Tropical Storm Warning 1007, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1055 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.UPDATE...Focus over the next 24 hours remain Potential Tropical
Cyclone Seven, currently exiting the Bahamas and moving into the
FL Straits. First good band from the system is quickly moving
across the local Atlantic into the east coast late this eve.

Models are all on the same page, showing a break in activity
behind this band. We should see additional bands rapidly
increasing in coverage from the Atlantic into the east coast
between 2am and 4am tonight, and widespread, prevailing rain with
embedded storms between 8am and 10am.

The expected impacts to South Florida have not changed with the
most recent track:

* RAINFALL: Gusty downpours are possible within any activity from
  here on out, but overall motion should limit flooding potential
  initially. Threat for flooding looks maximized between 5am and
  2pm for the east coast, and Noon to 8pm for the Gulf coast. A
  Flood Watch has been issued for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Collier
  counties starting at 5am based on the most recent guidance.

* WINDS: Probabilities remain low for sustained tropical storm force
  winds across South Florida as the system is not expected to
  strengthen to tropical storm force until is is moving away from
  the region. However, gusts to TS force in squalls will be
  possible.

* TORNADOES: Outermost band already showing some rotation within
  the storms. The threat for isolated tornadoes and waterspouts
  will continue through at least Monday afternoon, likely
  maximizing along the western two thirds of the area late
  evening into Monday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 736 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018/

AVIATION...Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 is located over the
Bahamas early this evening. NHC is forecasting the system to move
west northwest tonight and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
by Labor Day afternoon. This will allow for the winds over the
taf sites to be easterly with speeds increasing from around 10 to
15 knots this evening to around 20 knots on Labor Day. The showers
and thunderstorms will also be on an increase late tonight into
Labor Day across all of the taf sites. Any shower or thunderstorm
that does move through will be capable of producing gusts to
around 35 knots especially on labor day, except at KAPF taf site
where it could get up to around 40 knots. The ceiling and vis will
also fall down into the MVFR or even IFR conditions late tonight
into Labor Day over all of the taf sites.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY: Convective activity has diminished across
South Florida early this evening, likely somewhat of a suppressive
effect of ahead of the newly minted Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seven. Isolated showers and storms will continue across the area
through the late evening hours, with many areas remaining dry.

Beyond late evening, the focus of the next 24 hours will be
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. Currently over the Bahamas, it
is forecast with good confidence to track across the Florida
Straits and into Florida Bay by midday Monday and further into the
eastern Gulf during the afternoon.

THREATS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

RAINFALL: This remains the main impact expected from this system.

A number of parameters remain favorable for high rainfall amounts;
the developing tropical cyclone, very high precipitable water
values, low-level SE winds 30-35 knots transporting this deep
moisture over South Florida, and favorable upper level divergence
on east side of upper low over western Cuba.

The quick forward speed of this system is expected to mitigate
the otherwise excellent heavy rain setup, keeping general forecast
a widespread 2-4", with the heaviest amounts focused along the
east coast. However, this pattern is also favorable for training
bands moving into the coast so significantly higher amounts are
not out of the question. The general time frame for the highest
rainfall amounts is between 06z- 18z, or 2 AM-2 PM. For now, no
Flood Watch has been issued given the ongoing lack of confidence
in a widespread threat.

WINDS: Probabilities remain low for sustained tropical storm force
winds across South Florida as the system is not expected to
strengthen to tropical storm force until is is moving away from
the region. However, gusts to TS force in squalls will be
possible, overspreading the region from SE to NW starting late
tonight.

TORNADOES: Climatology shows that systems moving NW or WNW across
the southeastern Gulf favor at least isolated tornadoes across the
FL peninsula. Model data supports this forecast, with 0-1km
helicities 50-100 m2/s2 from late tonight through Monday
afternoon, picking up along the western two thirds of the area
late evening into Monday night.

TUESDAY: PTC Seven is forecast to be a tropical storm as it moves
further northwest away from the Florida peninsula across the Gulf
of Mexico. Drier midlevel is expected to filter into South
Florida behind it as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states
builds southeast into the western Atlantic and Florida. A few
trailing bands may linger into Tuesday morning, mainly along the
Gulf, but overall expect a return to our typical east flow pattern
of scattered night/morning east coast and afternoon/evening
interior and Gulf coast.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: The mid-level ridge will continue at
least through Thursday, keeping precipitation coverage near normal
with prevailing NE-E wind flow. A low/mid level trough embedded
in the deep easterly flow over the western Atlantic is forecast by
the global models to move west and over Florida Friday and
Saturday, with a general increase in moisture and
rain/thunderstorm chances back into the likely range to end the
upcoming week.

MARINE...Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move from the
Bahamas through the Florida Straits late tonight, lifting
northwestward across the Gulf waters through the day on Monday.

Expect E-SE winds to increase to 20-25 knots over the Atlantic
late this evening, and across the Gulf waters late tonight into
early Monday morning. The current track of PTC Seven takes it
across the local Gulf waters and a strengthening system Monday
afternoon and evening, becoming a tropical storm in this
timeframe.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for the offshore
Gulf waters, with Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of the
Atlantic and Gulf waters. Later forecasts may bring Tropical Storm
Warnings across the Gulf waters if PTC Seven continues along it's
current intensity forecast.

Conditions will deteriorate over all the waters late tonight,
with gusts to tropical storm force possible in squalls along with
rough seas. Gradually improving conditions beginning Tuesday and
lasting through the upcoming week.

BEACH FORECAST...Gusty onshore winds along the Atlantic beaches
will keep a high risk of rip currents at least through Labor Day,
and possibly through the middle of the week as winds stay onshore,
albeit at lower speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  84  77  89 /  70  80  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  83  79  88 /  80  90  50  50
Miami            75  83  77  88 /  80  90  50  50
Naples           73  84  74  90 /  30  90  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for
     FLZ069>075-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657.

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ676.

&&

UPDATE...88/ALM

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1145 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
031545-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1145 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Rainbands associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seven will continue to overspread South Florida from the southeast to
northwest overnight. Gusty squalls embedded in these rainbands will
impact mainly the local Atlantic and east coast tonight. Strong wind
gusts, isolated tornadoes, heavy rainfall leading to localized
flooding, and occasional lightning strikes are possible.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible overnight over the
eastern half of South Florida.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible on all South Florida waters
overnight, especially Atlantic waters.

Wind: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Gulf Waters beyond 20
NM. For the remainder of Gulf and all Atlantic waters, including
Biscayne Bay, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for winds of 20 to
30 knots. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible in squalls
across all of South Florida through the overnight hours.

Flooding: Squalls and training bands of rain will bring a significant
threat for flooding along the east coast late tonight, and the Gulf
coast later on Monday. Substantial ponding and drainage problems may
occur with the heaviest rainfall, leading to travel disruptions and
a few impassable roads. Flooding of canals, streets, and underpasses,
as well as other drainage areas and low-lying spots.

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents on Atlantic
beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven are forecast to
continue into Labor Day Monday as the system is forecast to move out
of the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gusty
squalls will be capable of producing gusts over tropical storm force,
spreading across interior South Florida and the Gulf coast after
daybreak Monday. The main concern will continue to be heavy rainfall,
which is expected to be maximized along the east coast through the
early afternoon hours and on the Gulf coast during the afternoon and
early evening. The threat for isolated tornadoes and waterspouts
will continue through at least Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, and flooding to the
National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>