1227 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND
285...

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms on exceptionally dry 
  fuels will likely result in new fire starts. Initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are 
  possible. 

* Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 284 
  and all of Fire Weather Zone 285. This includes portions of 
  eastern Siskiyou County as well as Modoc County. 

* Thunderstorms: Isolated dry thunderstorms overnight through
  Wednesday evening. Confidence in these thunderstorms occuring is
  moderate and highest along and near the Warner Mountains.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

$$

ORZ624-625-151800-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1227 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND
625...

* Impacts: Isolated dry thunderstorms could result in new fire 
  starts tonight through Wednesday evening. Initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zones 624 
  and 625 which includes portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney 
  counties.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated dry thunderstorms overnight into 
  Wednesday morning. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to 
  fire spread. For Wednesday afternoon and evening, scattered 
  thunderstorms with minimal rainfall are expected. Confidence is 
  highest in thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds could lead to significant fire growth 
potential.

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ621-622-151800-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T2100Z-180816T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Siskiyou Mountains-
Eastern Rogue Valley-
1227 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 621, AND 622...

* Impacts: Any thunderstorms with record to near record dry fuels
  could lead to numerous new fire starts Wednesday. Initial attack
  resources could be overwhelmed and hold over fires are possible.

* Affected area: From western Siskiyou County northeastward across
  the Siskiyou Mountains to the Cascade Foothills. This includes
  most of Jackson County, extreme southeastern Josephine County and
  the Shasta Valley, but not Mt. Shasta itself. It also affects 
  the Miles Fire, but not the Klondike or Taylor fires.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
  Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Confidence is
  still fairly low west of the Cascades, but higher from the 
  Cascade Foothills eastward. Smoke across the area may inhibit the
  convection.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

$$

MAS

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

038 
WWUS86 KMFR 151808
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1108 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Isolated dry thunderstorms in northeastern California and south
central Oregon, mainly from the Cascades eastward this evening...

.Elevated monsoonal moisture and exceptionally dry conditions at
and near the surface will bring the potential for dry
thunderstorms this evening across northeastern California and 
portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney counties. Thunderstorm
chances west of the Cascades have decreased, allowing for the
cancellation of the fire weather watch. Still, a stray thunderstorm
will be possible west of the Cascades.

ORZ617-623-160600-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T2100Z-180816T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
1108 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR THE CASCADE CREST IN FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES 
IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623...

* Impacts:  Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely
result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could
contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: Along the Cascade Crest in Fire Zone 617 and 623.
  This affects the Timber Crater 6 and 10 fires. 

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
overnight through Wednesday evening. Confidence is moderate in
thunderstorms along and east of the Cascade crest, and low west of
there. Smoke across the area may inhibit the convection.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.


&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ621-622-151915-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.A.0014.180815T2100Z-180816T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Siskiyou Mountains-
Eastern Rogue Valley-
1108 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...621 AND 622...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Fire
Weather Watch.

Smoke will likely inhibit the growth and coverage of thunderstorms
west of the Cascades today, thus the fire weather watch has been 
canceled. That being said, a stray thunderstorm will be possible
through the evening.


$$

CAZ284-285-160600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
1108 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND
285...

* Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely 
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could 
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: Most of Fire Weather Zone 284 and all of Fire 
  Weather Zone 285. This includes portions of eastern Siskiyou 
  County as well as Modoc County

* Thunderstorms: Isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. Confidence in these thunderstorms occuring is moderate
  most locations and high along and near the Warner Mountains.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

$$

ORZ624-625-160600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1108 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND
625...

* Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely 
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could 
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: most of Southern Oregon along and east of the
  Cascades. This includes most of fire zones 624 and 625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms this 
  afternoon and evening. Confidence in thunderstorms in moderate 
  most locations but high in the Cascades and northern Klamath.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

641 
WWUS86 KMFR 152112
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
212 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Isolated dry thunderstorms in northeastern California and south
central Oregon, mainly from the Cascades eastward this evening...

...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday for 
eastern fire zone 617, northeastern 623 and northern 624...

.Elevated monsoonal moisture and exceptionally dry conditions at
and near the surface will bring the potential for dry
thunderstorms this evening across northeastern California and
portions of Klamath, Lake, and Harney counties. The thunderstorm
threat lifts northward on Thursday, and isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms will be possible along the southern and Central 
Oregon Cascades and east.

