Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
203 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

.AVIATION...
South southeast winds will remain around 11-13 KT along the
immediate east coast metro over the next few hours, affecting
most of the east coast TAF sites. VCTS conds appear likely to
keep developing over TAF sites from KMIA to KPBI. Some of the
storms could produce brief gusty winds and lower vis below 3sm
with heavy rainfall at times. Winds will weaken and veer
southwesterly overnight, veering northwest, then northerly by
early tomorrow. The chance for showers will continue through the
night for mainly the east coast TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1225 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Water vapor imagery loop shows a robust line of convection
stretching from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the central
Florida peninsula. The line was slowly sagging southward. The 12Z
MFL sounding indicated veering winds with height...southerly at
the surface and westerly above 850 mb. This flow pattern continues
to usher in low level moisture, with satellite derived PWAT
already up to 1.5" over nearly the whole CWA. Similar to the past
several days, short range models show convergence along the far
east coast of Palm Beach and Broward counties. This is where
models prog convection to fire later this afternoon. Increased
instability from the southward pressing front, along with this
coastal breeze convergence, will lead to the possibility of
strong, or even some severe storms in Palm Beach County this
afternoon and into this evening. Isolated episodes of 1 inch hail,
wind gusts up to 60 mph, and heavy rain could accompany these
storms. In the update, focused coverage of PoPs along the east
coast and increased into the likely category over eastern portions
of West Palm Beach County. Otherwise, all else looked on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 914 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A frontal boundary lingers over northern portions of the state this
morning with convection over north and central Florida.
Southwesterly flow will continue today, which will act to once again
keep the east coast sea breeze pinned closer to the coast. This
should allow today's convection to develop later in the day with
showers and thunderstorms focused over eastern portions of the
peninsula. The Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern portions
of the forecast area (mainly Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County)
within the marginal risk of severe weather for today. Gusty winds,
heavy rain, lightning, and hail cannot be ruled out with the
stronger storms today.

A mid-level trough will dig into the state by Wednesday, allowing
the front to begin progressing back south and east across the
peninsula of Florida. Cannot rule out showers and potentially a
thunderstorm with the frontal passage, but convection should be
trending downward as the front weakens while crossing the area
Wednesday.

Behind the front, relatively drier conditions will push over the
region on Thursday. Atlantic surface high pressure will once again
build into the region from just east of the Atlantic seaboard of the
United States. This drier pattern will persist into the weekend
before the next frontal system pushes across the country. The next
front will move into the region on Sunday with a passage through
South Florida late Sunday into early Monday. There is some
divergence in the solutions presented by guidance with a more
progressive GFS showing an earlier frontal passage while the slower
ECMWF keeps the front lingering into early next week to close out
the extended forecast period. This front does look to pack a better
punch with showers and thunderstorms possible.

MARINE...
Conditions over the waters, particularly in the Atlantic, may begin
to deteriorate later today into tonight as the front passes through.
Behind the front, winds will increase to advisory criteria over the
Atlantic waters. Conditions will improve late in the week before the
next front comes through during the weekend with increasing winds
and seas.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  79  69  81 /  50  50  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  72  81  71  82 /  20  50  20  10
Miami            72  83  70  83 /  20  40  20  10
Naples           70  83  64  85 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...27/JT
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...27/JT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
140 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

FLZ063-066-101830-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
140 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

* At 136 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Basinger to 10 miles north of Muse. Movement was east at 30 mph.
  Observations from Lake Placid reported winds around 50 mph with
  this line of thunderstorms.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds will be possible with
  these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Moore Haven, Lakeport, Buckhead Ridge, Palmdale, Brighton Seminole
  Reservation, Ortona, Muse, Indian Prairie Canal Mouth and Lake
  Hicpochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2719 8091 2717 8090 2717 8088 2714 8087
      2715 8086 2698 8093 2695 8100 2689 8100
      2688 8096 2678 8100 2677 8155 2703 8156
      2703 8127 2712 8127 2712 8117 2721 8117
      2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 266DEG 28KT 2743 8104 2698 8155

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
224 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

FLZ063-066-101930-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
224 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GLADES COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* At 224 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Buckhead Ridge to near Muse. Movement was east at 15 mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
  these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Moore Haven, Lakeport, Buckhead Ridge, Palmdale, Brighton Seminole
  Reservation, Ortona, Muse, Lake Hicpochee and Okee Tantie
  Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2719 8091 2717 8090 2717 8088 2714 8087
      2716 8086 2715 8085 2699 8103 2678 8100
      2677 8155 2703 8156 2703 8127 2712 8127
      2712 8117 2721 8117 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 271DEG 14KT 2719 8090 2690 8154

AR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

FLZ068-072-168-172-101915-
Coastal Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Metro Palm Beach County FL-
225 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

* At 225 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Hillsboro
  Beach to Palm Aire. Movement was east at 15 mph.

* Small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach,
  Margate, Lighthouse Point, Lauderdale-By-The-Sea, Coconut Creek,
  Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Hillsboro Beach, Sea Ranch Lakes,
  Palm Aire, Broadview-Pompano Park, Boca Del Mar, North Pompano
  Beach, Terra Mar, Pompano Beach Airport and North Andrews Gardens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2638 7995 2618 8004 2621 8024 2637 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 289DEG 11KT 2630 8008 2623 8018

ALM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

FLZ071-072-172-101945-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-
253 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

* At 253 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Sawgrass Mills Mall, or near
  Davie, moving northeast at 10 mph.

* Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
  this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach, Davie,
  Plantation, Sunrise, Tamarac, Margate, Lauderhill, Weston, Coconut
  Creek, Oakland Park, North Lauderdale, Lauderdale Lakes, Dania
  Beach, Cooper City, Wilton Manors, Lazy Lake and Broadview-Pompano
  Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2604 8040 2620 8043 2630 8020 2605 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 237DEG 8KT 2613 8034

ALM