Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
629 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
Mid-South this afternoon. The convection south of I-40 is more
isolated and disorganized while the storms farther north have
developed along an outflow boundary from early morning convection.
Vertical wind shear is a bit stronger farther north and may allow
storms to maintain some semblance of organization into the
evening hours. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe
with the primary hazards being gusty winds, dangerous lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall.

The cold front currently extending from the Southern Plains into
the lower Ohio Valley will move south tonight and is forecast to
stall across the Mid-South. A moist airmass will persist in the
vicinity of this boundary with precipitable water remaining near
or just above 2" through tomorrow evening. A pair of anticyclones
associated with the subtropical ridge (one over the Desert
Southwest and the other off the east coast) will be separated by
a weakness associated with the cut-off low over the central Gulf
Coast. This weakness will leave the door open for the shortwave
currently traversing the Central Rockies to affect our neck of the
woods tomorrow afternoon. Enhanced forcing for ascent, a quasi-
stationary front, and a moist column will support scattered to
numerous storms across the CWA. A few strong storms are possible
once again, but relatively weak shear should limit the potential
for severe weather. Again, one of the primary concerns will be
localized heavy rainfall from slow-moving or training storms.

The weakness in the ridge will persist into the weekend, but
geopotential heights will gradually build beginning Saturday.
Chance PoPs are in order for Friday but the aforementioned front
will eventually wash out, resulting in mostly hot/dry conditions
for the Labor Day Holiday weekend. The coolest day (highs in the
mid/upper 80s) this week should be tomorrow given the amount of
cloud cover and precipitation, but building heights and limited
coverage of showers/storms will allow temperatures to slowly warm
this weekend. Highs are forecast to return to the lower 90s this
weekend and could potentially climb higher early next week as the
ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and 500mb heights reaching
954dam.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a disturbance moving
eastward beneath the ridge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
the middle of next week. This feature could eventually be a player
in increasing rain chances across the Mid-South, but there is
still quite a bit of disparity in the global models and details
will remain limited for several days.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period. An
area of thunderstorms continues to move southeast through portions
of the Mid-South along the I-40 corridor. This activity will move
into north Mississippi this evening and gradually die out after
sunset. Some areas of fog may develop overnight. More
thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon mainly
over the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area. Winds will be
mainly light and variable tonight and then be from the south at
around 5 knots on Thursday.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
342 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across the Mid-South, mainly along and north of Interstate
40. The main hazards will be gusty winds, lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday
across the Mid-South. Gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall
will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
541 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

ARZ036-048-292330-
St. Francis AR-Crittenden AR-
541 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...

At 541 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near New Home, or 8
miles north of Hughes, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern St. Francis and southwestern Crittenden Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3518 9044 3504 9029 3502 9031 3499 9031
      3494 9024 3491 9025 3487 9031 3485 9030
      3484 9031 3486 9035 3483 9041 3490 9041
      3490 9051 3507 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 323DEG 16KT 3507 9048

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
547 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

TNZ050-089-090-292330-
Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-Haywood TN-
547 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Hardeman County in southwestern Tennessee...
Northeastern Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Haywood County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 547 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Hillville, or 11
miles southeast of Brownsville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Hardeman...northeastern Fayette and
southeastern Haywood Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3518 8915 3545 8930 3555 8912 3551 8907
      3550 8908 3543 8908 3543 8898 3534 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 325DEG 9KT 3544 8917

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

MSZ001-002-008-TNZ088-300000-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Tate MS-Shelby TN-
621 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Eastern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northeastern Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 621 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Olive Branch,
moving south at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Marshall...eastern DeSoto...northeastern Tate
and southeastern Shelby Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3473 8991 3501 8993 3509 8964 3500 8964
      3499 8958 3478 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 348DEG 17KT 3496 8981

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