Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
407 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A strongly-forced convective line was moving through north MS and
west TN at 4 AM. The atmosphere ahead of this line was only
modestly unstable, with elevated CAPE below 300 J/KG, rooted in a
layer around 925 mb, above strongest veering wind profiles.

Should the forced line encounter unstable boundary layer parcels
through sunrise, an brief weak tornado will be possible southeast
of an Oxford to Corinth line. Given the coverage of rain ahead of
the forced line, updrafts will likely remain rooted in an elevated
layer and tornado threat minimal.

Given the impending arrival of a midlevel dry slot after sunrise,
the expiration time of the Flood Watch for the Missouri bootheel
and northwest TN has been move back 12 hours to 7 AM today.

The remainder of the forecast holds predominately tranquil weather
for the Midsouth through the end of the week, as northwesterly
flow transitions to southwesterly through Saturday.

The medium range models continue to differ with shortwave energy
digging into the southern plains from the northern and central
Rockies this weekend, resulting in minor downstream timing
differences for rainfall early next week. Overall consensus
points toward Midsouth rain chances returning Sunday, peaking
late Monday and exiting by late Tuesday. Midweek periods should
see fair conditions with medium range models showing nearly zonal
flow aloft over a dry midcontinental airmass extending from the
plains into the lower MS River valley.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Cycle

MVFR conditions will dominate over the period as low ceilings and
fog plague the region as showers and storms transit. A front will
bring showers and storms during the early morning hours, but will
end by mid morning. Wind gusts will subside as winds become more
from the NNW by the afternoon in the wake of the front. Showers
will be intermittent throughout the day as an upper trough lags
over the region. Conditions slowly improve by late in the period.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Madison-
     Obion-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-021015-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
310 AM CDT Thu Nov 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A short-lived weak tornado or two will be possible over north
Mississippi south of an Oxford to Tupelo line prior to sunrise
this morning.

Locally heavy rainfall may produce flash flooding, mainly east of
the Mississippi River prior to sunrise.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
342 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSZ021-022-010930-
Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-
342 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR...

Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 342 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 45
mph was located near Scobey, or 11 miles southeast of George Payne
State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Calhoun and Yalobusha Counties should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3387 8977 3390 8977 3390 8993
      3416 8985 3416 8972 3419 8972 3419 8951
      3416 8951 3416 8925 3407 8924 3407 8914
      3381 8914 3381 8919 3372 8919 3372 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0842Z 224DEG 52KT 3400 8980

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
357 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSZ002>004-013>015-010945-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Tippah MS-Marshall MS-Union MS-Benton MS-
357 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Marshall County in northwestern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Benton County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 357 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 45
mph was located 9 miles north of Bethlehem, or 10 miles southeast of
Holly Springs, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Lafayette...Pontotoc...Tippah...eastern Marshall...
Union and Benton Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3416 8925 3416 8951 3436 8952 3499 8935
      3500 8882 3486 8882 3486 8875 3407 8894
      3407 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 228DEG 48KT 3469 8929

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
424 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSZ015-022-023-011015-
Pontotoc MS-Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
424 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR...

Southern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 424 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 45
mph was located over Pittsboro, or 16 miles west of Houston, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Pontotoc...Calhoun and Chickasaw Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3416 8941 3416 8886 3414 8882 3408 8882
      3407 8872 3381 8872 3381 8893 3375 8893
      3375 8903 3374 8904 3374 8919 3372 8919
      3372 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 228DEG 44KT 3393 8929

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
443 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

MSZ004-005-009-014>016-024-011030-
Pontotoc MS-Tippah MS-Union MS-Monroe MS-Lee MS-Alcorn MS-
Prentiss MS-
443 AM CDT THU NOV 1 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR...

Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 443 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 45
mph was located over Ecru, or 8 miles northwest of Pontotoc, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Pontotoc...Tippah...Union...northwestern Monroe...Lee...
Alcorn and Prentiss Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3447 8846 3447 8854 3409 8854 3409 8853
      3406 8853 3406 8872 3408 8872 3407 8924
      3499 8891 3499 8837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 228DEG 49KT 3436 8907

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