Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Memphis, TN

516 
WWUS54 KMEG 162016
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
316 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TNC023-162025-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
Chester TN-
316 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3500 8838 3500 8914 3523 8896 3527 8879
      3525 8878 3525 8872 3530 8869 3538 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 277DEG 27KT 3522 8864 

$$

TNC069-109-162045-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
Hardeman TN-McNairy TN-
316 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN AND MCNAIRY COUNTIES...

At 315 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Selmer, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Selmer, Big Hill Pond State Park, Adamsville, Pocahontas, McNairy,
Bethel Springs, Middleton, Eastview, Michie, Guys, Ramer, Hornsby,
Stantonville, Milledgeville, Saulsbury, Forty Forks, Rose Creek, Good
Hope, Pebble Hill and Tulu.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8838 3500 8914 3523 8896 3527 8879
      3525 8878 3525 8872 3530 8869 3538 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 277DEG 27KT 3522 8864 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

791 
WWUS54 KMEG 162032
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TNC069-162042-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
Hardeman TN-
332 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3500 8838 3500 8879 3525 8878 3525 8872
      3526 8871 3530 8869 3530 8865 3531 8864
      3538 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 277DEG 27KT 3520 8848 

$$

TNC109-162045-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
McNairy TN-
332 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR MCNAIRY COUNTY...

At 332 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Adamsville, or
near Selmer, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Selmer, Big Hill Pond State Park, Adamsville, McNairy, Bethel
Springs, Eastview, Michie, Guys, Ramer, Stantonville, Milledgeville,
Forty Forks, Rose Creek, Good Hope, Pebble Hill, Tulu, Old Lawton,
Acton, Purdy and Chewalla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8838 3500 8879 3525 8878 3525 8872
      3526 8871 3530 8869 3530 8865 3531 8864
      3538 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 277DEG 27KT 3520 8848 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1227 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1051 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018/

UPDATE...

Temperatures are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than 24
hours across much of the Mid-South. This is attributed to the
enhanced cloud cover and ongoing showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern half of the forecast area. Latest water vapor
satellite imagery depicts a weak shortwave pivoting across the
Memphis area. Latest surface analysis places a stationary boundary
along and near the I-40 corridor. Some low level convection has
begun to fire up mainly along this boundary, noted by a field of
agitated cumulus and light radar returns.

For the rest of the day expect: enhanced cloud cover, scattered
showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will top out in
the mid to upper 80s areawide, yielding about 1200-1800 J/kg of
SBCAPE. A couple of strong storms are possible with gusty winds
up to 45 mph this afternoon, but most activity should remain below
this limit, due to an elevated cap around 600-700mb. Activity
will diminish near sundown with the loss of daytime heating.

Went ahead and knocked high temperatures down a couple of degrees
and adjusted the temperature trend accordingly. In addition, went
ahead and increased POPs near the Tennessee River, where a
cluster of storms has been ongoing. New zones and grids are now
available.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018/

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a weak quasi-
stationary boundary over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms associated
with a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over Oklahoma while
scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two were occurring over
portions of North Mississippi. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

A weak surface boundary will slowly move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley into Thursday. This boundary combined with an
upper level low in the Northwest Florida Gulf Coast, a weak mid-
level trough over the region, and daytime instability will be the
focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-
South. Overall weak shear combined with surface based instability
reaching 2000 J/kg or greater suggest potential for pulse type
showers and thunderstorms. Short term models including CAM models
differ on placement of potential showers and thunderstorms due to
the smaller scale environment associated with summer-like
convection. Nonetheless, I think coverage should be somewhat
better than yesterday. A few strong to perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible through the period with damaging
winds and localized heavy rainfall being the main threats if any
thunderstorms can reach severe limits.

Models indicate the upper level off the Northwest Florida Gulf
Coast will move north and become absorbed in the upper level
trough axis over the Southeast United States. Meanwhile, an upper
level low will develop over Missouri and drop into the Tennessee
Valley this weekend bringing additional shower and thunderstorm
chances to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the upcoming weekend.
Long term models indicate the upper level synoptic pattern will
continue to remain unsettled over the Mississippi Valley well into
next week as a series of upper level shortwaves within northwest
flow aloft move along the periphery of an upper level ridge axis.
This pattern would favor shower and thunderstorm chances each day,
perhaps associated with MCS's.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

Scattered SHRA/TSRA enhanced by passing weak disturbances will
affect the sites over the next 24 hours...with the greatest window
of occurrence expected from midday through mid evening. Cigs and
vsby will generally be VFR with brief periods of MVFR...though
TUP may see a more persistent MVFR deck late. Winds will be light
and variable with a slight increase in speeds during convection
and a directional bias from the north.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
441 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-171200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
441 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm is
possible late this afternoon into early evening across the Mid-
South. Damaging winds along with localized heavy rainfall are the
threats if a thunderstorm develops and reaches severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
218 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TNZ090-161945-
Hardeman TN-
218 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

Hardeman County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 218 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Bolivar, moving
east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Hardeman County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3509 8919 3536 8918 3543 8887 3543 8884
      3539 8884 3535 8880 3533 8879 3531 8879
      3526 8878 3515 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 250DEG 11KT 3528 8897

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             BOLIVAR                 35.26N 89.00W
05/16/2018  M0.75 INCH       HARDEMAN           TN   PUBLIC

&&

WLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
233 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLIVAR                 35.26N 89.00W
05/16/2018                   HARDEMAN           TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORT TREES DOWN AND LARGE LIMBS NEAR
            HIGHWAY 64.

&&

WLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
234 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TNZ088-162000-
Shelby TN-
234 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Shelby County in southwestern Tennessee...

At 233 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Cordova. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Shelby County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3526 8985 3531 8964 3512 8964 3500 8965
      3500 8986
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 194DEG 4KT 3516 8976

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TNZ019-162000-
Dyer TN-
235 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR...

Central Dyer County in northwestern Tennessee...

At 235 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Miston, or 7 miles
east of Caruthersville, moving south at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in central Dyer County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3621 8929 3595 8933 3595 8960 3611 8962
      3613 8959 3614 8959 3616 8960 3618 8962
      3619 8949 3621 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 342DEG 10KT 3615 8954

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSZ007-008-011-012-162015-
Tunica MS-Panola MS-Tate MS-Quitman MS-
248 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tunica County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
Western Tate County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 248 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Little Texas, or 17
miles west of Senatobia, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tunica...northwestern Panola...western Tate
and northern Quitman Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3434 9039 3476 9041 3476 9020 3472 9020
      3476 9017 3475 9016 3476 9013 3473 9010
      3474 9009 3472 9007 3473 9006 3471 9005
      3471 9001 3434 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 326DEG 6KT 3457 9028