Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Memphis, TN

026 
WWUS54 KMEG 290142
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
842 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

TNC005-045-053-079-095-131-183-290230-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-180629T0230Z/
Weakley TN-Dyer TN-Gibson TN-Benton TN-Obion TN-Henry TN-Lake TN-
842 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR WEAKLEY...NORTHERN DYER...NORTHERN GIBSON...NORTHERN BENTON...
OBION...HENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES...

At 842 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Energy to 7 miles southeast of Wyatt, moving
south at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Martin, Union City, Paris, Caruthersville, McKenzie, Fulton, Paris
Landing State Park, Reelfoot Lake State Park, Tiptonville, Newbern,
Dresden, South Fulton, Dyer, Greenfield, Ridgely, Gleason, Troy,
Kenton, Rutherford and Obion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage across western Kentucky. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a 
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8821 3615 8821 3615 8853 3612 8853
      3612 8865 3607 8869 3608 8968 3614 8959
      3624 8971 3625 8953 3632 8962 3636 8951
      3650 8954 3650 8949 3646 8946 3650 8942
      3651 8931 3650 8806 3644 8806 3616 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 233DEG 26KT 3687 8802 3681 8916 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

904 
WWUS54 KMEG 290159
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
859 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

TNC005-045-053-079-095-131-183-290230-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-180629T0230Z/
Weakley TN-Dyer TN-Gibson TN-Benton TN-Obion TN-Henry TN-Lake TN-
859 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR WEAKLEY...NORTHERN DYER...NORTHERN GIBSON...NORTHERN BENTON...
OBION...HENRY AND LAKE COUNTIES...

At 859 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from near Fulgham to near South Fulton, moving south at 55 
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Martin, Union City, Paris, Caruthersville, McKenzie, Fulton, Paris
Landing State Park, Reelfoot Lake State Park, Tiptonville, Newbern,
Dresden, South Fulton, Dyer, Greenfield, Ridgely, Gleason, Troy,
Kenton, Rutherford and Obion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage across southwest Kentucky. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a 
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
These storms are producing destructive winds and large damaging hail.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.
 
Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8821 3615 8821 3615 8853 3612 8853
      3612 8865 3607 8869 3608 8968 3614 8959
      3624 8971 3625 8953 3632 8962 3636 8951
      3650 8954 3650 8949 3646 8946 3650 8942
      3651 8931 3650 8806 3644 8806 3616 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 357DEG 5KT 3668 8886 3645 8895 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 00z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

UPDATE...Evening update.

Updated to adjust the forecast in accordance with the newly issued
Severe thunderstorm watch. This is a highly uncertain event, but
it appears another MCS has the potential to move into West
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas this
evening/overnight. Damaging wind will be the primary threat but
large hail is also possible. Ongoing convection could help
stabilize the airmass ahead of the approaching MCS limiting the
threat...keep an eye to the North.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018/

.Widespread Dangerous Heat Expected Again on Friday....

Currently, temperatures at 3PM are in the low to upper 90s across
much of the area. The exception being portions of west Tennessee
that have seen convective activity this afternoon. Heat index
values across much of the area have been at or above 105 F for
much of the day. Jonesboro has been the hot spot with values
hovering around the 110 F mark over the past couple hours. A few
showers and thunderstorms have begun to fire up across west
Tennessee, but should remain below severe limits.

Short term...rest of today through Sunday...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through sundown
for areas in west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. The HRRR
continues to bring another complex of storms into our area around
midnight, but the general consensus has been towards a dry
forecast. Current thinking is that the ridge will build in
tonight, and any weaker convection will not be able to overcome
the cap. Went ahead and left a 20 POP in across the area to
account for the uncertainty.

Friday will be another scorcher. Forecast dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 70s coupled with temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. At this point, areas across northeast Arkansas will likely
meet or exceed 110F tomorrow, prompting a heat warning. Since an
advisory is already out, no watch will be issued. Will let the mid
shift make the final call on the heat warning as models may back
off on the moisture field. Some showers and thunderstorms may
form under the weakest part of the ridge tomorrow afternoon,
mainly near the Tennessee River.

Models are hinting at an inverted trough sneaking under the ridge
over the weekend. This will likely increase rain chances and
cloud cover from east to west, which should offset some of the
heat for eastern portions of the area. For areas along and west
of the Mississippi River, more heat advisories may be needed.

Long term...Monday through Independence Day...
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the interior U.S. during
this time period. There is still some question as to how strong
the ridge will be for next week, as it may flatten out some.
Nonetheless, hot and humid conditions will continue with heat
index values above the triple digit mark during this time frame.
General airmass thunderstorms will be isolated and sporadic
through this period as well.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z TAFs

VFR through the period...with the exception of convection early on
at TUP bringing conditions down to IFR/MVFR. Then next complex of
storms located just south of STL will move into at least VC at JBR
and MKL by midnight. Not sure on exact coverage by that time or
whether the activity will hold together near MEM. Later in the
period late isolated convection is possible near sunset again.
Winds light from the south or southwest with stronger gusts early
at TUP.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Chester-Fayette-Hardeman-
     Haywood-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Hardin-Henderson-Henry-
     Lake-Obion-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
539 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-300045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
539 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A heat advisory remains in effect for a large portion of the Mid-South.
Heat index values will rise above 105 degrees resulting in
dangerous heat conditions.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today...mainly across
West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas. The
main threats from these storms will be damaging winds and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Afternoon heat indices will exceed 105 degrees over the Mid-South
on Friday. A heat advisory has been issued. The hot and humid
conditions will continue into early next week. Heat advisories may
need to be extended.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur on Friday with best
chances occurring over Northeast Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this morning through early
afternoon across portions of west Tennessee.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MSZ024-290030-
Monroe MS-
644 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR...

Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 644 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Amory, moving
southwest at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Monroe County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3382 8872 3409 8872 3409 8829 3392 8822
      3381 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 025DEG 17KT 3396 8849

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     TUPELO                  34.26N 88.73W
06/28/2018  M58.00 MPH       LEE                MS   ASOS

            MEASURED 58 MPH WIND GUST AT TUPELO AIRPORT.

&&

MRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
708 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MSZ015-016-023-024-290045-
Pontotoc MS-Monroe MS-Lee MS-Chickasaw MS-
708 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR...

Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 708 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Okolona, moving
southwest at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Pontotoc...northwestern Monroe...southwestern Lee and
northeastern Chickasaw Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3438 8913 3437 8893 3436 8893 3436 8883
      3437 8881 3399 8864 3399 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 035DEG 19KT 3399 8876

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
716 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MSZ023-024-290100-
Monroe MS-Chickasaw MS-
716 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 716 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Houston, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southwestern Monroe and Chickasaw Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 8872 3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903
      3374 8904 3374 8919 3381 8919 3381 8914
      3399 8914 3399 8857 3368 8852 3368 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 043DEG 14KT 3382 8898

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
720 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALTILLO                34.38N 88.69W
06/28/2018                   LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN SALTILLO.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INGOMAR                 34.41N 89.04W
06/28/2018                   UNION              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN INGOMAR.

&&

MRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
725 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MSZ022-023-290115-
Calhoun MS-Chickasaw MS-
725 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR...

Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 725 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Vardaman, or 10
miles west of Houston, moving west at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Calhoun and southwestern Chickasaw Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3402 8949 3396 8914 3374 8913 3374 8919
      3372 8919 3372 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 086DEG 13KT 3386 8919