Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1008 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to increase rain chances in the north this
afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short term models indicate a weak shortwave masked in the
building ridge across southern Missouri this morning. This feature
may very well help trigger more afternoon convection across the
northern and eastern counties this afternoon and into the early
evening hours...as convective temperatures are anticipated to be
reached. A few of these storms may be strong or briefly reach
severe limits. Have increased PoPs from roughly Paragould Arkansas
to Parsons Tennessee to reflect this.

All other forecast parameters are currently on track this morning.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

Upper level heights will build over the Midsouth today, behind an
exiting upper low. Despite the increasing heights, the atmosphere
will remain weakly capped to surface-based deep convection. There
appears little or synoptic features on which convection would
focus, and deep layer shear is weak. But should storms form,
they'll have access to surface-based CAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG
and midlevel lapse rates nearing 7C/KM.

The upper level ridge will flatten some on Sunday, exposing the
Midsouth to weak westerlies aloft that will overspread moderate
levels of daytime atmosphere instability through midweek. GFS wet
bias appears for the overnight hours through midweek, but suspect
we will see a few storms persist into the evening periods during
the early to midweek periods.

Upper level ridging will build Wednesday and Thursday, ahead of
an upper level trof arrival on Saturday. Better rain chances and
moderating temperatures arrive next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF Set

Patchy fog at MKL will burn off quickly leaving VFR conditions for
the remainder of the period. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected for the entire period. Although, can't rule out an
isolated TSRA developing near a TAF site during the afternoon or
early evening hours. Southerly winds will remain between 3-9 KTS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1057 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201800-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1057 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe weather across the northern
counties this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging
winds...large hail and heavy rain will be the main threats.

Farther south isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible with
brief heavy rain and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible, with locally
heavy rainfall and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this afternoon and evening
across the northern Midsouth counties.

JAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1239 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TNZ088-089-191830-
Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
1239 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR...

Western Fayette County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 1239 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Bartlett, moving
east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in western Fayette and southeastern Shelby Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3526 8998 3534 8957 3500 8950 3500 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 257DEG 23KT 3516 8989

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

TNZ050>052-191815-
Madison TN-Crockett TN-Haywood TN-
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Madison County in southwestern Tennessee...
Southern Crockett County in northwestern Tennessee...
Haywood County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 1240 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Brownsville, moving
east at 5 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Madison...southern Crockett and Haywood
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3543 8889 3543 8918 3542 8918 3541 8947
      3568 8946 3574 8943 3576 8944 3585 8902
      3584 8902 3584 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 247DEG 6KT 3553 8923