Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Memphis, TN

May 20, 2018Craighead County, Greene County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 20, 2018, 3:09 PM CDT for Craighead County, Greene County, Arkansas. It was in force for 51 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 20, 2018, 3:09 PM CDT (20:09 UTC)
Expired: May 20, 2018, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 20, 3:25 PM CDT	HAIL 1	S Paragould, AR	PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
May 20, 3:36 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Paragould, AR	QUARTER SIZED HAIL HIGHWAY 69 EAST OF PARAGOULD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 20, 12:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1256 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

121 
WUUS54 KMEG 202009
SVRMEG
ARC031-055-202100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0124.180520T2009Z-180520T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
  Central Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 309 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Crowleys
  Ridge State Park, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jonesboro, Paragould, Bono, Brookland, Crowleys Ridge State Park,
  Lake Frierson State Park, Oak Grove Heights, Walcott, Apt, Valley
  View, Farrville, Halliday, Cary, Bethel, Finch, Lorado, Herndon,
  Noxburn, Herman and Cotton Belt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9065 3614 9035 3571 9065 3571 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 250DEG 30KT 3600 9063 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

1 follow-up statement

142 
WWUS54 KMEG 202040
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

ARC031-202050-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180520T2100Z/
Craighead AR-
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3613 9053 3614 9035 3597 9047 3597 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 250DEG 30KT 3609 9033 

$$

ARC055-202100-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180520T2100Z/
Greene AR-
340 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY...

At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Cardwell, or 7
miles southeast of Marmaduke, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported quarter size hail on 
         highway 69 east of paragould.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Paragould, Oak Grove Heights, Cotton Belt, Halliday, Bethel and
Noxburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 9053 3614 9035 3597 9047 3597 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 250DEG 30KT 3609 9033 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 20, 12:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 12:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

HRRR and 12z NAMNEST showing a round of convection forming north
of I-40 in the Mississippi Delta early this afternoon when
convective temps of 86-87F are reached. Later a second round may
skirt across the northern counties tonight as a shortwave moves
into the Ozarks. Severe storms will be possible with each
round...along with 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts. Have increased
PoPs across the northern half of the CWA from noon through
midnight. All other forecast parameters are on track this morning.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

A warm and humid early summer weather pattern will prevail for
the upcoming week. For today, the Midsouth will remain under the
northwest periphery of a weak upper ridge centered over the
Southeast, exposed to weak west/southwest flow aloft. NAM Bufr
soundings depicted surface-based CAPE reaching 3000 J/KG by early
afternoon, accompanied by 850-500mb lapse rates near 7C/KM and
eroded convective inhibition.

Similar to Saturday, the "trigger" for storms may be a subtle
feature borne from upstream storms. Early morning HRRR runs
depict early afternoon storms developing over the delta of east
AR and northwest MS, ahead of a weak shortwave lifting out of the
Arklatex. Inverted-V type soundings suggest a microburst wind
threat and aforementioned steep midlevel lapse rates and CAPE will
be favorable for large hail. As is typical in a weak sheer summer
environment, storm movement and coverage will likely be driven by
mesoscale storm evolution. Slow-moving and/or merging storms may
lead to localized flash flooding, while nearby areas remain dry.
With loss of surface heating, storms should dissipate by
midevening.

Atmosphere will remain favorable for additional storms Monday and
Tuesday, as a weak midlevel wave lifts northwest out of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, weakening the upper ridge. 700mb temps
only prevail around 6-7C through Tuesday, but warm slightly as
the upper ridge amplifies midweek, ahead of height falls over the
western US. Convective temps nonetheless will be attainable in
the mid to late week periods, with scattered storms favoring the
afternoon hours in absence of deep layer shear.

Looking to next weekend, the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models depict a
northern branch trof dropping into the middle and upper MS River
valley, phasing with a southern branch upper low lifting north
from the Gulf of Mexico. While the details have yet to settle out,
the consensus points toward slightly cooler and more rainy
conditions next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION.../18z TAFs/

VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals outside of
thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR vsbys are expected with on station
thunderstorms. Convective coverage should become numerous this
afternoon and evening, therefore have included tempos for
thunderstorms at all locations. Convection should diminish by mid
evening with vsbys improving back to VFR.

Convective chances should again increase late tonight into Monday
morning in association with a shortwave lifting to the northwest
of our area. The best potential should be near KJBR, where tempos
have again been included. Vicinity thunder has been added to KMEM
and KMKL for this time period.

Additional convection can be expected later Monday along residual
outflow boundaries. Coverage is still uncertain therefore
maintained vicinity mention for now along with VFR cigs/vsbys.
This will be refined in later forecasts once confidence in
coverage and timing increases.

Winds should remain light and variable, outside of thunderstorms,
through the period. Severe winds and hail cannot be ruled out this
afternoon through mid evening with the most intense storms.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 11:34 AM CDT, 3 hours 35 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-211845-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
1134 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A slight and marginal risk for severe storms are expected this
afternoon and this evening across a large portion of the Midsouth.
Damaging winds...large hail and locally heavy rainfall will all
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered strong and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early evening
hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

JAB

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 20, 1:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              36.08N 91.30W
05/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

&&

JAB

Local storm report, May 20, 1:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             BLACK ROCK              36.11N 91.11W
05/20/2018  M1.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   PUBLIC

            HAIL RANGED DIME SIZE TO GOLFBALL.

&&

JAB

Local storm report, May 20, 2:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             MCDOUGAL                36.44N 90.39W
05/20/2018  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

&&

JAB

Local storm report, May 20, 2:28 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
228 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 NE BLACK ROCK         36.13N 91.08W
05/20/2018  M1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN DAVIDSONVILLE STATE PARK.

&&

MRM

Local storm report, May 20, 3:00 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             NE BONO                 35.91N 90.80W
05/20/2018  M1.75 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

MRM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 12:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	46 min
May 20, 1:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	43 min
May 20, 1:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lawrence	32 min
May 20, 1:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	52 min
May 20, 1:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	65 min
May 20, 1:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence	48 min
May 20, 1:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	12 min
May 20, 1:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	54 min
May 20, 2:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence	40 min
May 20, 2:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	48 min
May 20, 2:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lawrence	21 min
May 20, 2:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Lawrence	45 min
May 20, 2:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Greene, Lawrence	53 min
May 20, 2:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	27 min
May 20, 2:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	60 min
May 20, 2:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	46 min
May 20, 3:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Mississippi	117 min
May 20, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	22 min
May 20, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden	47 min
May 20, 4:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.