High Wind Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

588 
WWUS76 KMFR 271140
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
340 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018


ORZ021-022-271500-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181127T1500Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast-
Including the cities of Bandon, Port Orford, and Gold Beach
340 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS
MORNING...

* Winds...South 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph, highest at the
  headlands. 

* Timing...Peak wind gusts are expected through 5 AM PST.
  

* Locations include...Beaches and exposed areas from Pistol 
  River northward to Cape Arago, including portions of Highway 
  101. 

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult or hazardous, especially for 
  lightweight and high profile vehicles. Loose outdoor objects 
  or materials could get blown about. Tree damage and power 
  outages are possible. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage. Travel will be
impacted, especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

CAZ081-271800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-181127T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Weed
340 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* Winds...South to southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Peak wind gusts are expected this morning.
 
* Locations include...Along Interstate 5 from Weed to Gazelle to just
  south of Grenada. 

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult, especially for lightweight 
  and high profile vehicles. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

ORZ030-031-272345-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-181128T0000Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
340 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...South to southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

* Timing...Peak wind gusts are expected to occur this morning. 

* Locations include...Highway 31 from north of Paisley to south of
  Silver Lake, portions of Highway 395 between Valley Falls and
  Alkali Lake, a small portion of Highway 140 east of Adel, and
  much of the higher terrain.

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult, especially for lightweight 
  and high profile vehicles. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

BTL

149 
WWUS76 KMFR 271442
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
642 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

ORZ021-022-271545-
/O.CAN.KMFR.HW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-181127T1500Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast-
642 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the High
Wind Warning. 

Winds peaked along the coast earlier this morning and are 
expected to remain below warning thresholds through the rest of
the day.

$$

CAZ081-271800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-181127T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Weed
642 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* Winds...South to southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

* Timing...Peak wind gusts are expected this morning.

* Locations include...Along Interstate 5 from Weed to Gazelle to 
  just south of Grenada. 

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult, especially for lightweight 
  and high profile vehicles. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$

ORZ030-031-280000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-181128T0000Z/
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
642 AM PST Tue Nov 27 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Winds...South to southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

* Timing...Peak wind gusts are expected to occur this morning.

* Locations include...Highway 31 from north of Paisley to south 
  of Silver Lake, portions of Highway 395 between Valley Falls 
  and Alkali Lake, a small portion of Highway 140 east of Adel, 
  and much of the higher terrain. 

* Impacts...Travel may be difficult, especially for lightweight 
  and high profile vehicles. 

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected with
higher gusts possible. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

&&

$$
BTL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
910 AM PST Mon Nov 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...No updates are needed for this morning and
afternoon. The main focus of concern will be the potential for
strong winds along the coast later this evening and tonight in
advance of the next front. The latest guidance is in pretty good
agreement showing a pressure gradient between Arcata and North
Bend peaking out around 7.4 mb which could bring strong winds
reaching high wind warning criteria to exposed areas along highway
101, capes and headlands. A decision as to weather or not we'll
upgrade will be made later this morning pending a further look at
more data. Please see previous discussion for more details on the
weather for the next several days. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...For the 26/12Z TAFs...Offshore...VFR conditions will
prevail through this afternoon, then areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in low
clouds and rain will develop this evening ahead of an incoming
front. Over land areas...VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening as high clouds prevent the development of valley stratus,
then areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and rain will spread
inland late tonight into Tuesday morning with higher terrain
becoming obscured. Weygand

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Monday 26 November 2018...South winds
will increase ahead of a strong incoming front, which will move
through Monday night into early Tuesday. This will bring heavy rain,
a slight chance of thunderstorms, gales, and very steep wind-driven
seas to the area. Meanwhile, very long period heavy swell will build
into the region, peaking Tuesday night, then slowly subsiding into
Thursday. These waves will pose a significant risk for damage to
bars and harbors, offshore equipment, and other exposed coastal
infrastructure. More fronts will follow Wednesday into Friday, but
they will not be as strong.