ORZ617-623-624-160630-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0015.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
212 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617, 623, 624
AND 625... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 617, 623 AND 624...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening.

* Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely 
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could 
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. For Thursday, 
  lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire 
  starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread.
  Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed 
  and holdover fires are possible. 

* Affected area this evening: Along and east of the Cascades
  including eastern Fire Zone 617, and all of 623 and 624. 

* Affected area on Thursday: Along and east of the Cascades north
  of Chiloquin. This includes eastern Fire Zone 617, northeastern
  623, and northern 624. This does include the Timber Crater 6 and
  10 fires.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening. Confidence in thunderstorms is moderate
  most locations but high in the Cascades and northern Klamath.
  Confidence is moderate for tomorrow in the Cascades and northern
  Klamath.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Dry lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new
fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could lead to
rapid fire growth potential.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ284-285-160600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
212 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND
285...

* Impacts:  Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely 
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could 
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area:  Most of Fire Weather Zone 284 and all of Fire 
  Weather Zone 285. This includes portions of eastern Siskiyou 
  County as well as Modoc County


* Thunderstorms: Isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon and 
  evening. Confidence in these thunderstorms occuring is moderate 
  most locations and high along and near the Warner Mountains.

$$

ORZ625-160600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
212 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND
625...

* Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely 
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could 
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: most of Southern Oregon along and east of the
  Cascades. This includes most of fire zones 624 and 625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

718 
WWUS86 KMFR 160530
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1030 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday for 
eastern Fire Weather Zone 617, northern portions of Fire Weather 
Zones 623 and 624, and Fire Weather Zone 625...

.Upper level low pressure approaching from the west is expected to
result in another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
across portions of southwest Oregon. The best potential for
scattered thunderstorms will be in the northern portions of Klamath
and Lake counties.

ORZ617-623-624-161900-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
1030 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617, 623, AND 624...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...
623 AND 624...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning that had been in effect for this evening. A new Red Flag 
Warning has been issued...and is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT
Thursday.

* Impacts: For Thursday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  combined with very dry vegetation is likely result in new fire
  starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread.
  Despite rainfall with some of the thunderstorms, initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.
 
* Affected area on Thursday: In FWZ 617, areas east of Toketee
  Falls and the Willamette National Forest portion. In FWZ 623,
  areas east of Union Creek and from Crater Lake National Park
  northward. In FWZ 624, areas north of Chiloquin, including
  Chemult. This includes the Timber Crater 6 and 10 fires.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected from Crater
  and Diamond Lakes northeastward and across northern Klamath and
  Lake counties. Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area
  is high. Isolated thunderstorms are expected as far south as just
  north of Sprague River, and for some areas east of Summer Lake. 
  Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area is moderate. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Scattered thunderstorms combined with very dry fuels 
create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short 
period of time. 

&&

$$

CAZ284-285-160630-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
1030 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Thunderstorms are no longer expected this evening across eastern 
Siskiyou and Modoc counties.

$$

ORZ625-161900-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1030 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 625...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday.

* Impacts: There is still a possibility for isolated dry
  thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern portion of the area,
  through 11 pm. For Thursday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  combined with very dry vegetation is likely result in new fire
  starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread.
  Despite rainfall with some of the thunderstorms, initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. 

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Northern and eastern
  portions of Fire Weather Zone 625, including portions of Lake and
  Harney counties. More specifically, this includes areas north of
  Paisley and northeast of Valley Falls and Adel.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected across
  northern Lake county. Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in
  that area is high. Isolated thunderstorms are expected for some
  areas east of Summer Lake in Lake and Harney counties. 
  Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area is moderate. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Scattered thunderstorms combined with very dry fuels 
create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short 
period of time.

&&

$$

BTL

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

590 
WWUS86 KMFR 160558
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1058 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday for
eastern Fire Weather Zone 617, northern portions of Fire Weather
Zones 623 and 624, and Fire Weather Zone 625...

.Upper level low pressure approaching from the west is expected to
result in another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across portions of southwest Oregon. The best potential for
scattered thunderstorms will be in the northern portions of
Klamath and Lake counties.

ORZ625-161800-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180816T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1058 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday.

