Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
310 PM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front is approaching the area. As it does, an old
stalled boundary is being lifted northward, allowing moisture to
return to the region today. Along with the moisture, shower and
thunderstorm develop is occurring across South Florida. This
mornings sounding was still showing limited moisture, with PWATs
at 1.12. However, the GFS is showing the PWATs will be on the rise
through the day, climbing to over 1.8 inches, which is apparent
with the convective development. Looking at the sounding from Key
West, the CAPE was over 2600 Joules, along with PWATs of 1.76
inches, coinciding with what the GFS showed advecting into the
area. The freezing level was over 13000 ft on both EYW and MIA
soundings, leaning toward perhaps small hail or moderate hail at
best. The NCAPE was .28, indicating good vertical velocity, which
could lead to some strong downbursts when the storms collapse. It
also would indicate the storms may be persistent over time. So,
the PoPs have been raised over a greater area of the CWA, as well
as the chance of thunderstorms. There is also a chance of isolated
tornados.

After 00z, models are indicating much of the convection will move
offshore, and along the Atlantic coast. Overnight, the front
should move through the CWA, and push most of the convection out
of the Marine area as well.

Behind the front, high pressure is forecast to build to the west.
for the weekend. However, the models are also indicating another
boundary will move through late Sunday, bringing a reinforcing
shot of dry air as a stronger ridge builds to the north. This
strong ridge will absorb the high to the west, and is forecast to
settle off the north Florida coast. This will bring an easterly
flow back to SOuth Florida for the week. As for precipitation, it
will be mostly quiet from Saturday on, with the exception of a
periodic slight chance for showers of the marine areas. There is
also a slight chance for a shower in the Lake region on Sunday and
Sunday night, although it may be too dry for anything but light
accumulations.

In summary, a cold front moving through tonight, with showers and
thunderstorms for much of South Florida this evening, exiting
tonight, to the east. Then mostly warm, quiet, and dry through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is forecast to bring showers and thunderstorms to the
South Florida waters today and tonight, with the convection
pushing eastward overnight. Behind the front, high pressure will
build, bringing mostly quiet weather to the area, with only a
slight chance periodically through the week.

An east wind is forecast to develop with the high on Sunday, and
persist through the week. The wind across the South Florida waters
is forecast to increase to around 15 kts, which would cause seas
to build up to around 5 ft in the Atlantic waters of South
Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
developing east across South FL during the afternoon and
persist into the evening before a weak cold front clears
out the activity later overnight. A few storms could be
strong. VFR should prevail except very brief MVFR possible
in passing storms. Wind will be VRB with possible gusty
winds due to any storms that approach the terminals.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The is a Beach Hazard Statement for coastal northern Collier
County for a Red Tide bloom. This may lead to high respiratory
irritation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry air mass is forecast to move in behind tonight's cold
front. This is leading to forecast minimum RH values to be in the
30s from tomorrow, through the week. There is a possibility of
localized areas seeing RH values dip into the 20s as well. The 20
ft wind is forecast to remain below 15 mph through the week, well
below critical levels for fire wx concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  66  82  68 /  60  40   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  70  86  72 /  70  70  10  10
Miami            88  69  84  70 /  70  70  10  10
Naples           84  68  83  66 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...67/MT
BEACH FORECAST...13
FIRE WEATHER...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
348 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
272000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
348 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...A Few East Coast Strong Storms Possible Today...
...Waterspouts Possible Over the Local Atlantic Waters...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to
lift north across the local Gulf and Atlantic waters early this
morning. This activity is expected to spread inland through the
morning hours, focusing along the east coast metro later this
afternoon and evening. In addition to frequent lightning, a few
strong thunderstorms are possible with gusty winds, small hail, and
locally heavy rainfall.

Waterspouts: Isolated waterspouts are possible on the Atlantic
waters today.

Wind: A few strong storms are possible today, mainly over the local
Atlantic waters this morning and along the east coast metro later
today as activity interacts with the east coast seabreeze. Wind gusts
up to 50 mph will be possible with the strongest storms.

Hail: A few of the strongest thunderstorms, mainly along the east
coast metro and Atlantic adjacent waters, will be capable of
producing small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strengthening high pressure to our north is expected to bring
deteriorating marine conditions over the local Atlantic next week in
addition to an increasing threat for rip currents along the east
coast beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TORNADO          1 ENE CORAL SPRINGS     26.28N  80.25W
04/27/2018                   BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THIS IS A PRELIMINARY REPORT... A TRAINED SPOTTER
            CALLED TO REPORTED A TORNADO IN THE CORAL SPRINGS/
            MARGATE AREA NEAR UNIVERSITY DRIVE AND WILES ROAD. ONCE
            AGAIN THIS IS A PRELIMINARY REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1800078

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LIGHTHOUSE POINT    26.27N  80.12W
04/27/2018  M50 MPH          BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 50 MPH / 43 KNOTS WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERBUG MESONET SITE...PBNBM...
            LOCATED AT NORTH BROWARD MEDICAL CENTER AT 316 PM EDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1800079

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW DEERFIELD BEACH   26.30N  80.12W
04/27/2018  M50 MPH          BROWARD            FL   MESONET

            A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 51 MPH / 44 KNOTS WAS
            RECORDED BY THE WEATHERBUG MESONET SITE... DFBS1 ...
            LOCATED AT THE DEERFIELD BEACH FIRE RESCUE STATION102
            MOC AT 307 PM EDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1800080

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
348 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

FLZ068-168-272030-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
348 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* At 347 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Port Of Palm Beach, or over
  Riviera Beach, moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Palm Beach Gardens, Riviera Beach, Palm
  Beach, Juno Beach, North Palm Beach, Lake Park, Port Of Palm Beach,
  Juno Ridge, Downtown West Palm Beach, Mangonia Park, Fau North
  Campus, Lakeside Green and Westgate-Belvedere Homes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2669 8007 2680 8017 2696 8000 2684 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 225DEG 15KT 2679 8005

67

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
353 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

FLZ067-068-272030-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
353 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* At 352 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Loxahatchee Groves, or near
  Wellington. This storm was slowly moving northeast at 5 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Greenacres, Royal
  Palm Beach, Haverhill, Palm Beach International Airport, Schall
  Circle, Royal Palm Estates, Lake Belvedere Estates, Golden Lakes,
  North County Airport, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country Safari Park,
  Gun Club Estates, The Acreage, Loxahatchee NWR, Plantation Mobile
  Home Park, Caloosa and Stacey Street.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2659 8031 2674 8043 2690 8025 2668 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 236DEG 4KT 2671 8031

RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
421 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

FLZ067-068-272100-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
421 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 420 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles north of Lion Country
  Safari Park, or 12 miles south of Indiantown, moving north at 15
  mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Palm Beach Gardens, Pahokee, Canal Point, North County Airport,
  Fremd Village-Padgett Island, The Acreage, Caloosa and Jupiter
  Farms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2686 8020 2663 8054 2684 8077 2693 8070
      2697 8061 2696 8061 2696 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 158DEG 12KT 2685 8040

RAG