Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
213 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Soaring heat is in full swing across the Midsouth this
hour...with portions of northwest Tennessee reaching criteria then
cooling off quickly from line of storms. Reluctant to cancel the
advisory though as plenty of afternoon is left for them to rebound
back. Out in the western counties untouched by thicker clouds
and/or storms..a few locations have topped 110F.

With regards to convection a few cells have reached near severe
limits off radar...but with no reports of damage or hail. Rainfall
from Lake to Henry counties has been a welcomed 1 to 2.5 inches.

For tonight through Tuesday...short term CAM's suggesting
multiple rounds of convection over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Current and overnight activity influenced by the passing MCV in
the Lower Ohio Valley...and then tomorrow and Tuesday influenced
by a descending cold front seen in the Plains. Both features
likely to bring a threat for a few strong or severe storms as
dewpoints remain rich over the region...75F+. Concerns for
additional heat related products will now become very
questionable as extensive cloud cover from activity will play a
big role in temperatures. Highs appear to reach 90 to 94F
tomorrow...which could allow an hour or two of 105F heat indices
along and west of the Mississippi River...but widespread values
seen today aren't favored. With that in mind will allow the
current advisory to expire at 9pm tonight...with the night crew
making a final call on whether areas will need one tomorrow.
Tuesday will be FROPA day...fingers crossed...with slightly better
coverage of storms over the southern two-thirds of the CWA. Heat
indices are forecast to stay below 105F area wide.

Wednesday and Thursday...post frontal airmass will provide some
relief...with highs expected to be at seasonal normals or a couple
degrees below. Dewpoints will fall a good five degrees as
well...ranging from 67F to 72F. Heat indices will generally be in
the 95-100F range. Convection coverage will become more isolated
and mainly during the afternoon hours across the western
counties Wednesday...overspreading the remaining Midsouth
counties on Thursday. Lows will range from the upper 60's to low
70's...cooler than what has been seen at MEM for over two weeks.

Next weekend...Rain chances will ramp back up in the long-range
as both the Euro and GFS show an increase flow from the northwest.
In fact, 500mb wind speeds could reach 50kts over the far
northern counties...a late May and June scenario. Coupled with
dewpoints near 70F...passing shortwaves could generate better
storm organization. High and low temperatures this period will
stay close to normal...generally low 90s and low to mid 70s.
Afternoon heat indices for now remaining 95-102 degrees.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

/18z TAFs/

Forecast challenge today is timing and extent of SHRA/TSRA affecting
TAF sites. Scattered SHRA/TSRA already developing across the area.
Will include afternoon VCTS at all sites. A weak upper system should
bring another round of SHRA/TSRA in the 03-06Z period. Considered
TEMPO groups for the evening round, but given uncertainty in
timing/details, will hold off for now and continue VCTS at TAF sites
into late evening/overnight hours. Will amend and ramp up if
guidance/observed trends converge better. Otherwise, mostly VFR with
light W to S winds and possible spotty BR before daybreak Monday.

GW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
209 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-162115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
209 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values are expected to exceed 105 degrees across the
Midsouth for the remainder of this afternoon and early evening.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms north of a
Forrest City Arkansas to a Savannah Tennessee line through this
evening. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday
as a cold front influences the region. Damaging winds and heavy
rainfall will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of the Midsouth
this afternoon and evening.

JAB

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