* Impacts: There is still a possibility for isolated dry
  thunderstorms, mainly over the southeastern portion of the area,
  through 11 pm. For Thursday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  combined with very dry vegetation is likely result in new fire
  starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread.
  Despite rainfall with some of the thunderstorms, initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. 

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Northern and eastern
  portions of Fire Weather Zone 625, including portions of Lake and
  Harney counties. More specifically, this includes areas north of
  Paisley and northeast of Valley Falls and Adel.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected across
  northern Lake county. Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in
  that area is high. Isolated thunderstorms are expected for some
  areas east of Summer Lake in Lake and Harney counties. 
  Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area is moderate. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Scattered thunderstorms combined with very dry fuels 
create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short 
period of time.

&&

$$

ORZ617-623-624-161800-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.180816T1800Z-180817T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
1058 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...
623 AND 624...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning that had been in effect for this evening. A new Red Flag 
Warning has been issued...and is in effect from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT
Thursday.

* Impacts: For Thursday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  combined with very dry vegetation is likely result in new fire
  starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread.
  Despite rainfall with some of the thunderstorms, initial attack 
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.
 
* Affected area on Thursday: In FWZ 617, areas east of Toketee
  Falls and the Willamette National Forest portion. In FWZ 623,
  areas east of Union Creek and from Crater Lake National Park
  northward. In FWZ 624, areas north of Chiloquin, including
  Chemult. This includes the Timber Crater 6 and 10 fires.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/hazard

* Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are expected from Crater
  and Diamond Lakes northeastward and across northern Klamath and
  Lake counties. Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area
  is high. Isolated thunderstorms are expected as far south as just
  north of Sprague River, and for some areas east of Summer Lake. 
  Confidence in thunderstorms occuring in that area is moderate. 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Scattered thunderstorms combined with very dry fuels 
create conditions where many fire starts may occur in a short 
period of time.

$$

BTL

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
831 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Minor updates were made to the sky grids for
tonight. Updated sky cover and added some patchy fog mention for
overnight tonight for the coast and coastal waters. Marine stratus
will remain along the coast well into Tuesday morning and may
never fully burn off. For the rest of the area, smoke is still the
hot topic of conversation, at least through Tuesday afternoon.
Unlike the afternoons over the weekend where most areas were able
to take a breath of relatively fresh air, smoke did not lift this
afternoon and even worsened once the afternoon winds increased.
This was a result of more westerly winds, which brought thicker
smoke from the Klondike/Taylor Creek fires east into the Rogue
and Illinois valleys. Air quality has significantly degraded
across the area and an air quality alert has been issued until
further notice for all of Josephine, Jackson, and Klamath
counties.

Beyond Tuesday afternoon, the attention turns to thunderstorm
potential for Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening, including
the potential for nocturnal thunderstorms. For more details on
this, see the previous discussion below. /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...For the 14/00Z TAFs...Along the coast, widespread
IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys will persist through this evening and
overnight, gradually spreading into coastal valleys later tonight.
There may be a brief period of clearing north of Cape Blanco this
afternoon, but confidence is low on this occurring. For the Umpqua
Basin, VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.

Elsewhere, widespread smoke from area wildfires is resulting in
decreased visibilities. MVFR vsbys with local IFR vsbys are likely
this afternoon before possibly improving this evening once afternoon
valley winds increase. Confidence in the extent and timing of
improvement is low, especially given that thicker smoke from the
Klondike/Taylor Creek fires is making it's way east toward the Rogue
Valley. This will likely lower vsbys for KMFR, KLMT, and for
portions of the Shasta Valley. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...At the moment, smoke from local fires is generally
drifting off to the north, but now we're seeing some smoke drift
in from more distant fires to our south. In addition, winds just
above the surface have turned more westerly as expected, and smoke
from Taylor/Klondike is now moving toward Grants Pass. It may not
make it to Medford, but when we have fires in every direction, it
is going to be rare to see significant improvement. By recent
standards, though, it's not too bad in the Rogue Valley right
now. Smoke models do continue to show considerable smoke over the
entire region drifting in all different directions depending on
the level at which it's found, so we aren't expecting a great deal
of change in smoke conditions. However, we are at the mercy of the
wind, and if the west wind is able to pull smoke from the
Taylor/Klondike fires into the Medford area, our conditions could
go downhill in a hurry this evening.

