Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Typical early/midsummer pattern will prevail through the next
seven days. A 500mb height ridge center will shift east from NM to
TX by Thursday, and to the Ohio River valley by Sunday.

Midsouth rain chances will gradually decrease, if not diminish
altogether, by Thursday. This pattern will continue through
Monday. With 700mb temps near 10C, the atmosphere will remain
capped to deep moist convection, except during the heat of day.
Where isolated storms manage to form, a few may persist into the
early evening. GFS continues to exhibit a nocturnal wet bias under
the upper ridge, and expect the nighttime hours to predominately
dry.

Late week afternoon heat indices will approach 105 degrees over
northeast AR, where higher dewpoints pool over the delta. Heat
advisories may be needed as we approach late week.

Looking out beyond the extended into the middle part of next
week... GFS and ECMWF depict a retrograding cut-off upper low
over the Great Basin and northwest flow aloft from the northern
plains into the Carolinas. Such a pattern would likely bring a
cold front (i.e., near-normal temperatures) and increased rain
chances to the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue for much of the forecast period.
Scattered thunderstorms are currently over southern portions of
East Arkansas and northeast Mississippi with more development
expected this afternoon and early this evening. Winds will be
mainly from the south at around 10 knots this afternoon
diminishing to around 5 knots tonight.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-132300-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
350 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists late this afternoon and
early evening. Damaging wind and possible large hail will be the
main threats from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few storms could become strong to severe on Wednesday. Damaging
wind and possible large hail will be the main threats from these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

ARZ009-018-122200-
Greene AR-Clay AR-
432 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Central Clay County in eastern Arkansas...

At 432 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located 7 miles northwest of
Rector, moving east at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Greene and central Clay Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3640 9008 3639 9007 3617 9025 3625 9062
      3640 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 273DEG 23KT 3631 9042

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
456 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

ARZ018-122230-
Greene AR-
456 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...

At 456 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Oak Grove Heights,
or 7 miles north of Paragould, moving east at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Greene County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3624 9032 3620 9032 3620 9029 3607 9032
      3608 9036 3611 9062 3626 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 270DEG 18KT 3615 9056