The current marine warnings apply to the system moving onshore
Monday night into Tuesday. For simplicity and clarity, advisories
and warnings for subsequent events have not been issued. However,
Hazardous seas warnings will likely follow the gales on Tuesday.

A high surf advisory has been issued with a mention of sneaker waves
preceding the high surf. More fronts will follow Wednesday into
Friday, but they will not be as strong. Weygand

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM PST Mon Nov 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...High clouds are streaming over the forecast area this
morning ahead of a frontal system that will bring a return to
active weather through the weekend and perhaps beyond. Today will
feature a warming air mass, and all guidance points towards warmer
temperatures today compared to yesterday, even with high clouds
expected through the day. No rain is expected today, and models
continue to trend later with the arrival of precipitation, pushing
it back to early Tuesday morning at the coast.

Model data for this first system, particularly the GFS, have trended
slightly lower with precipitation expected through Wednesday
morning. We still expect a period of heavy rainfall at the coast,
Coast Range, and in Western Siskiyou County high terrain Tuesday
morning. Rainfall rates could approach 0.5 in/hr as some of the high
resolution model data is suggesting. Tuesday will be wet in most
areas, but given the deep southerly flow, the Rogue Valley will
likely take a while to see rainfall on Tuesday.

Speaking of southerly flow, we expect gusty winds for much of the
forecast area on Tuesday, focused at the coast, Shasta Valley, and
portions of the East Side to include Highway 31 near Summer Lake.
The most recent statistical guidance has trended lower for coastal
wind speeds, but given the up/down recent guidance trends, and the
relatively steady run-to-run raw model low level wind fields, we've
maintained the High Wind Watch and will let the dayshift examine the
12Z guidance before making a decision there. Elsewhere, Wind
Advisories cover the Shasta Valley and East Side near Summer Lake.

Snow levels with the first system will be high, generally from
Crater Lake and higher through Tuesday night, lowering to around
5000 feet as precipitation tapers off Wednesday morning.
Therefore, we don't expect major winter weather impacts with this
first system.

The next system arrives Thursday, and models have come into better
agreement with the low center moving into Northern California
Thursday morning. Latest GEFS data confirms this trend towards
better agreement and thus higher confidence in the forecast.
Yesterday's dayshift long-term discussion follows and highlights
the impacts expected with the Thursday system...and the next
system expected over the weekend. It should be noted that it's
becoming more likely that we'll see snow impacts on highway passes
4000 feet and higher with next weekend's weather. Keene

Thursday through Sunday...Models continue to come
into better agreement that an active pattern will continue, with a
low forming off the coast of northern California and pushing
eastward into northern California and southern Oregon. Snow levels
will begin above 5000 feet, but drop to 4500 to 5000 feet by late
Thursday. While the heaviest precipitation looks to be south of
the Medford CWA, we won't be without impacts. Expect an increase
in winds, and steady precipitation Thursday, likely transitioning
to showers late Thursday into Friday after the low fills and
proceeds east of the forecast area.

While the passes have a good chance of seeing some snow, there's
uncertainty as snow levels won't drop substantially until after
the heaviest precipitation has passed. The current forecast is
for snow levels to hover around 5000 feet most of Thursday, which
would bring several inches to the Lake of the Woods area on Hwy
140. There's much more confidence that snow levels will be below
the Crater Lake rim for the duration, potentially bringing a foot
of snow to the rim Thursday into Friday morning.

Late Friday into Saturday the warm front associated with a Gulf of
Alaska low will bring substantial precip, especially to coastal
areas. Based on the current model prognosis (which will probably
change) passes would be affected by this pattern. The main question
mark is precipitation amounts. This will depend on the progression
of a low in the western Pacific, which will draw moisture from the
tropics and feed moisture into the Gulf of AK low. How that plays
out will significantly influence precipitation amounts. The
trailing cold front of the main low will drop snow levels further
early Saturday morning, resulting in potential for widespread snow
showers. -McAuley

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ021-022.
     High Wind Watch from 7 PM PST this evening through Tuesday
     morning for ORZ021-022.
     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ031.

CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
     CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ350-356.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ370-376.