Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
714 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms look to be strengthening upstream of
the Midsouth evident on satellite data by cooling cloud tops.
There are numerous outflow boundaries across the area from
convection late last night and earlier today and conditions are
becoming more unstable as temperatures warm. CAPE values range
from 1500 to around 3,000 J/kg with LI's from -5 to -6.5C. As a
result a few strong thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon...but LAPSE rates are marginal and dynamic energy is
limited. Early afternoon temperatures are mainly in the middle
80s although Tupelo, where skies were clear earlier today, is in
the low 90s. Jonesboro is another exception...at only 80 degrees.

A positively tilted trough is in place over the Eastern half of
the US oriented from the Central Great lakes southwest into North
Louisiana. A weak cold front is slowly making its way toward the
Midsouth...but probably will not arrive until late tomorrow.

The overall synoptic pattern is not expected to change much over
the next several days. The trough is expected to deepen through
the work week and become cutoff over the weekend. The cutoff low
may retrograde a little late in the weekend before slowly shifting
along the East coast by midweek. As a result expect near to
slightly cooler than normal temperatures and at least a slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms each day through Monday. Early
next week, as the cutoff low shifts east...a weak ridge may build
in briefly resulting in slightly warmer temperatures. Highs may
climb to near 90 degrees early next week but another cutoff low
looks possible by midweek, bringing temperatures back down below
normal. The Climate Prediction Center has near to slightly cooler
than normal temperatures in both their 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks. Good news for August.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the next
couple hours. Thereafter, most shower activity will end overnight
and VFR conditions will prevail through early morning hours.
Another complex of storms is forecast to move into KMEM near
sunrise and overspread all sites through the morning hours. MVFR
VSBYs and CIGs will be possible with heaviest showers.

Mainly scattered showers tomorrow afternoon, with another round
of storms possible near sundown. Winds generally from the
southwest 3 to 7 knots through the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
326 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-092230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
326 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight.
Gusty winds and excessive rainfall may be associated with the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
645 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

ARZ058-MSZ010-090045-
Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-
645 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
West central Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 644 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near De Witt, or 16 miles west of White River National
Wildlife Refuge, moving east northeast at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Phillips and west central Coahoma Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3414 9108 3419 9109 3420 9109 3420 9107
      3422 9106 3425 9108 3426 9106 3428 9108
      3430 9107 3429 9106 3434 9106 3434 9100
      3447 9100 3447 9105 3455 9105 3455 9075
      3412 9066 3412 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 249DEG 21KT 3423 9136

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
726 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

MSZ015-090115-
Pontotoc MS-
726 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 726 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Pontotoc, moving
east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Pontotoc County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3432 8909 3432 8883 3414 8882 3408 8883
      3408 8913
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 288DEG 13KT 3421 8903

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
741 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

ARZ058-MSZ010-090130-
Phillips AR-Coahoma MS-
741 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
Coahoma County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 741 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Elaine, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Phillips and Coahoma Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3447 9100 3451 9055 3442 9040 3426 9041
      3426 9045 3399 9045 3399 9066 3412 9066
      3412 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 242DEG 27KT 3433 9090