Small Craft Advisory for Winds 2, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

.AVIATION...A few showers will continue to develop offshore and
move inland through the overnight hours along the east coast and
west coast. Strong cells may be accompany with brief gusty winds
and moderate to heavy rainfall. Expect visibility reduction with
MVFR to IFR and brief LIFR CIGs under +RA. Additional development
is forecast for the early morning hours, therefore continued VCSH
with Tempo groups through 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 901 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018/

UPDATE...
A closed low pressure system, now sitting over the eastern Gulf,
continues to draw deep moisture northward across the Florida
peninsula. The 00Z MFL RAOB sounding has typical tropical
characteristics with long and skinny CAPE from 700 mb up to 200 mb
and deep southerly flow. For the remainder of the night, short
term models push additional showers and thunderstorms
periodically across the area, with highest concentration along
the east coast metro region. The main threat with this activity
will be heavy rain leading to areas of urban and small stream
flooding, and occasional lightning strikes. In the update,
increased PoPs along the east coast late tonight, and added a chance
of thunderstorms along the east coast metro and adjacent Atlantic
waters, as conditions are expected to destabilize later tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018/

AVIATION...
Widespread showers, heavy at times, will continue at most of the
Atlantic terminals through 01-02Z, with CIGS/VIS possibly
lowering to IFR-LIFR under +RA. VCTS with MVFR-IFR periods are
also possible tonight and through Monday morning. Variable gusty
winds may also accompany the stronger cells.

Convection will remain possible through the rest of the TAF
period and beyond.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Current water vapor imagery loop displays a large swath of mid
and upper level moisture drifting northward over the Florida
peninsula. This moisture push is associated with a deepening low
pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico, a few hundred miles west
of our CWA. This mornings MFL RAOB sounding showed an increase in
PWAT at 1.84 inches, compared to an inch and quarter 24 hours
ago. CAPE values near 1500 J/KG indicated a decent convective
potential. However, the long and skinny CAPE profile resembles
that of a tropical sounding with an elevated threat of heavy
rainfall. Furthermore, thick cloud cover may damper diurnal
heating, lowering the atmospheric instability. None the less, as
the aforementioned low continues to advect deep tropical moisture
northward through tonight, expect periodic showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Short term models including the HRRR and
Hi-Res WRF indicate enhanced precipitation some time late tonight,
esepcailly over the eastern half of the peninsula.

Early this week: By Monday, the low will have wobbled slightly
further north, positioned in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf.
Anti- clockwise flow around the feature should continue to advect
deep tropical moisture northward over southern Florida. With
slightly less cloud cover, afternoon heating my lead better
instability with a chance of thunderstorms. 500 mb temperatures
begin to lower, down to -10C by the afternoon. This may also help
to destabilize the atmospheric further. Monday night into
Tuesday, the low is forecast remain nearly stationary. Thus, with
similar synoptic conditions in place, expecting deep layer south
southeast flow to persist over our region with abundant tropical
moisture spreading northward. This may again lead to additional
rounds of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The main
threats with with the storms will be heavy rain and cloud to
ground lightning strikes.

Mid to late week: On Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF prog the
500 mb low to become absorbed in the 500mb flow and transition to
an open trough. A stagnant high pressure cell over Bermuda will
keep the trough in place over the southeast CONUS through this
weekend. As the Florida peninsula remains sandwiched between the
high over the Atlantic and the through to the west, south
southeast flow should advect deep tropical moisture northward into
our region, prolonging enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity
for the entire forecast period.

MARINE...
Low pressure over the Gulf is forecast to bring showers, and
possibly a few thunderstorms, to the region for the next several
days. Seas are forecast to run 1 to 3 feet for the South Florida
Atlantic and Gulf waters for most of the week, although the seas
may increase periodically to 4 feet in the Gulf Stream. Small
craft should exercise caution while passing across the Gulf Stream
tonight, where east southeast winds could peak out at around 15
to 20 KT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  81  73  84  73 /  80  30  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  81  75  84  75 /  80  40  60  50
Miami            82  74  84  74 /  80  40  60  60
Naples           84  72  86  72 /  60  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...67/MT

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