Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.UPDATE...
See the 00z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The Midsouth was becoming increasingly unstable ahead of an
approaching cold front extending from southeast Missouri into
central Arkansas. Radar showing spotty convection forming along
and ahead of the boundary with one lone severe storm. In the wake
of the overnight precipitation skies were currently a mix of cu
and sun over the area with temperatures in 80s. Dewpoints were in
the low 70's and winds were breezy from the west southwest. SPC
meso-analysis was indicated CAPE amounts of 1000 to 2000 j/kg with
effective bulk shear of 35 kts.

For this afternoon through tonight...CAMs are agreement that
current storms will intensify and congeal into a broken line over
the remaining afternoon hours and into the evening as the front
tracks through the region. A few storms likely to produce damaging
winds and large hail. A SVR watch has been issued through 9pm for
most of the CWA. Activity should scour out the atmosphere across
the northern and western counties by late this evening...leaving
higher pops to remain across North Mississippi after midnight.
Overnight lows will drop to around 70F with some patchy fog
forming. General rainfall totals will range between a half to
potentially two inches.

Friday through Sunday...models are in very good agreement that the
current upper level low in northern Missouri with drop into the
St. Louis area tonight...then slowly track towards the Eastern
Great Lakes through Saturday becoming an open wave. This will
leave a west northwest upper flow over the Midsouth of 30-50kts
with embedded shortwaves likely to trigger new storms. The first
of these disturbances will arrive tomorrow night and a second late
Saturday into early Sunday. So rain chances will continue to be
stout this weekend shifting from the southern counties to the
northern counties as the aforementioned upper low pulls northeast.
A few strong to severe storms will also suffice in this better
sheared environment. Temperatures from precipitation and lingering
cloud cover will be seasonal with highs ranging from the mid 80s
to near 90...with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Monday through next Thursday...expected daily rain chances to
slowly dwindle this period as long range model solutions show
upper heights building. 90F+ temperatures will return along with
triple digit heat indices. Heat advisories may be required for
portions of the area.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Thunderstorms will continue to move east across west TN and
portions of north MS over the next several hours with generally
dry conditions anticipated at the forecast terminals beyond 05z.
There is some indication that IFR ceilings will develop over
north MS late tonight and patchy fog will be possible in areas
that clear out. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the
period Expect scattered storms again on Friday, mainly across
north MS. Winds will increase from the west by mid- morning.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-222115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
this evening across a large portion of the Midsouth. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats. Localized heavy
rain will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms will be possible again Friday
into Sunday with passing disturbances. Damaging winds...large hail
and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

Triple digit heat indices are anticipated to return to the
Midsouth next week. Heat advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this afternoon and evening
and again throughout the weekend.

JAB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARSONS                 35.65N 88.12W
06/21/2018                   DECATUR            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS GEORGIA AVE AND 7TH STREET. TIME IS
            RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
755 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E SAVANNAH            35.22N 88.17W
06/21/2018                   HARDIN             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON 1400 OLD TOWN LOOP

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
800 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE FARMINGTON         34.96N 88.39W
06/21/2018                   ALCORN             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES UPROOTED IN THE KENDRICK COMMUNITY.

&&

AJC