River Flood Warning 96, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
903 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
clear and dry across the Midsouth tonight. Winds are less than
5mph with calm conditions expected during the early morning hours.
Temperatures are mostly in the low to middle 40s. Areas near the
Tennessee River may dip into the middle 30s prior to sunrise
resulting in patchy frost. Forecast is in good shape, no
significant changed this evening.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

Low stratocumulus clouds are decreasing over west TN this
afternoon while an unseasonably brisk westerly wind continues.
Expect the winds to diminish this evening as the strong surface
low to the northeast continues to move away and a broad high
builds in from the west. Decreasing winds, clear skies, and an
existing cold airmass will allow for enough radiational cooling to
develop frost near the TN River and KY border late tonight and
early Tuesday morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for that
area.

Warmer weather is expected Tuesday as the surface high moves to
the southeast and a warm front develops just north of the forecast
area. This scenario will provide breezy and much warmer
southwesterly winds.

A cold front will move through Wednesday and provide only a small
chance of showers in parts of northeast MS. A slight temperature
drop is expected behind the front Thursday before rising to near
normal by Saturday.

A deep upper low and associated surface low will track across the
lower MS valley this weekend. Rain chances will be likely from
mainly Saturday night into Sunday with lower chances of lingering
rain into Monday. Some instability will be available for
thunderstorms over portions of east AR and north MS Sunday and
Sunday night. Confidence is too low to access any severe potential
at this time.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will persist for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be from the west at 5 to 10 knots before becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds will be become more southwesterly on
Tuesday at around 10 knots with some higher gusts in the
afternoon.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Decatur-Gibson-Hardin-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Obion-
     Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-172230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
322 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Areas of frost are likely near the Tennessee River and Kentucky
border late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Areas of frost are likely near the Tennessee River and Kentucky
border early Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

SWC