Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Memphis, TN

077 
WWUS54 KMEG 152020
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MSC161-152030-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-180515T2030Z/
Yalobusha MS-
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3395 8993 3416 8993 3417 8965 3394 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 274DEG 6KT 3406 8983 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1226 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1040 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018/

.UPDATE...Morning Update.

.DISCUSSION...

Forecast looks on track we should begin to see more cumulus
development over the next couple of hours as intense sunshine
increases surface instability. Any thunderstorms that manage to
develop may contain frequent lightning, heavy rain and possibly
locally gusty wind.

We should see near to slightly below record highs again this
afternoon across the Midsouth...though records look the least
likely across East Arkansas where clouds are most abundant.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a quasi-
stationary boundary across portions of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level low is
located in the Gulf of Mexico near Northwest Florida. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms across
portions of Southeast Missouri, along the MO/AR border then back
through Eastern Oklahoma. Rain free conditions persist across the
Mid-South early this morning with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in
the lower 70s across most locations. Convective chances through
Friday will remain the primary forecast challenge in this
morning's forecast issuance.

An upper level ridge centered over the Mid-South is expected to
gradually break down over the next 12-24 hours. A Mesoscale
Convective System (MCS) over Eastern Oklahoma will gradually
evolve into a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV). Short term models
indicate mainly rain free conditions are anticipated across the
forecast area until this afternoon when convective temperatures
are reached during maximum heating.

At this time it appears that convective coverage may remain
isolated at best across much of the area with a potential for
scattered coverage west of the Mississippi River as an MCV moves
across Arkansas later today. Moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates, 0-6 km bulk shear values around 20 kts, and surface based
CAPE values in around 3000 J/kg indicates pulse type thunderstorms
will be the dominant convective mode if showers/thunderstorms
develop. An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm may be
possible with damaging wind being the threat if any thunderstorm
can reach severe limits. Any outflow boundaries from last night's
upstream convective activity could perhaps be a focusing mechanism
for this afternoon's convective chances.

Otherwise, another day of near record to record high temperatures
are expected across the Mid-South today as temperatures will rise
into the lower 90s by this afternoon.

Short term models indicate the upper level low in the Gulf of
Mexico will move NNE into the Southeast United States. Mid-level
heights will weaken across the Lower Mississippi Valley with a
weak cold front dropping into the region and becoming quasi-
stationary. This will be the focus for better shower and
thunderstorm chances across the Mid-South for Wednesday through
Friday. Long term models indicate this boundary will push back
north for the upcoming weekend with rain chances dropping
slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

A slow moving/weak upper disturbance in the Ozarks will track
through the TAF sites this period. Convection appears disorganized
with isolated coverage early and then scattered coverage late.
For now have VCTS and/or VCSH mentioned with VFR cigs. Better
threat for thunderstorms at MKL and TUP just after 16/18z. Patchy
MVFR vsby near sunrise at TUP...MKL and JBR. Winds will be light
overall with a general southwest through north component.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
435 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
435 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm is possible
late this afternoon into early evening across the Mid-South.
Damaging winds along with localized heavy rainfall are the threats
if a thunderstorm develops and reaches severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MSZ020-021-151945-
Tallahatchie MS-Yalobusha MS-
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR...

East central Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 216 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Paynes, or near
Charleston, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in east central Tallahatchie and southwestern Yalobusha
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 9014 3401 9012 3410 8979 3390 8979
      3390 8992 3383 8993 3382 8998 3381 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 281DEG 14KT 3394 9004

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

TNZ054-055-152015-
Henderson TN-Decatur TN-
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Henderson County in southwestern Tennessee...
Decatur County in Middle Tennessee...

At 235 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Decaturville, or 13
miles west of Linden. This storm was nearly stationary.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Henderson and Decatur Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3539 8798 3539 8802 3542 8807 3538 8812
      3539 8817 3538 8820 3541 8822 3542 8825
      3568 8824 3572 8804 3568 8802 3562 8804
      3552 8797 3551 8797 3548 8799 3547 8802
      3545 8804 3542 8803 3541 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 239DEG 2KT 3557 8807

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MSZ015-023-152015-
Pontotoc MS-Chickasaw MS-
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR...

Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
North central Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 244 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Pontotoc, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Pontotoc and north central Chickasaw Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3407 8914 3408 8919 3438 8905 3438 8893
      3436 8893 3436 8883 3427 8882 3404 8885
      3404 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 222DEG 22KT 3418 8904

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MSZ004>006-009-014-152045-
Tippah MS-Tishomingo MS-Union MS-Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 253 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Hinkle, or 9 miles
north of Booneville, moving east at 5 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tippah...northwestern Tishomingo...
northeastern Union...Alcorn and Prentiss Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8827 3450 8853 3451 8854 3450 8890
      3499 8866
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 274DEG 6KT 3479 8861