Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A deep surface low is centered over E IL this afternoon while a
strong cold front extends through MO into NW AR. A broken line of
thunderstorms has developed ahead of the front in MO and AR. The
low will continue tracking northeastward while the cold front
moves quickly through the forecast area late this afternoon and
evening. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will quickly
progress across the Midsouth along and just ahead of the cold
front late this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a semi
discrete cell or two to form just ahead of the line, especially
over NE AR late this afternoon. Damaging winds, large hail, and
possible tornadoes are all potential threats with any of these
storms. The best chance for tornadoes will be over NE AR and MO
Bootheel. All activity should be east of the forecast area before
midnight as the front pushes into middle TN and northern AL.

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday supporting an
unseasonably cold polar airmass advecting in from the NW. Frost
will be likely Wednesday night with some areas experiencing a
freeze.

Another system will provide rain Friday possibly mixing with or
changing to snow near the MO/KY border by Saturday morning as cold
air advects into the area. There is another risk for frost or
freezing temperatures Saturday night. More showers are possible by
the end of the weekend.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs

TSRA had entered the MEM TRACON at discussion time and should exit
a hour or two prior to the onset of the inbound push. Primary
short term concern is winds associated with TSRA outflow. TMEM radar
showed a 50 to 70 KT rear inflow jet over east central AR, 35 NM
west of MEM at FL025.

By 03Z, main concern is wake low formation over eastern AR. This
type of feature often isn't well modeled. The HRRR continued to
depict a 3 MB pressure depression over north central AR at 03Z,
but with little to no reflection in the wind field.

VFR to prevail overnight and Wednesday, with winds becoming nearly
calm for Wednesday evening's MEM inbounds.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
808 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-050315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
808 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is an enhanced risk for severe weather across portions of
the Mid-South for tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the
main threats.

A wind advisory is in effect for most of the Mid-South through
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Frost is likely across much of the Midsouth Thursday morning with
subfreezing temperatures possible in West Tennessee especially
near the Tennessee River.

Freezing temperatures are possible again on Saturday morning
across northern portions of the Mid-South.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

TLSJr

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
821 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

MSZ013-015-021>024-040145-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Monroe MS-Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-
Chickasaw MS-
821 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...
Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 821 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms were producing winds at least 40
mph was located along a line extending from near Tula to near Duck
Hill. Movement was east at 55 mph.

People in southeastern Lafayette...southern Pontotoc...northwestern
Monroe...Calhoun...eastern Yalobusha and Chickasaw Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3387 8966 3432 8946 3411 8882
      3408 8882 3408 8872 3406 8866 3381 8875
      3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8904
      3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 272DEG 48KT 3425 8944 3356 8974

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
838 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ALBANY              34.49N  89.02W
04/03/2018                   UNION              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED TO SEVERAL BUSINESSES, SIGNS, AND ROOFS
            IN NEW ALBANY.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N NEW HARMONY         34.46N  88.93W
04/03/2018                   UNION              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 348 JUST EAST OF 121. RELAYED
            THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MJ

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