Aside from lingering stratus over portions of the coast and the
smoke, skies are mostly clear. There is an elongated trough
stretching northeast-southwest off our coast, and a shortwave
within this trough is beginning to close off just offshore.
Guidance is unanimous in closing that low off tonight, keeping it
offshore through Wednesday, then bringing it inland later Thursday
and Friday.

As the low sits offshore, we will be under the influence of
southerly flow aloft, and this will gradually increase both
moisture and instability aloft over our area. By tomorrow
afternoon, both are sufficient over northern California for
thunderstorm development. At this time, there is little obvious
trigger, but guidance suggests some convection over northeast
California and southern Lake County late in the day. Model
soundings show all of the moisture to be aloft, and very dry air
in the low levels (inverted-V soundings), and this suggests the
thunderstorms will be dry. This dry lightning threat goes through
the night, as well, and history suggests that if thunderstorms
occur at night, they are more likely to be dry than during the
day. Nocturnal storms are notoriously difficult to predict, and so
confidence in their occurrence tomorrow night is modest at best,
but we judge the potential impact from dry storms to be high
enough to warrant a fire weather watch later tomorrow into
Wednesday morning. See the fire weather discussion below for more
information.

The thunderstorm threat expands considerably for Wednesday
afternoon and evening and includes the possibility of storms
getting over the Cascades to the west side as well. Storms on the
east side are still likely to be dry, but storms in and west of
the Cascades are expected to have more moisture to work with and
thus tend to be wetter. Thunderstorms will probably taper off
Wednesday night into Thursday as drier, more stable air arrives,
but we've still got a slight chance in our northern Cascades.

Friday and beyond: the upper trough moves away and hotter, drier
weather returns. There is also the possibility of a moderate
offshore (northeast) wind event Friday into Saturday as a thermal
trough sets up along the coast. This may affect west side fires
including Taylor, Klondike, and Natchez with gusty ridgetop winds
and poor night time humidity recoveries. This is still a ways out,
but worth keeping an eye on. Guidance also shows the potential of
another closed low dropping in over us Sunday into early next
week. However, models differ significantly in position, strength,
and timing of that low, so we'll just keep an eye on that, as
well for the time being. -Wright

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, 13 August 2018...Small craft
advisory level steep seas and some areas of gusty winds will
continue through tonight across the waters from Cape Blanco south
and north of Cape Blanco beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will
gradually lower tonight and seas are expected to lower below small
craft advisory levels early Tuesday morning. Seas will build some
on Wednesday due to a building west swell. However, these seas
are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels.
Beginning Thursday afternoon and evening, gusty north winds and
steep seas may develop, mainly south of Cape Blanco. Winds and
seas may increase on Friday. There is potential for gales Friday
afternoon and evening south of Cape Blanco along with small craft
advisory level winds and seas from Cape Blanco north. These
conditions may continue into the weekend. -CC

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, 13 August 2018...
The main focus for this forecast cycle was on the potential for dry
thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning east of the
Cascades.   Felt that the most recent model data showed more of a
consensus of elevated convection firing off during the late evening
of Tuesday and into the early morning hours of Wednesday.  Also
looked at the air mass profile over northern California and there is
definitely moisture aloft with a typical inverted V sounding up to
550 mb or so.

Given a consensus for some nocturnal thunderstorms, felt that a fire
weather watch was appropriate for FWZ 285/284/625/624 during Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.  We also extended the fire weather
watch into Wednesday evening because the continued potential for dry
thunderstorms as the trough to the west moves in.  Thunderstorms are
also in the forecast for the majority of the CWA Wednesday except
the coast and the Umpqua region. Dry thunderstorms will remain east
of both the Cascades and fire weather zone 623.

Thursday is a similar story, but we didn't go with dry thunderstorms
because the boundary layer appears to moisten up as the trough
continues to move eastward.  The main area of focus for
thunderstorms will be the upper east side on Thursday.

The concern other than thunderstorms on Thursday will be an increase
in winds across the region.  As the trough moves in, winds on the
east side will pick up and hit critical thresholds.  The question is
how much will the clouds and thunderstorms affect minimum humidities
east of the Cascades.  Usually we won't hit those humidity
thresholds with thunderstorms in the forecast, but the winds could
pose problems to new or existing fires.

Finally,  look for temperatures to remain above average and summer
like for the near and extended term. -Smith

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for ORZ624-625.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for CAZ284-285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-370-376.

MNF/TRW/CZS