Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.DISCUSSION... /issued 313 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

The pesky, upper-level cyclone continues to spin over the Lower
Mississippi Valley this morning, bifurcating the broad subtropical
ridge that extends from the Desert Southwest into the western
Atlantic. Strong quasi-zonal flow aloft persists from the Central
Rockies into the Great Lakes atop this ridge, maintaining a storm
track well to our north. However, the ridge over the western CONUS
will build early this week, amplifying the flow and setting up
northwest flow aloft across the region as a trough digs over the
east. This pattern will persist through Friday but the ridge is
progged to eventually spill over the top of a deep trough moving
slowly across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The global models
are having quite the time resolving the pattern beyond day 5 as
each run seems to show a different solution. Thus, the weekend
forecast remains low confidence. So what does all of this mean?

Expect hot and humid conditions across the Mid-South today.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s across most of the area
with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s by peak heating. Evapo-
transpiration processes will help maintain higher dewpoints over
eastern AR (where rice farms are more prevalent). This will push
heat indices up to 105-107F across northeast AR into the MO
Bootheel. A small Heat Advisory will be needed for some areas west
of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, expect heat indices
generally between 97-103F this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, but most areas will
remain dry. Any convection that develops shouldn't last long after
sunset.

The cut-off low  finally ejects to the northeast tomorrow as a
shortwave trough moves across the Ohio Valley, signaling the
transition to northwesterly flow aloft. The cold front attendant
to this upper-level trough will remain to our north through
Tuesday, but scattered convection is expected to develop in the
warm sector during the afternoon hours with more organized
activity associated with the front Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The front is expected to stall across the area on Wednesday,
lingering in the vicinity through the remainder of the week. Rain
chances increase to 40-60% across much of the area Tuesday night
through Thursday and continue in the 20-40% range Friday through
Sunday. As stated above, the weekend forecast remains low
confidence given the spread in model solutions. Will have to watch
how this pattern evolves over the next few days.

The good news is that temperatures are expected to be slightly
below normal beginning midweek as the front moves into the area
and rain chances and cloud cover increase. Expect highs in the
lower 90s again on Tuesday, with max temps only in the mid to
upper 80s the remainder of the forecast period. Overnight lows
will be in the low/mid 70s the next few days, dipping into the
upper 60s to lower 70s by late week.

Johnson

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 to 30 hours with the
exception of KMKL, where some patchy fog may develop during the
overnight hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon. Best chances will be at KJBR and KTUP thus have
mentioned vicinity wording in the TAF. Winds will generally be
southwest between 3-10 KTS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Mississippi-Poinsett-
     Randolph.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-072200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
255 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees this
afternoon across portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7 PM.

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible through late
afternoon, mainly over northeast Arkansas and northeast
Mississippi. Locally heavy rain and strong winds may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Heat indices may approach 105 degrees again on Tuesday, mainly
across northeast Arkansas. Otherwise, the probability for
widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
232 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N POCAHONTAS            36.26N 90.97W
08/06/2018                   RANDOLPH           AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NORTH OF POCAHONTAS. THOMASVILLE AND
            OLIVE RD FOR MAIN AREA OF DAMAGE.

&&

MRM

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