Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
354 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Both TAFB and WPC 15Z surface analyses show a cold front draped
across the Lake Okeechobee Region, slowly dripping southward
across the State. This slow moving front is producing prefrontal
showers and some thunderstorms across much of South Florida, and
this trend will continue overnight until the front passes around
12Z Wednesday morning. SPC is also in agreement with the chance
for thunderstorms across the region, but there doesn't seem to be
enough instability to support strong/severe or long lived cells.
The primary impacts from the storms will be lightning strikes.

Behind the front, an abundance of dry air filters in along with
high pressure, limiting shower/thunderstorm activity and allowing
for a rather pleasant day Wednesday. Winds from the NNW will
dominate throughout the day tomorrow, gradually increasing
through the late morning to afternoon hours before shifting from
a more northeasterly component by midday Thursday. Cooler temps
are also in store with highs in the 70s for the middle to end of
this week. For Wednesday morning, lows will mostly be in the 60s
with 50s across the Lake Region; however, lows on Thursday
morning will be in the 40s with mid to upper 50s over the east
coast metro areas. Wind chills in the upper 30s to the west of
Lake Okeechobee Thursday morning as well.

Over the weekend, the aforementioned high will push eastward into
the Atlantic waters as a new cold front approaches the Sunshine
State from the north. This will allow for breezier winds to
become more south to southeast, enhancing low level moisture
across the region. This in conjunction with moderated temps will
spark an increase in cloud coverage along with higher POPs towards
the end of the weekend. After FROPA of the second front, drier
and cooler weather is is in store for the early to middle part of
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Weather wise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
across the Atlantic waters overnight through Wednesday afternoon.
Wind wise, SW flow will begin to veer to the NW overnight before
becoming NNW by late Wednesday morning. Towards Wednesday
afternoon, winds will increase to 20-25 kt across the Atlantic
waters and around 18-22 kt for the Gulf waters. This will create
hazardous marine conditions during this time frame and a Small
Craft Advisory will likely be issued later tonight for all of
South Florida waters. The winds will then slowly swing to a
easterly direction with speeds decreasing to 15 kt or less by end
of this week.

Seas will also increase to at least 7 feet in the Atlantic waters
late Wednesday into Thursday morning before decreasing slowly
through end of the week, though some 8 feet seas are definitely
possible. The Gulf seas will remain below 7 feet through the
week, but could increase to 6 feet in the offshore waters
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop ahead of a cold
front this afternoon. Have introduced the mention of VCTS for the
east coast terminals with the trends in development. Some sub-VFR
ceiling are possible if showers and storms move directly terminals,
will amend as necessary as development progresses. Tomorrow winds
become northwest as drier air moves down the peninsula.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  63  72  55  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  67  74  59  74 /  40  10   0   0
Miami            66  75  56  75 /  30  10   0   0
Naples           59  70  47  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...03/Fell
MARINE...03/Fell
AVIATION...33/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1004 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1004 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TODAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are possible today with a cold
front moving through the region. Lightning is the primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Behind the cold front, colder air could bring wind chill values in
the 30s and 40s to portions of interior and Southwest Florida.

Hazardous seas are possible behind the cold front passage as seas may
build up to 7 feet with northerly winds behind the front.

Persistent easterly winds later in the week could bring elevated rip
current risks along the Atlantic beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
345 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2018

FLZ067-071-042130-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
345 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTH
CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EST...

* At 344 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles southeast of Holey Land
  Wildlife Refuge, or 20 miles west of Coral Springs, moving east at
  35 mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Loxahatchee NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2625 8071 2640 8069 2641 8032 2622 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 270DEG 31KT 2632 8060

SPM

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